Continuing from last week, it’s time to talk about another above-the-line category. In this case, it is Best Actor in a Leading Role, and I am just spitballing certain contenders some people are putting a spotlight on as potential nominees and/or winners. Also, just as a potential segment going forward, I will have some industry tidbits at the end of each article that can be taken into consideration for what to look forward to, what is coming out, etc.
For this category, consider the narrative — possible best picture strength and likability of actor/character. It’s tough to win without having support for one’s film in other categories, the only exception from the expanded era being Brendan Fraser for The Whale and that was a very unique instance of narrative and performance being overwhelming, and his main competitor (Austin Butler) being in a film the Oscars weren’t super in favor of despite making a Best Picture lineup of ten.
For the sake of it, let’s take a look at what Awards Expert is considering for this category, the closest we can get to if a consensus or set of contenders is needed for a list.
As we can see listed above, there is a clear discussion of Timothee Chalamet potentially winning for Josh Safdies’ Table Tennis film Marty Supreme (Rumored to be loosely based on table tennis player Marty Reisman). It makes some sense on paper; his loss for A Complete Unknown still stings. he’s what one would call a true movie star loved by people who do not even follow the Oscars (or films in general), and would more likely than not, root for.
He’s my placeholder for number one as well, his competitors feeling plausible but more “let’s wait and see” before making a definitive statement. At the same time, this is all speculation. Other contenders include Leonardo DiCaprio for Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another (interpretation of Pynchon’s Vineland), Jeremy Allen White for Scott Cooper’s Deliver Me from Nowhere (biopic on Bruce Springsteen), Jaafar Jackson for Antoine Fuqua’s Michael (biopic on Michael Jackson), and probably the biggest wildcard, Dwayne “The Rock” Johnson for Benny Safdies’ The Smashing Machine (based on life of former martial artist Mark Kerr). Many look towards the biopics to find the more “awards-friendly” performances, especially in Best Actor, and this year has tons of them.
Without further ado, let’s present my top fifteen for this category as of this moment. Feel free to comment below others I might have missed.
Best Actor Top Ten
- Timothee Chalamet – Marty Supreme
- Leonardo Dicaprio – One Battle After Another
- Jaafar Jackson – Michael
- Paul Mescal – The History of Sound
- Daniel Day-Lewis – Anemone
- Dwayne Johnson – The Smashing Machine
- Colin Farrell – The Ballad of a Small Player
- Jeremy Allen White – Deliver Me from Nowhere
- Benedict Cumberbatch – The Roses
- Jesse Plemons – Bugonia
- Oscar Isaac – Frankenstein
- Tom Hiddleston – The Life of Chuck
- George Clooney – Jay Kelly
- Matthew McConaughey – The Rivals of Amziah King
- Denzel Washington – Highest 2 Lowest
Industry Tidbits
- Maggie Gyllenhaal’s The Bride has been pushed to March 2026 after occupying a Fall release date, with One Battle After Another shifting from August to late September, signifying a potential Fall Festival run.
- One Battle After Another and The Phoenician Scheme are slated to release full trailers this week.
- Cannes has announced that the festival’s lineup will be unveiled on April 10th, and more about what is contending and/or releasing this year will be revealed.
As the weeks progress, especially when CinemaCon starts next Monday, we will know more about the year, and what to ultimately expect.
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