“People will think…”
“What I tell them to think.” — Citizen Kane
Most movies in the screener pile are movies Oscar voters do not want to watch. It’s been years of this by now. It’s pure misery much of the time. It’s angry. It’s political. It’s often grotesque. It’s preachy. It’s agonizing. It’s anything but pure pleasure. That’s why they don’t watch all of the movies, and yet Film Twitter and many purists demand they eat their vegetables.
This is true every year. There are only a few reasons people will watch a movie. It’s got a lot of buzz. It has watchable movie stars and sex, quite frankly, as long as it is sexy and not grotesque. The movies Oscar voters will watch are: Sinners, One Battle After Another, Hamnet, Jay Kelly, Frankenstein, and Sentimental Value. This much we know for sure. We also know that they are choosing from a pile already chosen for them by a massive money-and-sycophant machine of bloggers and critics. Not a lot of it is them thinking for themselves. They decide the movies as if they were deciding which dessert they want on the platter.
Ideally, audiences would decide success. But to quote Louise in Thelma and Louise, “we don’t live in that kind of world anymore, Thelma!”
“You keep dancing with the Devil, one day it’s gonna follow you home.” – Sinners
The movie that should be winning Best Picture this year by a long way is Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. The pundits, however, have decided that the whole thing must hang on international voters who weren’t so keen on the movie. If anyone could imagine a more absurd predicament for an awards show that theoretically is about fortifying the film industry. But what do people in Belgium think?
Sinners is an American masterpiece. It is one for the ages. And yet, everyone tells me it can’t and won’t win. Why not? Because the pundits and the critics decide. Or at least, that’s what they think. What I’ve learned in 26 long years on this beat is that you can’t fight the tide sometimes and the frontrunner becomes inevitable.
I can count on one hand the movies I wanted to win that actually won in a given year. By far, the movies I did not want to win did, in fact, win. I got lucky last year. I wanted Anora to win, and I believed she would win, and she did. But most of the time, it’s been a frustrating nightmare of epic proportions. I am not proud of the angry fits I’ve had over the years over some movies winning that I did not think deserved to win. Ultimately, who cares, right?
But I always look back fondly when it was all green lights. I started in 2000, here is how it’s gone.
2000– wanted to win: Crouching Tiger, Hidden Dragon — did win: Gladiator
2001–wanted to win: A Beautiful Mind — did win: A Beautiful Mind
2002–wanted to win: The Pianist — did win: Chicago
2003–no opinion — did: ROTK
2004–wanted to win: The Aviator — did win: Million Dollar Baby
2005–wanted to win: Brokeback Mountain — did win: Crash
2006–wanted to win: The Departed — did win: The Departed
2007–wanted to win: No Country for Old Men — did win: No Country for Old Men
2008–wanted to win: The Curious Case of Benjamin Button — did win: Slumdog Millionaire
2009–wanted to win: The Hurt Locker — did win: The Hurt Locker
2010–wanted to win: The Social Network — did win: The King’s Speech
2011–wanted to win: Hugo — did win: The Artist
2012–wanted to win: Lincoln (or Life of Pi) — did win: Argo
2013–wanted to win: 12 Years a Slave — did win: 12 Years a Slave
2014–wanted to win: Boyhood — did win: Birdman
2015–wanted to win: The Big Short — did win: Spotlight
2016–wanted to win: Moonlight — did win: Moonlight
2017–wanted to win: The Shape of Water — did win: The Shape of Water
2018–wanted to win: Green Book — did win: Green Book
2019–wanted to win: 1917 (or Once Upon a Time in Hollywood) did win: Parasite
2020–wanted to win: Mank — did win: Nomadland
2021–wanted to win: Belfast — did win: CODA
2022–wanted to win: Top Gun Maverick — did win: Everything Everywhere
2023–wanted to win: Oppenheimer — did win: Oppenheimer
2024–wanted to win Anora — did win: Anora
The years when the movie I didn’t want to win actually won sucked. And I fear we’re about to enter another one of those. The inevitability of One Battle After Another has turned this race into a death march, at least for me. It’s too depressing to contemplate enduring these next weeks and months with the same movie winning over and over again. Think about the self-righteous, agonizing speeches we’ll be getting. I wish I could go into an induced COMA and sleep through it, but I will have to grim up and do my job, even if this is the last time, and it might be. No Country for Old Oscar Bloggers.
The days of movies like The Godfather or Titanic winning are long gone. So even if I know Sinners will stand the test of time and go down as one of the all-time greats from this year, I also know that it won’t matter because the INTERNATIONAL VOTERS don’t care. It isn’t only them. Plenty of Oscar voters won’t care either because they can’t vibe with vampires, even if it is glorious magical realism.
The best thing about Sinners is that it wasn’t made to win Oscars, just like Anora wasn’t made to win Oscars. Coogler just wanted to make a good movie. That’s why audiences flocked to it and why it will stand the test of time.
Giving out film awards isn’t really about the best or the most popular. It is what best reflects the voters – who they are and what they think. What makes them look good? This year, One Battle will send what they believe is a message to Trump and the other half of America and that might be like walking around with a loaded gun. How can you not pull the trigger?
Wicked Gets Political
I was wondering how the Wicked narrative would play out. Part One was released when Joe Biden was in power. It didn’t resonate with the Woketopians the way it needed to. After all, they were in power, and they were condemning witches like me, and how to justify or reconcile that? Are we the bad guys? Well, lucky for them, Trump is now in power, and the whole thing slots in nicely the way it is supposed to. The metaphor that the Wizard is Trump works out, and Wicked: For Good becomes another anti-ICE, anti-Trump movie heading into the Oscar race.
Ariana Grande has already been outspoken online.
And that brought Trump into it:
She might win the Oscar just because she made Trump mad. Of course, people are praising her work but there is no doubt that turning her win, like One Battle’s, into a righteous political rallying cry will help.
Do Oscar voters think for themselves?
Yes and no. The truth about the Oscar race is that it’s just like this scene in The Devil Wears Prada. The movies are selected for them by the people in this room from a bag of stuff.
The movies are winnowed down and curated into a smaller pile. The more people who vote on something, the bigger the consensus. To change the outcome would require changing or persuading all of those people to have the same taste.
I do think that if One Battle is going to win Best Picture then it probably wins everything, all of the guilds, all of the critics awards. It becomes an Argo-like march to victory. It comes in as the frontrunner, which means it better be teflon because it’s an exhausting season and voters get very bored of the same old, same old. It’s hard to sustain euphoria unless the movie delivers the goods. I don’t think One Battle does but I am likely alone in that.
Let’s look at frontrunners since 2009 and how they fared between critics awards and industry awards.
2009–the frontrunner was Avatar (Globe). After it won the Globe, The Hurt Locker (BAFTA/PGA/DGA) prevailed.
2010–the frontrunner was The Social Network (Globe); The King’s Speech (PGA/DGA/SAG/BAFTA) won.
2011–The Artist (PGA/DGA/Globe/BAFTA) was the frontrunner, stayed the frontrunner.
2012–Lincoln was the frontrunner until Ben Affleck was snubbed for Best Director, then Argo swept the season (Globe/BAFTA/PGA/DGA/SAG).
2013–Gravity (1/2 PGA/DGA) was the frontrunner; 12 Years a Slave won (1/2 PGA/Globe/BAFTA).
2014–Boyhood (Globe/BAFTA) was the frontrunner; Birdman (PGA/DGA/SAG) won.
2015-The Revenant (Globe/BAFTA/DGA) was the frontrunner: Spotlight (SAG) won.
2016-La La Land (Globe/BAFTA/PGA/DGA) was the frontrunner; Moonlight won.
2017-Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri (Globe/BAFTA/SAG) was the frontrunner; The Shape of Water won (PGA/DGA)
2018–ROMA (BAFTA/DGA) was the frontrunner; Green Book (Globe/PGA) won.
2019–1917 (Globe/BAFTA/PGA/DGA) was the frontrunner; Parasite (SAG) won.
2020–Nomadland (BAFTA/Globe/PGA/DGA) was the frontrunner, stayed the frontrunner.
2021–The Power of the Dog (Globe/BAFTA/DGA) was the frontrunner; CODA (PGA/SAG) won.
2022–Everything, Everywhere All At Once (PGA/DGA/SAG) was the frontrunner, stayed the frontunner.
2023–Oppenhiemer (Globe/BAFTA/PGA/DGA/SAG) was the frontrunner, stayed the frontrunner.
2024–Emilia Perez (Globe) and The Brutalist (Globe) were the frontrunners; Anora won.
Predictions
At the moment, Best Picture is down to three. The frontrunner: One Battle After Another. The challenger: Hamnet. The underdog: Sinners.
Wicked For Good and Avatar: Fire and Ash will be big money makers but not Best Picture winners. One Battle is your most likely winner, but I can’t bring myself to predict it. So take my predictions with a grain of salt.
Best Picture
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Sentimental Value
Frankenstein
Wicked for Good
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Marty Supreme
Bugonia
Train Dreams
Best Director
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
On the bubble: Jim Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash, Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident, Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value, Jon M. Chu, Wicked for Good
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Cynthia Erivo, Wicked for Good
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
On the bubble: Chase Infiniti, One Battle, Julia Roberts, After the Hunt
Best Actor
Timothée Chalament, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
On the bubble: Dwayne Johnson, The Smashing Machine, Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Supporting Actress
Ariana Grande, Wicked for Good
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Ayo Edebiri, After the Hunt
Glenn Close, Wake Up Dead Man
Supporting Actor
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Original Screenplay
Sinners
Sentimental Value
Weapons
Bugonia
It Was Just An Accident
Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
The Life of Chuck
Frankenstein
Wicked for Good
Casting
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Wicked For Good
Hamnet
Springsteen Deliver Me From Nowhere
International Feature
The Secret Agent
No Other Choice
Sentimental Value
Nouvelle Vague
Sirat
Editing
Sinners
One Battle After Another
F1
Marty Supreme
Weapons
Cinematography
Avatar: Fire and Ash
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
F1
Production Design
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Sinners
Frankenstein
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Costume
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Score
Sinners
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
F1
Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
The Smashing Machine
Christy
Wicked: For Good
Sinners
Sound
Sinners
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Wicked: For Good
One Battle After Another
That’s all I got. Happy Halloween.
