Possibly the biggest question we have regarding this awards season is how exactly the new addition of the Best Casting Oscar will play out. Specifically, what films the casting directors will consider to have the best “casting.”
Is it about the ensemble? Is it about the individual performances? The lead performance? Though the membership is always growing and becoming more diverse, this is still very much a voting body that might favor strong projects in the Best Picture race.
Let’s examine what the Awards Expert (from the Awards Expert app) community is currently predicting or considering regarding what might be nominated here.
Looking at the top five, it seems that there is an expectation that this branch might gravitate towards more populist projects. Having Wicked For Good and Sinners in seems like a given, considering they are both very populist and plausible Best Picture nominees.
Marty Supreme and One Battle After Another also seem plausible. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery seems possible if the Oscars are still open to Rian Johnson’s franchise. Other projects being considered include After the Hunt, Deliver Me From Nowhere, and Jay Kelly.
If I had to shoot some darts at the dartboard and make a predicted set of ten, that would include
Best Casting
- Marty Supreme
- One Battle After Another
- Jay Kelly
- Wicked: For Good
- Sinners
- Sentimental Value
- Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
- Highest 2 Lowest
- The Smashing Machine
- The Roses
Sag Ensemble
When it comes to this category, think raw strength of a film in the Oscar race. This is where project presence either solidifies a film in the Oscar race or shows its true vulnerabilities. Proven by last year when The Brutalist missed and Anora did not, or the years where Coda and Parasite won when Power of the Dog and 1917 were not nominated, shows the significance behind this said category, even though the people who vote on its nominations is just a few thousand, and varies each year.
Looking at the Awards Expert community (from the Awards Expert app), let’s see what is being predicted now.
As it stands, there is once again a big focus on populist titles and their strength in the BP Race. Wicked and Sinners, as do Marty Supreme and One Battle After Another, seem very plausible. Instead of Knives Out, there is a possibility that the actors might respond to After the Hunt, considering the pedigree of the cast involved.
It’s a hard category to predict every year, and one that throws curveballs at certain points in the award season. Nevertheless, the rule of thumb is to lean towards what films have done well in Best Picture and the guilds in general.
As it stands, here are my SAG Ensemble predictions
SAG Ensemble
- Wicked For Good
- One Battle After Another
- Marty Supreme
- Jay Kelly
- Sinners
- Sentimental Value
- After The Hunt
- Deliver Me From Nowhere
- The Life of Chuck
- Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
I feel cheap for matching five for five with Ensemble and Casting, but until we know exactly what the academy will gravitate towards, it’s a crapshoot all things considered.
It’s going to be an interesting few weeks ahead, with the Cannes Film Festival starting soon. Next week, prior to the festival starting, I will update my Best Picture and Director predictions, look at PGA/DGA, and preview Cannes overall.
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