2026 Oscar Predictions – The Case for F1: The Movie

Joseph Kosinski’s F1: The Movie is not better than Top Gun: Maverick, but that’s mostly because we have an emotional foundation built by the original Top Gun movie. F1: The Movie is entirely original. It is a hybrid of a story about Brad Pitt as a veteran driver and a story about a hot, up-and-coming driver fashioned after F1 superchamp, Lewis Hamilton.

Hamilton is one of the producers on F1: The Movie, along with other big names like Jerry Bruckheimer and Dede Gardner, but he’s also kind of in the movie a bit as one of the hotshot drivers, Damson Idris and Brad Pitt have to defeat at the end, which is funny because there is no way in real life they would have beaten him.

Most people who cover the Oscars would never say F1: The Movie has a shot at Best Picture, and the reason they would cite is that it’s not an “Oscar movie.”

This parody reflects the Oscars before they went “woke,” but you could make an equally damning parody just like this reflecting “woke do-gooder Hollywood.” No one ever would – ever. But it would be funny and accurate.

But all an “Oscar movie” should be is a high achievement in film in a given year. Right now, F1: The Movie is one of the best films of the year. Granted, given what’s been released that isn’t saying much. I will put it in my top ten until other movies knock it out.

The two key factors that sell it are that it’s produced by Lewis Hamilton and that it’s an original story that is making bank. Shouldn’t we be encouraging Hollywood studios to make more movies like this? I think we should. It’s a film that delivers, even if it does hit a cliche or two along the way.

F1: The Movie begins with a cinematic masterpiece of directing and editing. It is ultimately a crowd pleaser, anchored by two strong performances from Pitt and Idris. Because it’s an original story, more or less, like Sinners, it has to world build from scratch (with the help of Lewis Hamilton and F1). There are some awkward things in it, like the love interest played by Kerry Condon – as good as she is, there is some chemistry missing here. Ultimately, it doesn’t matter because the film is more centered on the relationship between the three men, with Javier Bardem rounding out the third.

These reactions from Film Threat tell me that the movie is doing something more than just appealing to the handful of curators and bloggers who shape the race in a given year.

I have made the case for many movies to be included in the Oscar lineup – Top Gun Maverick among them – that people who work in this industry roll their eyes at. Sometimes the movie I push gets in, sometimes it doesn’t. But it makes no difference. When I pushed Gone Girl all year I was right. It was easily one of the best — if not the best – film of 2014 and I don’t care what the critics think. What makes a great film, to me, is not one that expresses who the critics are, but one that bobs and weaves through culture in a way that leaves a mark and Gone Girl did.

A Best Picture lineup ideally represents the year in film, not the year that publicists convinced various bloggers to place their movies and those movies dropped in the laps of Oscar voters — been there, done that. No, it should be a realistic look at the year in film that most people can recognize. Top Gun: Maverick left a mark. People still talk about how good it was because it was one of the few films that gave back more than it took.

I give Joseph Kosinski, and Apple, credit for taking a risk on a story that isn’t all that easy to understand. It’s wonky and intricate, detailing a method of racing that few people are aware of. I happen to sort of know about it because — TMI — I once dated a guy who was obsessed with it, so I had to watch it with him. But they kind of did something unheard of now — with the sole exception of Sinners. They brought out a big budget crowdpleaser without any franchises or brands attached.

What I most liked about it was the performances of the two leads. Brad Pitt takes his career to a different level with this performance. He’s embracing his age and veteran status — while still being so good-looking you almost can’t look at him with the naked eye. But he’s wonderful here, especially in how he suppresses his pain – physical and emotional. Idris could have been your typical sidekick character, but he’s given depth and a backstory — even if they did cut out his love interest.

I loved that the Idris character was allowed to experience the full spectrum of human emotions. He didn’t have to be play the “good” person but was allowed to be arrogant and impulsive. That’s just not something you see very often in any movie, let alone a blockbuster like this one. At least from my perspective, I could be wrong.

Brad Pitt is asked at a press conference about his past. It scrapes across his heart and we can almost see him bleed. But he is also good at masking the mistakes of his past. Whatever Pitt has lived through in his private life, it’s still churning inside of him and has left him changed. As an actor, it has given him a vulnerability seen very rarely (Benjamin Button, A River Runs through It). He is a movie star, no doubt about it. The camera loves him. But Idris and Javier Bardem, along with Condon, all hold their own.

The Oscar race should not be manipulated, but rather be organic. Bloggers should follow the buzz, not lead it. Do I think F1: The Movie is the best film of the year? No, but it’s the one movie anyone could sit down in front of and get, if not love. Between that and Sinners, along with Joaquim Trier’s Sentimental Education, we have three strong contenders for Best Picture — I think.

It will be a profitable weekend with Jurassic World Rebirth, and F1: The Movie. Superman is on tap and sure to make a lot of money, too. Hollywood is still trying to find its footing after such an enormous culture quake of the last ten years that has very nearly taken it under. Something about walking into the theater to see F1 made me feel like as a society we might have just moved past movie theaters. It felt like such a bulky experience compared to the ease of our convenience tech at our fingertips.

On the other hand, watching a movie with other people matters too. Maybe we would not be such a polarized country on this July 4th if we could still share stories. But since it is July 4th, I’ll make this short and give you my predictions for this week, with the caveat that nobody knows anything, least of all me.

Best Picture: