NextGen Oscarwatcher Temperature Check on Supporting Actor and Actress

Continuing from the last post, and with this being a “calm before the storm” with Venice announcing tomorrow, and TIFF just announced, it feels right to move on to the next categories.  Specifically, the supporting acting races, and what some of the people who follow these races think are the major ones to look out for.

Best Supporting Actor (from the Awards Expert App)

Looking at the predicted top five, there seems to be a clear consensus behind the top two. Stellan Skarsgård is earning raves for his role in Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, though some question if his category placement could be slotted to lead. In the context of this article and what is currently believed, he is supporting. Many who saw the film at Cannes considered the performance a standout, with nearly 70% of users thinking he would win the Oscar as of today.

Right behind him is Adam Sandler for Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, which is rumored to be going to all the major festival circuits, with many believing this could be his career nomination, and potential *win* if the film were to be a major player in the awards race. It’s something many want to see play out, a well-renowned comedy veteran who’s never been nominated, and is in what could possibly be his most showy role (outside of the Safdies’ Uncut Gems).

Behind those two are those of Andrew Garfield for Luca Guadagnino’s After the Hunt, whose role is rumored to be very baity in a film defined by its ensemble. Following that is Jeremy Strong for Scott Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere, who, alongside Stephen Graham, could be major factors in this category, and lastly, is Delroy Lindo for Sinners, a performance many believe could get him the Oscar nom because of the likability of his character, likability of film, and likability of actor, a combo that makes a ton of sense in his circumstance.

Following him are Sean Penn for One Battle After Another, Paul Mescal for Hamnet, Akira Emoto for Rental Family, Miles Caton for Sinners, and Jonathan Bailey for Wicked: For Good

Best Supporting Actress (from the Awards Expert app)

From the beginning of March, Ariana Grande for Jon M. Chu’s Wicked: For Good has been the consensus frontrunner, with 54% of users predicting the pop star to reign supreme come March 15^th.

Following Grande is Elle Fanning for Trier’s Sentimental Value, who steals the show in her short performance, and is believed to be elevated by the film’s strong awards prospects. Right behind her is Ayo Edebiri for After the Hunt, a performance that was given a ton of attention in the trailer for the film. After her, Gwyneth Paltrow is up for Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme; many believe her comeback narrative, after years of being off-screen, could propel her to a nomination. In the fifth spot is Laura Dern for Jay Kelly, a film many believe will go far in the acting races.

Following the top five is Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value, Emily Blunt for Benny Safdie’s The Smashing Machine, Mari Yamamoto for Rental Family, Glenn Close for Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery, and Regina Hall for One Battle After Another.

Venice thoughts

This coming Tuesday, the 82^nd Venice Film Festival will announce the official lineup. It’s unknown what will truly be a part of the lineup, but some have made predictions or theories, such as World of Reel’s Jordan Ruimy, where you can find his lineup prediction here.

 Guadagnino, Baumbach, and Lanthimos feel assured, as do the films of Benny Safdie and Park Chan-Wook. The one I’m most curious about, as evident by my predictions, is Mona Fastvold’s Ann Lee, Corbet’s spouse’s film, one that many are considering to be the “sister film” to Corbet’s The Brutalist. Whether it will be a major player or even release this year remains to be seen, but everyone has a film they’re pushing or have their eyes on, and this is the one for me.

Oscar Predictions for this week

Perhaps the two biggest changes I made were the removal of The Life of Chuck from Adapted Screenplay, and going out on a limb and predicting Mari Yamamoto in Supporting Actress, a category known for anointing stars, and if Hikari’s film is as big as people are making it out to be (the TIFF premiere many are looking forward to), this could be the way to reward it.

I also switched my Original Screenplay prediction from Sentimental Value to Jay Kelly, as it’s festival presence, plus it’s potential Best Picture strength (and the way the Oscars have been spreading the wealth regarding screenplay in some years) this could be the way to award the movie.

Best Picture

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Jay Kelly
4. Marty Supreme
5. After the Hunt
6. Wicked for Good
7. Ann Lee
8. Rental Family
9. One Battle After Another
10. It Was Just an Accident

Best Director

1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
4. Mona Fastvold, Ann Lee
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Best Actress

1. Amanda Seyfried, Ann Lee
2. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
5. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet

Best Actor

1. Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
3. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
5. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
3. Ayo Edebri, After The Hunt
4. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
5. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
3. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. Andrew Garfield, After The Hunt
5. Delroy Lindo, Sinners

Best Original Screenplay

1. Jay Kelly
2. Sentimental Value
3. Jay Kelly
4. Rental Family
5. After the Hunt

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Bugonia
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
4. Hedda
5. Hamnet

Best Casting

1. Sinners
2. After the Hunt
3. Marty Supreme
4. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
5. Wake Up Dead Man

Best Cinematography

1. Ann Lee
2. Frankenstein
3. Marty Supreme
4. One Battle After Another
5. Sinners

Best Editing

1. Marty Supreme
2. Sentimental Value
3. Sinners
4. After the Hunt
5. One Battle After Another

Best Production Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Ann Lee
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Sinners

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Ann Lee
4. Sinners
5. Hamnet

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Sinners
5. 28 Years Later

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Superman
3. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
4. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
5. Wicked: For Good

Best Sound

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere

Best Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Ann Lee
4. Frankenstein
5. Jay Kelly

Best Original Song

1. Wicked: For Good (Cynthia Erivo)
2. Ann Lee
3. Relentless (Diane Warren Biopic)
4. Wicked Song #2 (Ariana Grande)
5. I Lied To You from Sinners

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. The Secret Agent
3. Sound Of Falling
4. Sirât
5. It Was Just an Accident (though if it is not submitted, considering the director’s relationship with the country, and no one picks it up, I would go with All That’s Left of You)

Best Animated Feature

1. A Magnificent Life
2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
3. Arco
4. Zootopia 2
5. Elio

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
3. Cutting Through Rocks
4. Seeds
5. André Is an Idiot

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