Every year, there is always a film that hardly anyone has on their radar that, through word of mouth, becomes something that cannot be ignored. Last year, it was arguably Coralie Fargeat’s genre-bending commentary The Substance, and in a year like 2022, it was the Daniels’ multiverse project Everything Everywhere All At Once. When it comes to 2025, it seems our first true awards contender of this year, jumping into the cinematic landscape in a way that not many people were expecting, is Ryan Cooglers’ Action Horror film, Sinners.
Receiving a 98% on Rotten Tomatoes, and having a stellar opening weekend at the box office, Cooglers’s film is in a solid spot at the moment, being hailed as an inventive, subversive, and compelling project with social commentary. Out of the 40 films I had considered early on in the year to be a possible BP contender, I regret not having this one in, but the surprise of the film’s quality seems to be a driving force as to why so many, especially those on Film Twitter, are so unified behind its quality. I have not seen it yet, but I hope to as soon as possible.
The first horror film to get an A CinemaScore in a decade and on track to be the highest grossing original film since the Pandemic, in addition to the rave reviews, gives the impression that this might truly be an underdog contender down the road, and it remains to be seen if this is the case.
Something we also can’t ignore, as stated above, is how a film that clearly “defines” the first portion of the year (either through festivals or actually being released theatrically) often goes the distance and gets nominated in some capacity
Recent years
2024 – Dune Part 2
2023 – Past Lives
2022 – Everything Everywhere All At Once and Top Gun: Maverick
2021 – Coda (though it released in August it premiered at Sundance, though this is a weird season)
2020 – Minari, The Father, Promising Young Woman (though Covid changed the entire trajectory of the race)
In addition to Best Picture, it’s possible we could be looking at tech nominations, a screenplay nomination, directing if the academy is seriously into it. I’m probably not going to update my BP predictions on this site until May (either before Cannes or after), but if it continues to do well financially and becomes a staple in the film conversation, a BP nom might be fairly plausible (if it isn’t already).
Now onto the supporting acting categories
Best Supporting Actor
Like many categories this early in the year, the race feels wide open, with many unknown variables and films that have yet to be seen.
Looking at the Awards Expert (via the app, which you can download on your phone) consensus gives individuals an idea of what some people expect, but it is by no means the be-all and end-all of what could be nominated.
The community as a whole really thinks this could be Adam Sandler’s year for Noah Baumbach’s comedy-drama ensemble-driven Jay Kelly, where the former is slated to give the standout performance. Andrew Garfield in After the Hunt, alongside that entire film, is one film twitter (and a ton of people who follow the awards race), is heavily interested in, considering it is Luca Guadagnino at the helm, adapting Nora Garrett’s screenplay. Sean Penn for Paul Thomas Anderson’s upcoming film is rumored to be a compelling antagonist, and many, including yours truly, think Stellan Skarsgård might have a career narrative if Trier’s Sentimental Value takes off. Colman Domingo will likely not be nominated as Michael has been delayed and split into two parts due next year. Many are looking into two other performances: Jeremy Strong in Deliver Me from Nowhere (biopic on Bruce Springsteen) and Mark Hamill for The Life of Chuck, who many think could also have a career narrative and land their first nomination.
If I had to jot down the ten I would keep my eye on, they would be
- Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
- Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
- Mark Hamill, The Life of Chuck
- Jeremy Strong, Deliver Me from Nowhere
- Josh O’Connor, The History of Sound
- Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
- Andrew Garfield, After the Hunt
- Paul Mescal, Hamnet (if it’s releasing this year)
- Denzel Washington, Highest 2 Lowest
- Jonathan Bailey, Wicked: For Good
Best Supporting Actress
This is another category that could go in many different directions, with viable contenders fighting for the five slots.
Looking at the awards expert app, this is what the consensus currently suggests.
As one can see, there is overwhelming support behind Ariana Grande winning for Chu’s Wicked: For Good, as plenty of people think this could be Edebiri’s cinematic breakthrough after FX’s The Bear if After the Hunt is a big hit. Gwyneth Paltrow for Marty Supreme seems possible if the film takes off, as does Regina Hall for One Battle After Another if it ends up being a big hit for PTA. The wildcard is Angelina LookingGlass for Andrew Patterson’s The Rivals of Amziah King, whose film was screened to passionate reactions at SXSW but still lacks a distributor. It’s a film that really feels up in the air regarding how the awards season will treat it. People on the outside looking in, according to them are Laura Dern for Jay Kelly, and Teyana Taylor for One Battle After Another.
If I had to jot down the ten I would keep my eye on, they would be
- Regina Hall, One Battle After Another
- Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
- Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
- Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
- Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
- Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
- Thomasin McKenzie, Ann Lee
- Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine
- Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
- Jennifer Lopez, Kiss of the Spider Woman
Other industry tidbits
- Lynne Ramsay’s Die, My Love is likely a late addition to the Cannes lineup
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