Welp, I should have stuck with my gut. After switching from Timothee Chalamet and Demi Moore to Adrien Brody and Mikey Madison, the SAG-AFTRA voters chose to honor the formers for their more traditional, though entirely deserving performances. It makes sense in hindsight that Chalamet portraying Bob Dylan against Brody, who is in a four-hour, complex epic about architecture, was going to be tough for AFTRA voters, as would Demi Moore’s career narrative going against Mikey Madison (a newcomer not many know about). It’s two categories many believe are razor thin, and the contradicting precursors point to this being the case.
What SAG Solidified
Zoe Saldana and Kieran Culkin have SWEPT, both seemingly unstoppable in their respective categories, not missing a beat this entire season. Very little evidence to suggest anything other than victory for Emilia Perez and A Real Pain.
What SAG Did NOT Solidify
In addition to the two lead categories that feel fairly competitive now, SAG-AFTRA added just a little bit of doubt into the Best Picture race. Going into the ceremony, Anora seemed unstoppable with guild wins, having taken the PGA, DGA, and WGA in a seven-day period. However, Conclave having won the BAFTA for best film, and now SAG Ensemble, has absolutely solidified itself as the number two for Anora. The main question now, is if it is enough for Berger’s film to potentially overtake Baker’s, or if this is all just a sign of a strong second place position for Conclave.
Though my gut is often wrong (evidenced by these precursors), I am sticking with Baker’s film as of now. Winning PGA (on a preferential ballot), DGA, and WGA is a strong combo), with the only project having done that and lost the Oscar being Brokeback Mountain.
Nevertheless, winning SAG is big, and if it was eligible, Berger’s film for sure would have won WGA. It’s a tough call to make undoubtedly, but as of now, I am sticking with Baker’s film.
As stated before, Best Actor and Best Actress are incredibly tight., with Madison and Brody winning BAFTA but Moore and Chalamet winning SAG. Stats point towards Brody and Moore having the narrow edge, while I agree that the former is favored due to how much academy voters seem in tune with The Brutalist, the latter between Madison and Moore is a true tossup. Against my better judgment, I tilt it ever so slightly to Madison due to my prediction that Anora wins Best Picture. This is a real nail biter though.
Final Predictions Preview
Be sure to look out this week for my final Oscar predictions piece (where one by one I will give thoughts on what I believe is favored), and if you want to follow me on twitter, the link is here
