It’s been a long, strange trip, Oscarwatchers. I don’t think these will be my last predictions ever. But it’s highly probable they will be the last predictions on this site, which, if I decide to end this year, I will keep as an archive somewhere so this will be preserved in amber for as long as cyber dust lasts.
The year began with Emilia Perez being our frontrunner, at least that is how it seemed. A perfect Oscar hothouse flower, Weinstein Co./now Netflix style. It was going to win. We’d have had our standing ovation movie at SAG. It would have been the ultimate Fuck-You to Trump. History would have been made. Jamie Lee Curtis, Annette Bening, and others advocating for trans rights would be euphoric to watch this moment unfold.
Once Emilia Perez was derailed, The Brutalist became THE FRONTRUNNER. But it’s three hours long and that’s much too long for a consensus of thousands. I so admire Brady Corbet and wish nothing but the best for him. But that movie, like Nickel Boys, is more of a moving art installation than a movie – brilliant and worthy but not exactly a consensus crowdpleaser.
Sean Baker’s success, should he prevail this year, is only partly due to the wild and crazy ride of my favorite film of the year. It has to do with the right time and right place for an artist who has never been caught up in the oppressive culture of identity-first filmmaking. He is being rewarded more for his own dedication to making his weird kind of movies. That would have been true for Tarantino in 2019. If a perfect storm of events hadn’t turned the tide.
Then, Anora won PGA/DGA/Critics Choice and WGA, which flipped the race on its head. But sometimes wins can be dress rehearsals to see how people respond, like when politicians throw out thought balloons to gauge the public reaction. Perhaps the wins for Anora felt wrong to voters, which might explain why Anora did not do well at the SAG awards. At least at BAFTA it won Actress.
It is not yet known whether there is a slight backlash to Anora’s sudden and surprising dominance in the race, but if it does not prevail on Sunday, that’s why. It will be a 1917-like situation where the voters don’t want the movie that’s winning to win. I personally won’t vote against the trifecta of the PGA/DGA/ Critics Choice. But it’s certainly possible. The only movie that can win, according to stats, is Conclave.
Can some movie come out of nowhere and surprise on a preferential ballot? Of course. But it is something we would be feeling by now. A consensus is a hard thing to influence. It takes time. The problem for Conclave is it never had a narrative. I feel like it caught its narrative late. It wasn’t what we all thought it would be, that a woman makes a better leader. Instead, it was how well it tells the story of corruption in institutions. For whatever reason, that message began to resonate slowly. So it is the only film, I think, that could potentially take Anora down.
As I discussed with Mark Johnson on last night’s podcast, we’ll know the vibe early on by what wins various down-ballot awards. If, say, something other than The Substance wins Makeup (not likely), then Demi Moore may not win Best Actress.
But in general, the general consensus tends to be right. Here are my final predictions for this year. I don’t expect I’ll do very well, as it is a very unpredictable year. But here we go.
Best Picture
1. Anora — predicted winner
2. Conclave — potential spoiler
3. The Brutalist
4. A Complete Unknown
5. Wicked
6. Dune: Part Two
7. Nickel Boys
8. The Substance
9. I’m Still Here
10. Emilia Pérez
Directing
1. Anora, Sean Baker — predicted winner
2. The Brutalist, Brady Corbet — potential spoiler
3. A Complete Unknown, James Mangold
4. The Substance, Coralie Fargeat
5. Emilia Pérez, Jacques Audiard
Actress In A Leading Role
1. Mikey Madison, Anora — predicted winner
2. Demi Moore, The Substance — but it will probably…
3. Fernanda Torres, I’m Still Here
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked
5. Karla Sofía Gascón, Emilia Pérez
Actor In A Leading Role
1. Adrien Brody, The Brutalist–predicted winner
2. Timothée Chalamet, A Complete Unknown –potential spoiler
3. Ralph Fiennes, Conclave
4. Colman Domingo, Sing Sing
5. Sebastian Stan, The Apprentice
Actress In A Supporting Role
1. Zoe Saldaña, Emilia Pérez–predicted winner
2. Monica Barbaro, A Complete Unknown — in a shocker, if A Complete Unknown does better than expected.
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked
4. Isabella Rossellini, Conclave
5. Felicity Jones, The Brutalist
Actor In A Supporting Role
1. Kieran Culkin, A Real Pain–predicted winner
2. Yura Borisov, Anora–in a shocker of an Anora sweep
3. Guy Pearce, The Brutalist
4. Edward Norton, A Complete Unknown
5. Jeremy Strong, The Apprentice
Writing (Original Screenplay)
1. Anora — probably won’t win with director, but I’m predicting this because I don’t know whether Anora will win Picture or Director.
2. A Real Pain — The BAFTA winner could prevail.
3. The Substance — A potential spoiler.
4. September 5
5. The Brutalist
Writing (Adapted Screenplay)
1. Conclave–potential winner
2. Nickel Boys–has lots of support and could win here.
3. A Complete Unknown
4. Sing Sing
5. Emilia Pérez
International Feature Film
1. France, Emilia Pérez–I still think this is the winner.
2. Brazil, I’m Still Here–but it could easily be this.
3. Denmark, The Girl With The Needle
4. Germany, The Seed Of The Sacred Fig
5. Latvia, Flow
Animated Feature Film
1. The Wild Robot–it seems unbeatable.
2. Flow–a beautiful film that should win.
3. Inside Out 2
4. Memoir Of A Snail
5. Wallace & Gromit: Vengeance Most Fowl
Documentary Feature Film
1. No Other Land (pro-Palestine Hollywood might go for this)
2. Porcelain War (pro-Ukraine Hollywood might go for this)
3. Black Box Diaries
4. Sugarcane
5. Soundtrack To A Coup D’etat
Cinematography
1. The Brutalist–it’s probably this
2. Nosferatu–it could be this
3. Maria–and in a crazy twist, it could be this.
4. Dune: Part Two
5. Emilia Pérez
Film Editing
1. Conclave–without the ACE, we only have BAFTA so Conclave it is
2. Wicked–it could easily be this.
3. Anora–it would be this if it wasn’t also Sean Baker. They might not want to give him that many Oscars.
4. The Brutalist
5. Emilia Pérez
Music (Original Score)
1. The Brutalist, Daniel Blumberg–it has a lovely, memorable score.
2. Conclave, Volker Bertelmann–my favorite score.
3. Emilia Pérez, Clément Ducol And Camille,
4. Wicked, John Powell And Stephen Schwartz
5. The Wild Robot, Kris Bowers–watch out for this.
Music (Original Song)
1. El Mal, From Emilia Pérez–predicted winner
2. The Journey, From The Six Triple Eight
3. Like A Bird, From Sing Sing
4. Mi Camino, From Emilia Pérez
5. Never Too Late, From Elton John: Never Too Late
Production Design
1. Wicked–predicted winner
2. The Brutalist–could be.
3. Dune: Part Two–should be.
4. Nosferatu
5. Conclave
Costume Design
1. Wicked–predicted winner.
2. Nosferatu–long shot.
3. Conclave
4. Gladiator II
5. A Complete Unknown
Sound
1. Wicked–departing with the consensus for this.
2. Dune: Part Two–It will probably be this.
3. A Complete Unknown
4. The Wild Robot
5. Emilia Pérez
Makeup And Hairstyling
1. The Substance-predicted winner.
2. A Different Man-challenger.
3. Emilia Pérez
4. Nosferatu
5. Wicked
Visual Effects
1. Dune: Part Two–predicted winner.
2. Kingdom Of The Planet Of The Apes–if they really hated Dune.
3. Alien: Romulus
4. Better Man
5. Wicked
Live Action Short Film
1. Anuja–picking this only because Netflix is backing it.
2. I’m Not A Robot–this one is very good.
3. A Lien
4. The Last Ranger
5. The Man Who Could Not Remain Silent
Animated Short Film
1. Wander To Wonder–picking this because of the star power involved.
2. Beautiful Men–this one is probably the best.
3. In The Shadow Of The Cypress
4. Magic Candies
5. Yuck!
Documentary Short Film
1. I Am Ready, Warden–predicted winner
2. Death By Numbers
3. Instruments Of A Beating Heart
4. Incident
5. The Only Girl In The Orchestra
That’s pretty much it, friends. I’ll be posting a No Guts, No Glory a bit later today. Good luck everyone.
