Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Best Original and Adapted Screenplay Analysis

For this week, continuing on with the above the line category talk, it’s time to focus on the writing Oscars, and what is in contention, plus what the individuals paying attention to this race think is a “frontrunner” or simply in the conversation to make a play here.

Best Original Screenplay

Let’s take a look at what the Award Expert Community thinks is in contention for this race, from the top five to what is on the outside looking in.

From the Award Expert App:

Looking at the community’s predictions listed above, there does seem to be a clear consensus top four that the vast majority of people (over 80% of users) are collectively predicting. Coogler’s Sinners, Trier’s Sentimental Value, Bronstein and Safdie’s Marty Supreme, and Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident can be defined as fairly likely nominees in this said field. Whether or not this becomes a coronation run for Ryan Coogler (or a consolation prize for Sinners) remains to be seen, as he faces competition specifically from international films, not only from Trier, but from Panahi, who many believe could be a dark horse contender to win this category.

The fifth slot is where many are finding difficulty in feeling confident. Mortimer and Baumbach’s work for Jay Kelly, though not universally praised by either critics or audiences, still has all the makings of an industry film. Behind him is Noah Oppenheim’s A House of Dynamite, which, though not nearly as beloved as it was in the initial Venice reactions, is still a contender to make this five. Zach Cregger’s script for Weapons could also take off if the film becomes strong in the Best Picture and Best Supporting Actress race, but that remains to be seen. Next is Eva Victor’s quiet but powerful script for Sorry, Baby which has still resonated months after its release. Bradley Cooper, Mark Chappell, and Will Arnett’s Is This Thing On? Which screened to decent reviews after NYFF, could sneak in here if it resonates with festival audience, same with Fastvold and Corbet’s work for The Testament of Ann Lee.

If I had to predict a five it would be,

1. Sinners
2. It Was Just An Accident
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. Jay Kelly

(Alt: Is This Thing On? A House of Dynamite)

Best Adapted Screenplay

Found on the Award Expert community page, here are the films in contention for Best Adapted Screenplay.

There are two films that are in contention for a win here. Paul Thomas Anderson’s script that is “inspired by” Pynchon’s Vineland for One Battle After Another, and Zhao’s collaborative work with Maggie O’Farrell to craft an intimate story in Hamnet. Though this is undoubtedly a two-horse race in my mind, the community is overwhelmingly believing in PTA, with 78% of users predicting a win. If I had to guess, PTA is favored to win CCA and WGA (as the latter favors political satires and dialogue heavy scripts), while the Hamnet duo is favored for USC Scripter (due to the adaptation of it all) and BAFTA.

Will Tracy’s script for Bugonia is also satirical, and though the film is no longer the “Oscar Frontrunner” some deem it to be, this seems like an ideal nomination for it. Same for Rian Johnson’s third Knives Out film, Wake Up Dead Man.

The last slot remains a mystery, with many thinking Park Chan-Wook’s No Other Choice fits the genre-bending, international slot that some films have represented over the past years, but Guillermo Del Toro’s Frankenstein seems very much like the accessible, respectable work that often gets in here. Scott Cooper’s work for Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhereremains plausible, as does Holzman and Fox’s Wicked: For Good. If there is one film I would vouch for, it would undoubtedly be Kwedar and Bentley’s empathetic Train Dreams, which is easily one of my favorites of the year and should be Netflix’s top pony in the race. Will very much depend on what happens over the next few months. Shoutout to Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck, which is still in this race even if its TIFF Audience Award seems like eons ago.

If I had to guess the lineup as of today, I would go with

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Wake Up Dead Man
5. Frankenstein

(Alts: No Other Choice and Train Dreams)

Oscar Predictions for week of October 20, 2014

A few below the line changes for this week

• Marty Supreme out of cinematography, Train Dreams in
• Weapons out of editing, F1 in
• Wolfman out of makeup, Weapons in
• Moving Golden from KPop: Demon Hunters to #1 tentatively in Original Song
• Took Tron: Ares out of visual effects, Mission Impossible back in

Without further ado, here are the predictions

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Wicked: For Good
6. Frankenstein
7. It Was Just An Accident
8. Sentimental Value
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash
10. The Testament of Ann Lee

Alts: The Netflix Trio (House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man), No Other Choice, Is This Thing On?, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Bugonia,

Best Director

1.  Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
5. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Alts: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value Park Chan-Wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Alt: Emma Stone, Bugonia  Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Julia Roberts, After the Hunt

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2.  Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
4. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
5. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

Alt: Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme

Alts: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value, Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

1.  Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3.  Paul Mescal, Hamnet
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
5. Jeremy Strong, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Alt: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. It Was Just An Accident
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. Jay Kelly

Alts: Is This Thing On,? A House of Dynamite

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Bugonia
4. Wake Up Dead Man
5. Frankenstein

Alts: No Other Choice, Train Dreams

Best Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Alt: Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. It Was Just An Accident
3. The Voice of Hind Rajab
4. The Secret Agent
5. No Other Choice

(Alt: Sirât, The President’s Cake)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Cutting Through Rocks
3. Seeds
4. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
5. The Cycle of Love

(Alt: Mr. Nobody Against Putin)  

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. Scarlet

(Alt: Elio and A Magnificent Life)

Best Cinematography

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Train Dreams

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. F1

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. 28 Years Later
4. The Smashing Machine
5. Weapons

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. F1
5. Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning

Best Sound

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. F1
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Score

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Song

1. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
2. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good
3. No Place Like Home from Wicked: For Good
4. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
5. I Lied to You from Sinners

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