Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Best Supporting Actor and “Category Placement”

Continuing on from the past few weeks regarding above the line categories, it’s time to look at what the consensus might be for Best Supporting Actor, and what the Awards Community thinks could be considered a “frontrunner” or “challenger” for ultimately prevailing in the end.

From the Award Expert app, this is the consensus at the current moment.

Out front, ever since the film’s premiere at the Cannes Film Festival, has been Stellan Skarsgård for Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value. Though considered by some to be a “leading role” in the domestic drama, many believe pushing Reinsve as the sole lead for the film was a strategic, logical decision that would both help her chances in said category and perhaps push a frontrunner in the supporting actor category. In the eyes of those who follow this race closely, it’s very possible that it will, in fact, pay off. After seeing every performance in this consensus five, Skarsgård has what it takes on the merit of performance, and the narrative of being well-liked as an actor, to go all the way in the end. 

However, his stiffest competition comes from someone who is perhaps the polar opposite in both likability and the correlation to an “overdue narrative.” Sean Penn in One Battle After Another has won two Oscars in lead, has some personal controversies, and is portraying a character many deem is unlikable, and even has some detractors who think his performance is not deserving of awards whatsoever. However, many consider what he does indispensable to the strength of Paul Thomas Anderson’s film, playing a villainous character who, in their view, reflects the current times in which people live. Add in One Battle After Another’s strength in the respective Best Picture race, and Penn could easily join the ranks of Frances McDormand and Jack Nicholson in having three acting Oscars, though the reactions from film Twitter and the detractors of OBAA would be noticeable. 

Behind the two of them is a performance that would be considered a lock in this category, but might opt for the lead depending on what is ultimately decided upon. It felt too early for me to put Paul Mescal in my leading actor predictions when many believe that, akin to Skarsgård, it would be decided to put him in supporting to spotlight his co-star as the lead of said film, this time, being the frontrunner in said category. Though Mescal has everything it takes to go in lead, it truly might be the safer choice to go in supporting, though I truly believe he has a better chance of actually prevailing in the lead in certain races (such as Golden Globes, BAFTA, etc). For this predictions article, I would specify both circumstances and cover my bases as opposed to just sticking with one. 

The last two slots are a lot harder to figure out, and though Adam Sandler for Jay Kelly, plus Jeremy Strong for Deliver Me From Nowhere have what it takes to land here, a lot of it will depend on strength of their films, their competition, and even their costars, with Strong being assisted by Allen White’s presence in lead, while Sandler might not have the same regarding Clooney. 

Other contenders being considered for Supporting Actor include Delroy Lindo for Sinners, Benicio Del Toro for One Battle After Another, Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein, Miles Caton for Sinners, and Akira Emoto for Rental Family.

Oscar Predictions for week of October 6

With the impending reactions to what is likely to be Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme tomorrow night in New York, a lot of this could change, but for now, here are a few notable changes

• With Searchlight Pictures acquiring The Testament of Ann Lee, signifying a level of confidence in the film with a release date in December, I have put that back into Best Picture, swapping out Scott Cooper’s Deliver Me From Nowhere, which has stabilized in the “just good” consensus, but a lot of it might depend on box office
• For lead actor, if Mescal is in the category, there is no change, if he goes supporting, I would insert Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon 
• I have moved Sean Penn into the #1 spot for Supporting Actor over Skarsgård, but it’s a truly competitive race now
• For supporting actor, if Mescal goes into the category, it would be at the expense of Lindo, if he doesn’t there is no change
• Chase Infiniti in Best Supporting Actress over Lilleaas, I believe the latter is more showy than Fanning but the former is the bigger name and has industry respect.
• One Battle After Another in the #1 spot over Sinners in Casting winner prediction.
• Weapons in editing over Sentimental Value because of growing sentiment the film will be a big “steak eater” film in the industry (the guilds will be big supporters)
• Frankenstein in Adapted Screenplay over No Other Choice, though I am seeing the latter next week so this could change

Alas, here are the predictions

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Sentimental Value
5. Marty Supreme
6. Frankenstein
7. Wicked: For Good
8. It Was Just An Accident
9. The Voice of Hind Rajab
10. The Testament of Ann Lee

Alts: The Netflix Trio (House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man), No Other Choice, Is This Thing On?, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Bugonia, and Avatar: Fire and Ash)

Best Director

1.  Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
3. Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident

Alts: Ryan Coogler, Sinners, Park Chan-Wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Emma Stone, Bugonia
5. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Alt: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2.  Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
5. Paul Mescal, Hamnet (Ethan Hawke for Blue Moon if Mescal goes supporting)

Alt Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Alts: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value, Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

1.  Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
4. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
5.  Delroy Lindo, Sinners (Paul Mescal if he goes supporting)

Alt: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. It Was Just An Accident
4. Marty Supreme
5. Is This Thing On

Alts: A House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Wake Up Dead Man
5. Frankenstein

Alts: No Other Choice, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
5. Hamnet

Alt: Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. It Was Just An Accident
3. The Voice of Hind Rajab
4. The Secret Agent
5. No Other Choice

(Alt: Sirât)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Cutting Through Rocks
3. Seeds
4. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
5. The Cycle of Love

(Alt: Mr. Nobody Against Putin)  

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. A Magnificent Life

(Alt: Elio)

Best Cinematography

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. Weapons

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. 28 Years Later
4. Wolf Man
5. The Smashing Machine

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. Mission Impossible – The Final Reckoning
5. F1

Best Sound

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. F1
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Score

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Song

1. No Place Like Home from Wicked: For Good
2. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
3. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
4. I Lied to You from Sinners
5. Girl In a Bubble from Wicked: For Good

Eight wins for One Battle After Another seems excessive, but recent Best Picture winners tend to be dominant in its win tallies so it’s not out of the realm of possibility. Nevertheless, it’s potential hurdles could hurt its chances down the road. Very much a wait and see. 

If you want to follow me on Twitter (x), the link is here

If you want to follow me on Letterboxd, the link is here

I’m also on the Awards Expert app, you can find me there.