Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Cannes Preview, plus PGA and DGA early thoughts

After a rather peaceful two months following the last Academy Awards, the first questions so many of us have regarding the race will soon start to have answers as the 78^th Cannes Film Festival starts. It’s a festival that has always been a beacon for filmmaking and honoring the craft, more recently becoming a larger jumping pad for projects with award potential as the voting body becomes increasingly international.

With a jury led by Juliet Binoche and a slate that includes a large number of films, from known auteurs to up-and-coming directors, it will surely be a lot to take in, and for those attending, one that will likely produce some exceptional films.

The International Bloc

As stated earlier, many people who follow the awards race are looking for what project truly will appeal to the international voter when it comes to Cannes. Will it be Joachim Trier’s next film, Julia Ducournau’s next project, or perhaps Ari Aster’s? It’s a question that many will have, and, as evidenced by last year, it might not be just one project, and it might not be the one everyone is thinking about.

Though I will not be attending the festival (I hope to someday), we will ultimately monitor its reactions and rumblings, including word of mouth and other influential factors that define what emerges from the fest.

PGA and DGA

In addition to a temperature check regarding personal predictions ahead of the Cannes lineup, I thought it would be a good idea to talk about the Producers Guild and the Directors Guild, specifically what could make it in there but miss at the Oscars, and vice versa.

The biggest talking point of the first half of the year is Coogler’s Sinners, and if I had to guess, in addition to landing a Best Picture nom, PGA and a DGA nomination for Coogler seem on the table. As that voting body leans towards populist filmmaking, either him or Jon M Chu for Wicked for Good could squeak in, but as of now I lean towards the former.

For a reference, here is what the Awards Expert community is predicting currently

Taking a shot at a dart board, here are my early predix for PGA and DGA:

PGA 10

One Battle After Another
Marty Supreme
Wicked For Good
Sinners
Sentimental Value
Ann Lee
Jay Kelly
The Life of Chuck
Bugonia
Roofman

A couple bold swings (Roofman), and a few omissions (After the Hunt) might seem off, but it’s just an educated guess at the moment.

For a reference point, here is what the Awards expert community is predicting:

When it comes to the DGA, here is my predicted five if I HAD to choose at the moment

DGA 5

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
Mona Fastvold, Ann Lee
Ryan Coogler, Sinners

People like Jon M Chu, and Noah Baumbach are on the outside. It’s a mystery but one can speculate about it.

As a Bonus, here are the first Time DGA predictions

DGA First-Time

Scarlett Johansson, Eleanor the Great
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Cole Webley, Omaha
Kristen Stewart, The Chronology of Water
Michael Shanks, Together

Mascha Schilinski might be eligible for Sound of Falling, so she is the alternate depending on eligibility.

Here is what the Awards Expert community is predicting:

Above the Line Oscar predictions pre-Cannes

Before the festival starts, here are my predictions in the top eight (top nine now, considering casting) Oscar categories.

Best Picture

One Battle After Another
Sentimental Value (Cannes premiere)
Marty Supreme
Wicked For Good
Sinners
Ann Lee
Bugonia
Jay Kelly
The History of Sound (Cannes premiere)
Sound of Falling (Cannes premiere)

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value (Premiering at Cannes)
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Mona Fastvold, Ann Lee
Mascha Schilinski, Sound of Falling (Bold swing for the International Cannes Pick in addition to Trier)

Best Actor in a Leading Role