NextGen Oscarwatcher: Oscar’s Best Casting Category

Continuing on with the above-the-line analysis, it’s quite clear that the one category that continues to raise more questions than answers, even as the nominations approach, is the 24^th category in Best Casting. Considered an above-the-line category until further notice, many still wonder what could be in contention for a nomination, let alone a win. Will the voting body lean more towards best picture nominees, or could this race be more unpredictable than some are letting on? Using the Award Expert app, here is something some people believe is possible for a nomination

From the Award Expert App

There is undoubtedly a consensus top three in Coogler’s Sinners, PTA’s One Battle After Another, and Chu’s Wicked: For Good. After that, it becomes kind of a mess. Some believe Trier’s Sentimental Value, which is likely to pick up three acting nominations, could show up, and others think Safdie’s Marty Supreme, coupled with a plausible Best Actor win in Chalamet, could propel it towards a nomination. 

Zhao’s Hamnet, and its inspired casting choices (like the Jupe brothers playing both Hamnet and Hamlet) could undoubtedly play a factor here on top of being a top tier best picture contender, Johnson’s Wake Up Dead Man and its inspired ensemble is an unknown quantity, as is Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Baumbach’s Jay Kelly, and Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite. 

If I had to make a stab at what this five could be, it would probably be something like

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Wicked For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another getting up to six acting nominations (not a prediction, but a very remote possibility), in addition to its Best Picture strength, could give it the edge here, but we really are just throwing darts at a dartboard with this. 

SAG and The Populist Contenders

Ever since SAG joined up with AFTRA, it’s clear that the branch (with its nearly 200,000 voting body) has become a more populist group of individuals in what has been honored. Though a select 2,000 choose the nominees, films like The Brutalist, Roma, The Power of the Dog, and others of the sort are not the type to be warmly embraced by this subset of people(evident by the SAG Ensemble miss). 

Looking at the Award Expert app again, let’s see what the community thinks will get nominated for Best Ensemble

Like Best Casting, there is a clear top three in One Battle After Another, Sinners, and Wicked: For Good. Any of these films winning would not be the slightest bit shocking, and a snub would be quite the miss this entire season. Marty Supreme could be a prime sag contender with its star-studded cast, and many still think Trier’s Sentimental Value is strong enough to become just the fourth international feature to make the five. 

After this, it’s a small drop off with Zhao’s Hamnet is sixth, though undoubtedly a strong film from an acting standpoint, the ensemble is fairly small, and akin to something like La La Land or The Holdovers, people might remember the individual performances more than the ensemble as a whole. 

Baumbach’s Jay Kelly is #7, and with industry screenings rumored to have played very well this week, this could very much be a guild movie that Netflix pushes hard. Similarly, Netflix’s Wake Up Dead Man is right behind it at eight, as is Bigelow’s A House of Dynamite and Cooper’s Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

If I had to predict a five, it would be

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Wicked For Good
4. Jay Kelly
5. Marty Supreme

One Battle After Another seems likely to lead SAG nominations with a likely minimum of four, and a realistic ceiling of seven (if you include stunts as a major nomination), though that isn’t always a precedent for wins, actors could heavily push PTA’s film, but this could also be the case if Sinners or Wicked For Good end up taking ensemble instead

Oscar Predictions for Week of October 27

For this week, a couple of notable changes

• With the deteriorating critical reviews and financial hurdles, I have removed Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere from all my predictions, specifically in Best Actor, Best Supporting Actor, and Best Casting.
• George Clooney has now re-entered the top five for Jay Kelly
• Wicked For Good is now in casting for Springsteen
• I have put Benicio Del Toro in Best Supporting Actor over Strong, with Elordi still as a strong #6
• No Other Choice is back in Adapted Screenplay over Bugonia
• I have put Frankenstein back into cinematography over The Testament of Ann Lee
• Elio over Scarlet in Animated Feature
• The Alabama Situation over Seeds in Documentary
• The biggest switch is in International Feature, where I am now predicting It Was Just An Accident to prevail over Sentimental Value

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Wicked: For Good
6. Frankenstein
7. It Was Just An Accident
8. Sentimental Value
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash
10. The Testament of Ann Lee

Alts: The Netflix Trio (House of Dynamite, Jay Kelly, Wake Up Dead Man), Weapons,  No Other Choice, Is This Thing On?, The Voice of Hind Rajab, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Bugonia

Best Director

1.  Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
3. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
4. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
5. Ryan Coogler, Sinners

Alts: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value Park Chan-Wook, No Other Choice

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Alts: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue,  

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2.  Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly 

Alt: Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme

Alts: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value, Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

1.  Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3.  Paul Mescal, Hamnet
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
5. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Alt: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Best Original Screenplay

1. 1. Sinners
   2. It Was Just An Accident
   3. Sentimental Value
   4. Marty Supreme
   5. Jay Kelly

Alt: The Secret Agent

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Wake Up Dead Man
4. Frankenstein
5. No Other Choice

Alts: No Other Choice, Train Dreams

Best Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme

Alt: Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

Best International Feature

1. It Was Just An Accident
2. Sentimental Value
3. No Other Choice
4. The Secret Agent
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

(Alts: Sirât, The President’s Cake)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Cutting Through Rocks
3. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
4. The Alabama Situation
5. The Cycle of Love

(Alt: Mr. Nobody Against Putin)  

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. Elio

(Alts: Scarlet and A Magnificent Life)

Best Cinematography

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. F1

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. 28 Years Later
4. The Smashing Machine
5. Weapons

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. F1
5. Mission Impossible: The Final Reckoning

Best Sound

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. F1
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Score

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Song

1. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
2. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good
3. No Place Like Home from Wicked: For Good
4. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
5. I Lied to You from Sinners

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