The days leading up to the film festivals are always some of the most fascinating, simply because all one can do is wait and “predict” as opposed to truly knowing anything. One can argue the general consensus of what the next few weeks will have in store is already laid out (plenty of Netflix projects, films that surprise viewers even if they were on a couple people’s radars, the infamous “this had Oscar buzz” headlines), but every year is different, and nothing should be “assumed” until it is seen by a proper audience.
This is what makes the Telluride Film Festival so special. Shrouded in secrecy until the day prior to the start of the weekend-long slate, and absence of press screenings, every screening feels natural and organic. It’s not a place where the driving force is traction and “media moments,” it’s a place for the love of cinema. It’s a place where the art form and the experience of moviegoing are celebrated in a way that other festivals do not. That is why, every year, even when some people don’t expect it to occur due to a “smaller slate,” a Best Picture nominee has always premiered at the festival, a tradition that dates back to 2019. Prior to 2018, the Best Picture winner had also screened at the fest since 2007.
Since 2018, here are the films that premiered at Telluride and went on to receive a Best Picture nomination.
2024 – Nickel Boys, Conclave
2023 – The Holdovers
2022 – Women Talking
2021 – Belfast and King Richard
2020 – The festival was cancelled
2019 – Ford V Ferrari
Though it is impossible to note which films are going to the festival until the day prior to its occurrence, Michael Patterson’s film blog (titled Michael’s Telluride Film Blog) does a solid job of putting together what to expect through other festival classifications, prior history, and other “subtle hints.”
This is what his most recent post suggests that he would expect to premiere this week
The article this can be traced from can be found here
This week’s Ten Bets (Plus):
1) Hamnet/Zhao
2) It Was Just an Accident/Panahi
3) Sentimental Value/Trier
4) Ballad of a Small Player/Berger
5) The Secret Agent/Filho
6) Nouvelle Vague/Linklater
7) Bugonia/Lanthimos
8) Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
9) The History of Sound/Hermanus
10) Jay Kelly/Baumbach
11) Tuner/Roher
12) The Mastermind/Reichardt
13) Cover-Up/Poitras
14) Ghost Elephants/Herzog
15) Hamlet/Karia
16) Pillion/Lighton
17) La Grazia/Sorrentino
18) Resurrection/Bi Gan
19) Blue Moon/Linklater
20) A Private Life/Zlotowski
The biggest premiere, one that has been anticipated since the gala presentation announcement for TIFF, is Chloe Zhao’s Hamnet, based on Maggie O’Farrell’s novel of the same name. Being a prior Best Picture/Best Director winner, this is undoubtedly going to be one of the hottest premieres of the fest, with Jessie Buckley rumored to give an incredible, emotional, and resonant performance that could catapult her to an Oscar win. Focus Features’ track record with Telluride over the recent years, with Berger’s Conclave, Payne’s The Holdovers, and Field’s Tár, suggests this could be another homerun for the studio, which has yet to claim a Best Picture prize despite nineteen nominations.
The other major world premiere slated for Telluride, confirmed by its NYFF spotlight placement, is that of Scott Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, which many are anticipating to consist of a strong performance from up and coming actor, Jeremy Allen White, alongside a strong supporting cast, with many looking forward to what Jeremy Strong, Stephen Graham, and Paul Walter Hauser among a strong ensemble cast have to offer.
Other noteworthy premieres that Patterson has jotted down for the fest include Daniel Roher’s Tuner, starring Leo Woodall and Dustin Hoffman, and Edward Berger’s Ballad of a Small Player, starring Colin Farrell, both slated for TIFF.
The films from Cannes and Venice that will be making their North American Premiere in Telluride, based on information from TIFF and NYFF, plus some “word of mouth” include a pair of notable Cannes titles, Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value, and Jafar Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident, both of which won top prizes, the former the Grand Prix, and the later the Palme D’Or, sure to make their presence known throughout the festival circuit. Also slated from Cannes include Filho’s The Secret Agent, Linklater’s Nouvelle Vague, and Hermanus’s The History of Sound.
The two big Venice premieres hopping over to Telluride, are Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia and Noah Baumbach’s Jay Kelly. Anticipation for both of these films is THROUGH THE ROOF, and I hope to not only get to see them but also truly absorb what these two auteur filmmakers are evoking with their latest features.
For Telluride this year, I intend to jot down and express daily what occurred, the films I saw, and the major takeaways. From Friday-Sunday (I am leaving early Monday morning), a journal entry a day seems right, and I hope to visually document the journey through pictures (Patrons brunch, etc). It’s going to be quite a weekend, and, like all of the other years I have attended (2022, 2023, and 2024), something unforgettable.
Be sure to listen to Sasha, Jeremy, and me discuss this upcoming festival season on our podcast, which will be released later this week.
Oscar Predictions for this week
I decided to make a few adjustments prior to the film festival commencing, such as
– Moving Chalamet back to #1 in Best Actor. It truly is a mind vs. gut instinct, with the former having everything on paper needed for a win (narrative, passion role, etc.), while the latter has that “old school” Oscar-winning role. Considering how strong that trailer has played, and the anticipation for Marty Supreme (still hoping for a shocking Telluride premiere, but it’s highly unlikely), it seems right at the moment.
– Putting Del Toro’s Frankenstein in adapted screenplay over Deliver Me From Nowhere, as the storyline for the former is rumored to be incredibly narratively daring, and if Netflix plays their cards right, this could be a stealth contender over the more traditional musical biopic.
– Taking out Bugonia in adapted screenplay (fairly bold) and putting in Park Chan-Wook’s No Other Choice due to its pre-release buzz.
– Putting The Perfect Neighbor back at #1 in documentary and Scarlet at #1 in Animated for the first time
– Putting Jay Kelly in editing over One Battle After Another
– Putting Wicked For Good in sound over One Battle After Another
– Taking The Testament of Ann Lee out of song and putting in Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
– Moved Deliver Me From Nowhere to #1 in Best Sound
Best Picture
1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Jay Kelly
4. Marty Supreme
5. Wicked for Good
6. Hamnet
7. The Testament of Ann Lee
8. Rental Family
9. One Battle After Another
10. It Was Just an Accident
Best Director
1. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
2. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
4. Mona Fastvold, The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Noah Baumbach, Jay Kelly
Best Actress
1. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
4. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
5. Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Best Actor
1. Timothee Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2. George Clooney, Jay Kelly
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. Brendan Fraser, Rental Family
5. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Best Supporting Actress
1. Mari Yamamoto, Rental Family
2. Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Laura Dern, Jay Kelly
Best Supporting Actor
1. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
2. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
3. Stephen Graham, Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
4. Delroy Lindo, Sinners
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Best Original Screenplay
1. Jay Kelly
2. Sentimental Value
3. Sinners
4. Rental Family
5. It Was Just An Accident
Best Adapted Screenplay
1. Hamnet
2. One Battle After Another
3. Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
4. Frankenstein
5. No Other Choice
Best Casting
1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Rental Family
5. Jay Kelly
Best Cinematography
1. The Testament of Ann Lee
2. Frankenstein
3. Marty Supreme
4. Sinners
5. Jay Kelly
Best Editing
1. Sinners
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sentimental Value
4. Jay Kelly
5. Wicked: For Good
Best Production Design
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. The Testament of Ann Lee
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Sinners
Best Costume Design
1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. The Testament of Ann Lee
4. Sinners
5. Hamnet
Best Makeup and Hairstyling
1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Sinners
5. 28 Years Later
Best Visual Effects
1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. Mission: Impossible – The Final Reckoning
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps
Best Sound
1. Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Wicked For Good
Best Score
1. Sinners
2. Ann Lee
3. Frankenstein
4. Jay Kelly
5. Hamnet
Best Original Song
1. Wicked: For Good (Cynthia Erivo)
2. Dear Me (Diane Warren Biopic)
3. Wicked Song #2 (Ariana Grande)
4. I Lied To You from Sinners
5. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
Best International Feature
1. Sentimental Value
2. The Secret Agent
3. Sound Of Falling
4. No Other Choice
5. It Was Just an Accident (though if it is not submitted, considering the director’s relationship with the country, and no one picks it up, I would go with The Voice of Hind Rajab)
Best Animated Feature
1. Scarlet
2. Arco
3. A Magnificent Life
4. Zootopia 2
5. KPop Demon Hunters
Best Documentary Feature
1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Cutting Through Rocks
3. Seeds
4. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
5. The Eyes of Ghana
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