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2026 Oscar Predictions – Best Actress Edition

Are We Really Doing This Again?

Sasha Stone by Sasha Stone
March 7, 2025
in BEST ACTRESS, BEST PICTURE, featured, News
0

The future of this site remains uncertain and conditional. We’re not quite sure yet how we’ll be moving forward after this past year. It is more about finding a way to make it affordable and not a time suck. I know there are many people (not the haters who pollute the site in the comments and drive reasonable ones away) but the “silent majority,” if you will, many of whom have been coming here since the beginning, since they were teenagers. But nothing lasts forever. I’m not going to live forever. And so we beat on.

The Oscars themselves are in the most precarious position they’ve ever been, as is Hollywood in general, and almost no one feels safe talking about any of it. They are all living in crippling fear and fake pretending everything is going fine. Maybe for some, it is. They’ve carved out their own niche, and they are happy with their minimal audience. Sadly, there is much more heat in hating on the Oscars than in blogging about them. The Oscar hating gets ten times the views, the listens, etc. That’s due to the revolutionary moment we’re living through that almost no one in Hollywood seems to see, or if they do, they won’t talk about it. There is nothing new here. Insulated, isolated aristocracies that often alienate the huddled masses can’t survive.

The threat of AI is real. If you’ve noticed, it quietly seeped its way into our lives. When you search Google you get an AI answer. It’s in our maps, schedules, and grammar – we’re already living among robots. If the writing in Hollywood is as strident, woke, and paralyzed as the Left has commanded it to be, why wouldn’t AI take over? It can easily follow the rules and be “up to code,” …so if you want to fight AI, you have to “rock with your human c*ck out.” You have to do what only humans can do. Write wildly, write boldly, write truthfully — stand up, stand out, get canceled.

Most of this is not designed to serve the minority communities so much as to protect the people at the top who care more about their image than they do about building a profitable, successful industry. When we say “woke” that is what we mean. It isn’t about inclusivity or diversity except in the way that marginalized groups are mined to be used as shields to protect the people who have always been in power and will remain in power.

We Oscar bloggers are a big part of the problem of what the Oscars have become. It’s just that there is no way out of it. Our groupthink decides the Oscar race. We get to see movies for free, and most are under the thumb of the scolds. It’s a mess. Ordinarily, the public would have a say. If Hollywood listened to and relied on the free market, it would lose its ability to funnel its message to audiences because audiences hate what Hollywood has become.

However, if they do decide to make their industry thrive and profitable again by listening to the free market and giving people what they want, the Oscar industry should listen. Will they? No. The studios show movies to hundreds of critics long before the movie opens. They hope that will build hype, but most of the time, it doesn’t.  If people see a rotten score, they won’t go see the movie. They also don’t seem to go see the movie if it has a score in the high 90s. They don’t trust them in that way.

Hollywood knows how to do it. They know how to make money. They know how to showcase popular stars to bring people in. They should know by now that the “woke crap” doesn’t make money, nor does the Trump hate. Yet Hollywood will want to keep churning that stuff out rather than, oh I know, journaling?

So, I don’t want to contribute to curating the Oscar menu the way everyone else will. Yet, it’s unavoidable.

Best Actress

Because the Academy is now the “International Academy” we can’t really suss out the race without knowing what will be at Cannes and Venice, etc. So this will have to be a very xenophobic look at the race without factoring in the “foreign films,” which will figure in, without a doubt. So this is just a “what will be released in America” list.

    1. Cynthia Erivo in Wicked: For Good finally collected the Oscar for Part One and Part Two.
    2. Julia Roberts in Luca Guadagnino’s upcoming film After the Hunt. It is said to be a once-in-a-lifetime role. She’s only won once and who knows. October release prob goes to Telluride.
    3. Jessica Lange in Long Day’s Journey Into Night. Will it be released theatrically? I don’t know.
    4. Jessica Chastain in Michael Franco’s Dreams — a “racism” movie about a wealthy white woman and an undocumented immigrant (I’m guessing). I took a guess, and I was right! Do I know Hollywood, or do I know Hollywood?
      It might be less a critique of BAD MAGA as it is BAD WHITE PEOPLE.
    5. Jessie Buckley in The Bride, the new film by Maggie Gyllenhaal about the Bride of Frankenstein. (September)
    6. Margot Robbie in A Big Bold Beautiful Journey, Kogonada’s latest – not much is known about this film, though it has been test-screened. (May)
    7. Emma Mackey in James L. Brooks Ella McCay, which is about a woman who becomes governor — and as expected, will likely be funny, warm-hearted for just one half of the country, aka a “Liberal Screed.” Maybe it will be semi-tolerable, who knows. (September)
    8. Sydney Sweeney in The Housemaid – I figure this one will make a lot of money because Sweeney is one of the few stars that appeal broadly, and this was a hot-selling book. (December)
    9. Dakota Johnson in The Materialists, Celine Song’s follow-up to Past Lives.
    10. Rose Byrne in If I had Legs I Would Kick You (TBD), directed by Mary Bronstein.

I’m sure that this list will likely be useless once the season starts but we need to put something out on Fridays. Old habits die hard.  I can’t even begin to spitball what might be Best Picture. But I am most looking forward to (it’s a small list):

F1 with Brad Pitt
Superman
The Housemaid
Wicked: For Good
Jurassic World: Rebirth (please don’t be “woke”)
Frankenstein by Guillermo Del Toro
After the Hunt
Marty Supreme
Avatar: Fire and Ash
The Running Man
Untitled Paul Thomas Anderson (except I heard it was a “white supremacist” Trump screed and yawn, no thanks).
The Naked Gun
28 Years Later (though I imagine this, too, will be a very much “right now” kind of thing)
Ballerina
Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning

This sounds like an exciting year on paper. Fingers cross! Have a great weekend.

 

 

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