The Oscar ballots have already been turned in, so it doesn’t really matter what happens this weekend in terms of building momentum that influences the consensus. What will be, will be. It might help decide some wins, but it might not. There are still so many open questions. Will Mikey Madison defeat Demi Moore in Best Actress? Will it be Sean Baker for Best Director, or will Brady Corbet prevail in a twist?
On Saturday, it’s the Scripter, Spirit, and Cinema Audio Society awards. On Sunday, it’s the SAG Awards
The Spirit Awards can be watched on YouTube here. They begin at 2pm California time.
You can check out the full list of nominees here. We will be recording the winners.
I don’t think I’ll even do predictions for these. I have no idea what they’ll do and no interest since they went “gender neutral” with ten nominees for acting.
The Scripter
Here are the nominees:
James Mangold and Jay Cocks for “A Complete Unknown,” adapted from Elijah Wald’s nonfiction book “Dylan Goes Electric! Newport, Seeger, Dylan, and the Night That Split the Sixties”
Peter Straughan for “Conclave,” based on the novel by Robert Harris
RaMell Ross and Joslyn Barnes for “Nickel Boys,” an adaptation of Colson Whitehead’s Pulitzer Prize-winning novel “The Nickel Boys”
Clint Bentley and Greg Kwedar (screenplay and story) and Clarence Maclin and John “Divine G” Whitfield (story) for “Sing Sing,” drawn from John H. Richardson’s Esquire article “The Sing Sing Follies”
Chris Sanders and Peter Brown for “The Wild Robot,” based on Peter Brown’s beloved children’s book of the same name
Prediction: Nickel Boys
Cinema Audio Society
Nominees:
A Complete Unknown
Deadpool & Wolverine
Dune: Part Two–predicted winner
Gladiator II
Wicked: Part One
Animated:
Inside Out 2
Moana 2
Mufasa: The Lion King
The Wild Robot–Predicted winner
Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
The SAG Awards Predictions
Best Actor–Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
Best Actress–Mikey Madison, Anora, alt. Demi Moore, The Substance
Supporting Actor–Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
Supporting Actress–Zoe Saldana, Emilia Perez
Ensemble–Anora, alt Wicked
I realize I’m cheating but I genuinely do not know. I won’t brag either way, I promise.
American Cinematographers Society
You can watch the ASC Awards live by visiting their website and signing up.
THEATRICAL FEATURE FILM (Sponsored by Keslow Camera)
- Jarin Blaschke for Nosferatu
- Alice Brooks, ASC for Wicked
- Lol Crawley, BSC for The Brutalist–predicted winner
- Stéphane Fontaine, AFC for Conclave
- Greig Fraser, ASC, ACS for Dune: Part Two
- Edward Lachman, ASC for Maria
- Phedon Papamichael, ASC, GSC, GCA for A Complete Unknown
Other awards for the weekend:
22nd – NAACP Image Awards (NAACP)
23rd – Guild of Music Supervisors Awards
23rd – Motion Picture Sound Editors Awards (MPSE)
The only thing this weekend will tell us is whether Anora is a super strong consensus pick, like Everything Everywhere All At Once or if it is more divided. If Anora wins at SAG, or Mikey Madison, that could be a sign. Otherwise, it’s still a mostly unpredictable race.
Here are this week’s predictions:
Best Picture
1. Anora
2. Conclave
3. The Brutalist
4. A Complete Unknown
5. Wicked
6. Dune: Part Two
7. Nickel Boys
8. The Substance
9. I’m Still Here
10. Emilia Pérez
Directing
1. Anora, Sean Baker
2. The Brutalist, Brady Corbet
3. A Complete Unknown, James Mangold
4. The Substance, Coralie Fargeat
5. Emilia Pérez, Jacques Audiard
Actress In A Leading Role
1. Mikey Madison, Anora
2. Demi Moore, The Substance
3. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
5. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Actor In A Leading Role
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist
2. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
3. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Actress In A Supporting Role
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked
3. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
4. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
5. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown
Actor In A Supporting Role
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain
2. Yura Borisov, Anora
3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Writing (Original Screenplay)
1. The Substance
2. The Brutalist
3. Anora
4. September 5
5. A Real Pain
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
1. Conclave
2. Nickel Boys
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Sing Sing
5. Emilia Pérez
International Feature Film
1. France, Emilia Pérez
2. Brazil, I’m Still Here
3. Denmark, The Girl With The Needle
4. Germany, The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
5. Latvia, Flow
Animated Feature Film
1. The Wild Robot
2. Flow
3. Inside Out 2
4. Memoir Of A Snail
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Documentary Feature Film
1. Porcelain War
2. Black Box Diaries
3. No Other Land
4. Sugarcane
5. Soundtrack To A Coup D’etat
Cinematography
1. The Brutalist
2. Nosferatu
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Emilia Pérez
5. Maria
Film Editing
1. Conclave
2. Wicked
3. Anora
4. The Brutalist
5. Emilia Pérez
Music (Original Score)
1. The Brutalist, Daniel Blumberg
2. Conclave, Volker Bertelmann
3. Emilia Pérez, Clément Ducol And Camille,
4. Wicked, John Powell And Stephen Schwartz
5. The Wild Robot, Kris Bowers
Production Design
1. The Brutalist
2. Wicked
3. Dune: Part Two
4. Nosferatu
5. Conclave
Costume Design
1. Wicked
2. Nosferatu
3. Conclave
4. Gladiator Ii
5. A Complete Unknown
Sound
1. Wicked
2. Dune: Part Two
3. A Complete Unknown
4. The Wild Robot
5. Emilia Pérez
Makeup And Hairstyling
1. The Substance
2. A Different Man
3. Emilia Pérez
4. Nosferatu
5. Wicked
Visual Effects
1. Dune: Part Two
2. Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes
3. Alien: Romulus
4. Better Man
5. Wicked
Live Action Short Film
1. Anuja
2. I’m Not A Robot
3. A Lien
4. The Last Ranger
5. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Animated Short Film
1. Wander To Wonder
2. Beautiful Men
3. In The Shadow Of The Cypress
4. Magic Candies
5. Yuck!
Documentary Short Film
1. Instruments Of A Beating Heart
2. Death By Numbers
3. I Am Ready, Warden
4. Incident
5. The Only Girl In The Orchestra
Music (Original Song)
1. El Mal, From Emilia Pérez
2. The Journey, From The Six Triple Eight
3. Like A Bird, From Sing Sing
4. Mi Camino, From Emilia Pérez
5. Never Too Late, From Elton John: Never Too Late
