Nextgen Oscarwatcher: Analyzing the other 15 Oscar categories (excluding the shorts)

This is undoubtedly the “calm before the storm” in the Oscar season, with just four films left to be released or have the embargo lifted (those being Safdie’s Marty Supreme, Chu’s Wicked For Good though by the time one reads this post it very likely will have been, Cameron’s Avatar: The Way of Water and if you count it, Brooks’s Ella McCay). Everything else has been seen or people have an idea of how it is received or will be treated in the awards race. If one has been reading these columns over the past month, the top nine Oscar categories have been given extensive treatment and analysis, giving insights into what others think and what could be in contention. 

However, there are 15 other Oscar categories (excluding the shorts as what is eligible and/or in contention hasn’t properly been revealed) that should be looked into regarding what is contention and what people think could get nominated. In contrast to the previous columns, we can look at these categories through a Frontrunners and Challengers Mindset. 

Let’s start with the major film categories of Animated Feature, Documentary Feature, and International Feature

Animated Feature

Though Zootopia 2’s embargo hasn’t been lifted and the early reactions have been positive, one can’t deny that Chris Appelhans and Maggie Kang’s KPop Demon Hunters has very much defined this year’s category. An unlikely frontrunner due to its genre and presentation, and one that not everyone believes in, it’s very tough to imagine a world where it doesn’t win or come close due to its sheer popularity (most popular film on Netflix). However, as stated before, Zootopia 2 could be a big hit, and with its timely message, it could give the franchise a second win in this category. Other contenders include Arco and Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Frontrunner: KPop Demon Hunters

Challengers: Zootopia 2, Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Documentary Feature

Often the hardest feature category to look into due to the lack of narrative feature audiences and the unpredictability surrounding what the branch will respond to, Geeta Gandbhir’s The Perfect Neighbor has taken the label of frontrunner after cleaning up at the annual Critics Choice documentary awards this month (you can find the rest of the winners here). It’s a precarious position due to the amount of frontrunners that have missed recently. However, cautiously, it feels solid enough for a win here as of this moment. Challengers include 2000 Meters to Andriivka, Mr. Nobody Against Putin, and The Cycle of Love (if it releases or gets distribution this year) among many others

Frontrunner: The Perfect Neighbor 

Challengers: Mr. Nobody Against Putin, 2000 meters to Andriivka (or anything else at this moment)

International Feature

The most competitive of this feature awards and the one that is getting more traction due to the international voting body of the Academy, there are a distinct two frontrunners here in Trier’s Sentimental Value (Norway) and Panahi’s It Was Just An Accident (France). Other projects that are getting a significant amount of traction include Park’s No Other Choice (South Korea) and the Filho’s The Secret Agent (Brazil). All of these films stand a chance of getting other nominations in addition to international feature (the full list of what has been selected can be found here). There remains the chance that the powerful emotional resonance of Hania’s The Voice of Hind Rajab or the thrill of Laxe’s Sirât makes a play. This race is always a thrilling experience.  If only this category changed who gets the Oscar, and the winner were considered an Oscar-winning filmmaker, then we would have it all, wouldn’t we? 

Frontrunners: It Was Just An Accident and Sentimental Value

Challengers: No Other Choice, The Secret Agent

Best Editing

Though usually a big prelude to Best Picture in recent years (and often hard to predict), this is one of the easiest races to call this early. Jurgensen’s work for One Battle After Another, from the pacing to the action sequences, and just the ability he makes the nearly three-hour epic fly back is monumental. It’s hard to imagine PTA’s film losing the Oscar, but if there was to be a challenger, it would be in the form of Shawver’s Sinners or Safide and Bronstein’s Marty Supreme

Frontrunner: One Battle After Another 

Challengers: Sinners, Marty Supreme

Best Cinematography 

A very competitive race, with Bauman’s One Battle After Another, Żal’s Hamnet, and Arkapaw’s Sinners rounding out what could realistically win, with Lausten’s Frankenstein, and Khondji’s Marty Supreme as potential challengers. There are also sleeper contenders in Veloso’s Train Dreams and Rexer’s The Testament of Ann Lee

Frontrunners: Hamnet, Sinners, One Battle After Another

Challengers: Frankenstein, Train Dreams

Best Production Design

A battle between Frankenstein and Wicked: For Good here, alongside two other categories down the road. Other contenders include Avatar: Fire and Ash and Hamnet, with Testament of Ann Lee on the bubble.

Frontrunners: Frankenstein and Wicked: For Good

Challengers: Avatar: Fire and Ash, Hamnet

Best Costume Design

Once again a battle Between Frankenstein and Wicked: For Good. Difficult to imagine it going any other way here. Challengers include Hamnet and Sinners, with Testament of Ann Lee right outside. 

Frontrunners: Wicked: For Good, Frankenstein

Challengers: Hamnet, Sinners

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

Unlike the other two design categories, there does seem to be a solid frontrunner here in Frankenstein. Wicked: For Good is a challenger as is Weapons and a few others

Frontrunner: Frankenstein

Challengers: Wicked: For Good and Weapons

Best Sound

A category without a definitive frontrunner, the contenders that stick out are One Battle After Another, Sinners, and potentially F1. The correlation to editing isn’t as strong as it used to be, but what gives something like OBAA or Sinners a chance is the nomination correlation. 

Frontrunners: One Battle After Another, Sinners

Challengers: F1, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Visual Effects

Easiest race to call. Avatar: Fire And Ash is prevailing, hard to say what the challengers would even be. 

Frontrunner: Avatar: Fire And Ash

Challengers: Wicked: For Good, F1

Best Original Score

Another battle between One Battle After Another and Sinners, it seems this race comes down to whether Greenwood will finally prevail for his stylistically unique take in One Battle After Another, or if Göransson will pull it off for a third time. Other contenders include Richter’s work for Hamnet and Lopatin’s Marty Supreme. Potential eligibility concerns regarding Blumberg’s work on The Testament of Ann Lee remain, but they will hopefully be addressed soon. 

Frontrunners: One Battle After Another, Sinners

Challengers: Hamnet, Marty Supreme

Best Original Song

Always one of the hardest categories to analyze. This race is down to three frontrunners: Golden from KPop Demon Hunters, The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good, and I Lied To You from Sinners. Challengers include the always-present Diane Warren for her songs Dear Me from Diane Warren: Relentless and Clothed By The Sun from The Testament of Ann Lee.

Frontrunners: Golden from KPop Demon Hunters, The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good, and I Lied To You from Sinners

Challengers: Dear Me from Diane Warren: Relentless, Clothed By The Sun from The Testament of Ann Lee

Oscar Predictions For Week of November 17

For the predictions this week, not much has changed outside of two switches

• Blue Moon in Original Screenplay over Jay Kelly
• Mr. Nobody Against Putin over Crossing Through Rocks in Documentary Feature

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Wicked: For Good
7. It Was Just An Accident
8. Sentimental Value
9. The Testament of Ann Lee
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Alts: Jay Kelly, Weapons, Blue Moon, The Voice of Hind Rajab, No Other Choice

Best Director

1.  Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident

Alts: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good
3. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
4. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
5. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Alts: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue,  

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2.  Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Alts: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams, Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
3. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme

Alts: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value, Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme,  Emily Blunt, The Smashing Machine

Best Supporting Actor

1.  Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3.  Paul Mescal, Hamnet
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
5. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Alt: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein 

Best Original Screenplay

1. 1. Sinners
   2. It Was Just An Accident
   3. Sentimental Value
   4. Marty Supreme
   5. Blue Moon

Alts: Jay Kelly, The Secret Agent, Weapons

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Wake Up Dead Man
4. Frankenstein
5. No Other Choice

Alts: Bugonia, Train Dreams 

Best Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Wicked: For Good
4. Hamnet
5. Marty Supreme

Alt: Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

Best International Feature

1. It Was Just An Accident
2. Sentimental Value
3. No Other Choice
4. The Secret Agent
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

(Alts: Sirât, The President’s Cake)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
4. The Alabama Solution
5. The Cycle of Love

(Alt: Cutting Through Rocks)  

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. Elio

(Alts: Scarlet and A Magnificent Life)

Best Cinematography

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Train Dreams
5. Frankenstein

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. F1

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

1. Wicked: For Good
2. Frankenstein
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. 28 Years Later
4. The Smashing Machine
5. Weapons

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Superman
4. F1
5. Predator: Badlands

Best Sound

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. F1
4. Wicked: For Good
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Score

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Song

1. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
2. I Lied to You from Sinners
3. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good
4. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
5. Clothed By The Sun from: The Testament of Ann Lee

If you want to follow me on Twitter (x), the link is here

If you want to follow me on Letterboxd, the link is here

I’m also on the Awards Expert app, you can find me there.