Because it’s the off-season, it makes sense to take it slow and map out possible contenders that we have no expectations for outside of a filmmaker’s previous work or the source material a project is based on, etc. Though many critically praised films have premiered at Sundance and SXSW, nobody is truly thinking about their awards prospects YET.
It’s only really Cannes when the race starts to make its presence known, and there are obvious contenders to really talk about, outside of a few notable exceptions. In the meantime, we should all watch films or TV Shows we haven’t seen yet and not overthink the year too much, as industry voters clearly haven’t yet, either.
Nevertheless, following last week’s analysis of Best Picture, it seems only fair to map out certain Best Director contenders, as the two often go hand in hand, at the very least, in terms of nomination correlation.
Best Director
Let’s take a look at Awards Expert (an app that tracks Oscar predictions, find it on iTunes or whatever OS you have) and see what is currently listed for this category.
There are roughly 30 films that the community is considering for this category. Naturally, the vast majority of fans who follows this race intently really do think it COULD be Paul Thomas Anderson’s year (akin to how Nolan finally won his for Oppenheimer). In all fairness, I see very little reason not to put him as a tentative placeholder for #1 simply because no one else makes much sense now. Josh Safdie for Marty Supreme is another one people are really insistent on, as are previous winners Chloe Zhao for her film Hamnet and Guillermo Del Toro for his film Frankenstein. Whether or not these films are embraced above the line remains to be seen. For the fifth slot, it seems some people are really open to Luca Guadagnino getting his first nomination for After the Hunt, which is possible as well.
Cannes International Slot
The biggest question mark Awards watchers have regarding this category is who will get that auteur-driven, international slot that seems to be fairly popular now.
2024 – Coralie Fargeat, The Substance
2023 – Justine Triet, Anatomy of a Fall, and Jonathan Glazer, The Zone of Interest
2022 – Ruben Ostlund, Triangle of Sadness
2021 – Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Drive My Car
2020 – Thomas Vinterberg, Another Round
2018 – Pawel Pawlikowski, Cold War
I don’t include Bong Joon-Ho, Alfonso Cuaron, or Jacques Audiard, as those are DGA nominees, respectively, and were much stronger in the category year-round. Looking at the Cannes and Venice blueprint, there are a number of contenders that fit this bill on paper.
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Park Chan-Wook, No Other Choice
Mascha Schilinski, The Doctor Says I’ll Be Alright But I’m Feeling Blue
Lynne Ramsay, Die, My Love
Oliver Hermanus, The History of Sound
It’ll be interesting to see what the Cannes lineup has in store for us when it is unveiled next month. The link is here if you want to see what some experts are theorizing about regarding this year’s edition of Cannes. But for now, here are my top 20 Best Director predictions
Let’s have at it:
- Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
- Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
- Mona Fastvold, Ann Lee
- Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
- Mascha Schilinski, The Doctor Says I’ll Be Alright But I’m Feeling Blue
- Oliver Hermanus, The History of Sound
- Maggie Gyllenhaal, The Bride! (Pushed to March 2026)
- Chloe Zhao, Hamnet
- Park Chan-Wook, No Other Choice
- Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
- Luca Guadagnino, After the Hunt
- Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
- Spike Lee, Highest 2 Lowest
- Kathryn Bigelow, Untitled White House Political Thriller
- James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash
- Mike Flanagan, The Life of Chuck
- Yorgos Lathinmos, Bugonia
- Jon M. Chu, Wicked: For Good
- Benny Safdie, The Smashing Machine
- Kelly Reichardt, The Mastermind
Best Picture Contenders update
After reading some of your comments on my last post, I felt it was only necessary to list a couple other contenders I had not initially discussed in my top 30. Thank you for letting me know, and continue doing so throughout the year
1. One Battle After Another (Dir: Paul Thomas Anderson)
2. Sentimental Value (Dir: Joachim Trier)
3. Ann Lee (Dir: Mona Fastvold)
4. The Bride! (Dir: Maggie Gyllenhaal)- (Pushed to March 2026)
5. Marty Supreme (Dir: Josh Safdie)
6. The History of Sound (Dir: Oliver Hermanus)
7. Hamnet (Dir: Chloe Zhao)
8. Wicked For Good (Dir: Jon M. Chu)
9. Jay Kelly (Dir: Noah Baumbach)
10. The Doctor Says, I’ll be alright but I’m Feelin’ blue (Dir: Mascha Schilinski)
11. Michael (Dir: Antoine Fuqua)
12. The Smashing Machine (Dir: Benny Safdie)
13. Bugonia (Dir: Yorgos Lanthimos)
14. Avatar: Fire and Ash (Dir: James Cameron)
15. The Life of Chuck (Dir: Mike Flanagan)
16. Sorry, Baby (Dir: Eva Victor)
17. Roofman (Dir: Derek Cianfrance)
18. Highest 2 Lowest (Dir: Spike Lee)
19. The Roses (Dir: Jay Roach)
20. After the Hunt (Dir: Luca Guadagnino)
21. Die, My Love (Dir: Lynne Ramsey)
22. Frankenstein (Dir: Guillermo Del Toro)
23. Deliver Me from Nowhere (Dir: Scott Cooper)
24. The Ballad of a Small Player (Dir: Edward Berger)
25. No Other Choice (Dir: Park Chan-wook)
26. Rental Family (Dir: Hikari)
27. Untitled Kathryn Bigelow Political Thriller (Dir: Kathryn Bigelow)
28. Mother Mary (Dir: David Lowery)
29. Eddington (Dir: Ari Aster)
30. Ella McCay (Dir: James L. Brooks)
Following last week, the following ten films have been added
31. F1 (Dir: Joseph Kosinski)
32. The Lost Bus (Dir: Paul Greengrass)
33. The Rivals of Amziah King (Dir: Andrew Patterson)
34. Caught Stealing (Dir: Darren Aronofsky)
35. The Mastermind (Dir: Kelly Reichardt)
36. Hedda (Dir: Nia DaCosta)
37. Materialists (Dir: Celine Song)
38. Hand of Dante (Dir: Julian Schnabel)
39. Kiss of the Spider Woman (Dir: Bill Condon)
40. Train Dreams (Dir: Clint Bentley)
That’s all I got for this week. Please continue to let me know if I am missing any films or projects that are confirmed for this year and have potential.
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