Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Temperature check on Best Picture and Best Director Pre-Festivals

As we enter into the calm before the storm of the year when it comes to the awards season, the few months before Venice kicks things off (this time with a new Sorrentino movie), it’s best to analyze what the people who are most passionate about this race really have to say regarding what could be nominated, and ultimately, what many think will be nominated if asked today.

Although some notable festivals, particularly Sundance and Cannes, have presented some projects, the race still feels appropriately wide open. Of course, there are certain directors or contenders that film Twitter (the people who are primarily into this) are advocating for, or anticipating will be a major hit, but at the moment, the sky is the limit, and really anything is possible. Let’s dive into the two most significant categories, Best Picture and Best Director.

Best Picture

From the Oscar Expert app:

 Perhaps most fascinatingly, there does seem to be a “consensus,” so to speak, on what the awards community thinks could be what this race ends up coming down to. The first is that of Ryan Coogler’s Sinners, which, to many, has become something that cannot be ignored. The supernatural horror social experiment has become the film of the first half of the year. Though I am still bearish on a win with an international voting body, it is not only a movie with passion, but it has a clear narrative if the love for Coogler really takes off.

Secondly, many believe that Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value has taken off after its Cannes premiere. Though the project didn’t win the Palme d’Or like many thought, the win package and the love for Trier keep it as a top-tier contender. Add in a likely fall festival performance, and a push by Neon, and we have ourselves a true race, one that seems fairly believable at the moment.

At number three, my personal pick, is Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme. Opening up late in the year and possibly going to the fall film festivals, this too seems like a dark horse contender that could go all the way. Being highlighted as the most expensive A24 film ever (and rumored to be a crowd-pleaser), this could really surprise people and capture the general audience’s attention.

At the moment, these three projects are my top three Best Picture contenders as well. Others on the list include Jon M. Chu’s Wicked For Good, Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another, Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia, Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, Scott Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt, and James Cameron’s Avatar: Fire and Ash.

Contenders on the outside include Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just an Accident, Guilermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein, Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet, Hikari’s Rental Family, and Andrew Patterson’s The Rivals of Amziah King

If the Best Picture race really came down to Sinners vs Sentimental Value, it wouldn’t be as far-fetched as some would assume. A crowd pleaser with a message (albeit a horror movie nonetheless) against a talky, well-respected international film is one that many see as the underdog versus the frontrunner all over again, the unconventional versus the expected, albeit these two movies are unique in their own right.

It’ll be interesting to see how Trier’s film performs at the fall fests, and what else premieres there.

Best Director

Akin to Best Picture, this too is one that many believe is between Sinners and Sentimental Value, both of which occupy the top two spots. Following that, there is a belief that Lanthimos, Paul Thomas Anderson, and Josh Safdie will be in the last three spots.

Joachim Trier is interesting because Sentimental Value could either be the international slot that misses the DGA and makes the Oscar five, or he’s in it all the way, and someone else is the international slot. That’s where Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident comes into play. Following that is Frankenstein, After the Hunt, Hamnet, and Wicked For Good.

Winning Best Picture and Best Director is not a guarantee, but I believe if Sinners or Sentimental Value is going all the way, (and Coogler isn’t snubbed due to the populist nature), either film would take picture and director, it would not be a split. Could be wrong, but both projects are defined as “director’s mediums” in their own way.

My Oscar predictions

The only real change from last week is less confidence in The Life of Chuck by the day. The film is not resonating with audiences or critics, and there is a lack of passion among any set of people to propel it forward.

There isn’t much difference this week, which will probably be the norm until the festivals arrive.

Best Picture

1. Marty Supreme
2. Sentimental Value
3. Sinners
4. One Battle After Another
5. Wicked: For Good
6. Ann Lee
7. After the Hunt
8. Jay Kelly
9. Bugonia
10. It Was Just an Accident

Best Director

1. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
3. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
4. Mona Fastvold, Ann Lee
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Best Actress

1. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee
2. June Squibb, Eleanor the Great
3. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
4. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
5. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good

Best Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3. Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
4. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Best Supporting Actress

1. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
2. Ayo Edebri, After The Hunt
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
3. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
4. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
5. Andrew Garfield, After The Hunt

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sentimental Value
2. Marty Supreme
3. Jay Kelly
4. Sinners
5. After the Hunt

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Bugonia
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
4. Hedda
5. The Life of Chuck

Best Casting

1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
5. Wake Up Dead Man

Best Cinematography

1. Ann Lee
2. Frankenstein
3. Marty Supreme
4. One Battle After Another
5. Sound of Falling

Best Editing

1. Marty Supreme
2. Sentimental Value
3. Sinners
4. After the Hunt
5. One Battle After Another

Best Production Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Ann Lee
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Sinners

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Ann Lee
4. Sinners
5. Hamnet

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Sinners
5. 28 Years Later

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Superman
3. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
5. Wicked: For Good

Best Sound

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Warfare

Best Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Ann Lee
4. Frankenstein
5. F1

Best Original Song

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Ann Lee
3. Relentless (Diane Warren Biopic)
4. Wicked Song #2
5. Bruce Springsteen song for Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. The Secret Agent
3. Sound Of Falling
4. Sirât
5. It Was Just an Accident (though if it is not submitted considering the director’s relationship with the country and no one picks it up, I would go with All That’s Left of you)

Best Animated Feature

1. A Magnificent Life
2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
3. Arco
4. Zootopia 2
5. Elio

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Mr. Nobody Againt Putin
3. Cutting Through Rocks
4. Seeds
5. André Is an Idiot

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