Nextgen Oscarwatcher: When Oscar Contenders Underwhelm

The talk of the entire Oscar ecosystem (for as large or small as it may be) has been centered on Jon M. Chu’s Wicked: For Good. Opening with an incredible worldwide total (one of, if not the best, of the year for an opening weekend), many would say its awards prospects would be high in both quantity and quality, reflecting the first film.

However, the biggest takeaway from critics, not audiences, is that it doesn’t quite match the first Wicked. While the first took everyone by surprise with a solid critical consensus (certified fresh and above a 70 on Metacritic) the latter has dipped below a 70% rt score (unable to achieve certification) with a Metacritic score of a 58. While the first film opened up with an 8.2 on IMDB in its first few weeks of release, Wicked: For Good is at a 7.3, which, though not necessarily a “bad score,” shows a decrease in public approval compared to the first.

On the other hand, the film earned an A Cinemascore, which means those who showed up first in line were more than satisfied.

Call it reactionary, but some pundits have already declared its Best Picture chances null and void. In addition to the reviews, Oscar history suggests an already uphill climb not only for sequels to do well (only 10 have ever been nominated, including the expanded ballot), but also an additional challenge to match the heights of the predecessor. The first Wicked did very well in nominations, racking up ten (despite missing in categories like director and screenplay), and won two in costume design and production design.

After seeing it myself, if I had to guess what nominations I think it stands a shot in, those would be

• Supporting Actress for Ariana Grande (it’s a co-lead performance, but there’s enough here)
• Costume Design (could still win)
• Production Design
• Makeup and Hairstyling
• Original Song (For The Girl In The Bubble)

A film many (including myself, that is being used as a benchmark for Wicked: For Good in terms of being a sequel that doesn’t quite match the heights of its predecessor, would be that of Ryan Coogler’s Black Panther: Wakanda Forever, which also claimed five nominations (including one for supporting actress) and had its presence felt the entire season.

Unfortunately, and after seeing it, I can attest that the two biggest categories Wicked: For Good will have difficulty repeating are its Best Picture nomination and a nomination for Cynthia Erivo. The latter really gives it her all in the film, elevating a script (a second act, more specifically) that does neither her nor anyone else any favors. The problem isn’t just the competition she is facing, but the fact that the film isn’t really her story compared to the first, with Grande (in her category frauded role) given more material. I fully expect the film to do well in certain precursors like Critics’ Choice, perhaps getting a SAG Ensemble nod, and a Producers Guild nod (for its financial successes), but when it comes to the Oscars BP Ten, it’s a much more difficult hurdle, and it remains to be seen whether or not it can withstand its shortcomings.

The question then becomes, what takes its spots in these major categories? There are a number of films that could benefit from a best picture race that many were thinking was becoming too easy to predict. Projects like Clint Bentley’s Train Dreams (now out on Netflix), and Neon’s slate of international contenders (The Secret Agent, No Other Choice, etc) could use a boost. However, a film I might have written off too quickly that has gained a following is Yorgos Lanthimos’s Bugonia, which is still playing in theaters with solid legs despite losing theaters to bigger films.

Lanthimos’s audacious vision, assisted by Will Tracy’s satirical screenplay, might not be for everyone, but for those with whom it resonates, it really works. Reading Sasha’s wonderful review of Bugonia, available here, really highlights something that stands out about the film. Its ideas are absurdist, often difficult to grasp, but its nihilistic statements stick out. It’s a film that is both artistically unique and thematically daring. It’s a film that is still a question mark in my mind when it comes to mass appeal (and its awards prospects), but given Lanthimos’s and Stone’s love in the industry, it just might squeak in, courtesy of the international voters, in Picture, Actress, and Adapted Screenplay.

Gotham Predictions

The 35^th Annual Gotham Awards are taking place on December 1^st, 2025, but for the sake of wanting to give everyone time to read predictions before they occur, I decided to include them for this week’s column.

Best Feature

Bugonia
Ari Aster, Ed Guiney, Lars Knudsen, Jerry Kyoungboum Ko, Yorgos Lanthimos, Miky Lee, Andrew Lowe, Emma Stone, producers (Focus Features)

East of Wall
Kate Beecroft, Shannon Moss, Melanie Ramsayer, Lila Yacoub, producers (Sony Pictures Classics)

Familiar Touch
Alexandra Byer, Sarah Friedland, Matthew Thurm, producers (Music Box Films)

Hamnet
Nicolas Gonda, Pippa Harris, Liza Marshall, Sam Mendes, Steven Spielberg, producers (Focus Features)

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Ronald Bronstein, Eli Bush, Richie Doyle, Conor Hannon, Sara Murphy, Josh Safdie, Ryan Zacarias, producers (A24)

Lurker
Galen Core, Archie Madekwe, Marc Marrie, Charlie McDowell, Francesco Melzi d’Eril, Duncan Montgomery, Alex Orlovsky, Olmo Schnabel, Jack Selby, producers (MUBI)

One Battle After Another
Paul Thomas Anderson, Sara Murphy, Adam Somner, producers (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Sorry, Baby
Mark Ceryak, Barry Jenkins, Adele Romanski, producers (A24)

The Testament of Ann Lee
Brady Corbet, Mona Fastvold, Joshua Horsfield, Gregory Jankilevitsch, Mark Lampert, Lillian LaSalle, Andrew Morrison, Viktória Petrányi, Klaudia Smieja-Rostworowska, producers (Searchlight Pictures)

Train Dreams
Michael Heimler, Will Janowitz, Marissa McMahon, Ashley Schlaifer, Teddy Schwarzman (producers) (Netflix)

Winner Prediction: One Battle After Another
Alternate: If I Had Legs, I’d Kick You

Best International Feature

It Was Just an Accident
Philippe Martin, Jafar Panahi, producers (NEON)

No Other Choice
Park Chan-Wook, Alexandre Gavras, Michèle Ray Gavras, Back Jisun, producers (NEON)

Nouvelle Vague
Laurent Pétin, Michèle Pétin, producers (Netflix)

Resurrection
Charles Gillibert, Yang Lele, Shan Zuolong, producers (Janus Films)

Sound of Falling
Lucas Schmidt, Maren Schmitt, producers (MUBI)

Winner Prediction: It Was Just An Accident
Alternate: No Other Choice

Best Documentary Feature 

2000 Meters to Andriivka
Mstyslav Chernov, director; Raney Aronson-Rath, Mstyslav Chernov, Michelle Mizner, producers (PBS)

BLKNWS: Terms & Conditions
Kahlil Joseph, director; Onye Anyanwu, Kahlil Joseph, David Linde, Anikah McLaren, James Shani, Steven Soderbergh, producers (Rich Spirit)

My Undesirable Friends: Part I – Last Air in Moscow
Julia Loktev, director; Julia Loktev, producer (self-distributed)

The Perfect Neighbor
Geeta Gandbhir, director; Sam Bisbee, Geeta Gandbhir, Nikon Kwantu, Alisa Payne, producers (Netflix)

Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk
Sepideh Farsi, director; Javad Djavahery, Sepideh Farsi, producers (Kino Lorber)

Winner Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor
Alternate: 2000 Meters to Andrivvka

Best Director

Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)

Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident (NEON)

Kelly Reichardt, The Mastermind (MUBI)

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Oliver Laxe, Sirât (NEON)

Winner Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Alternate: Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You or Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident

Breakthrough Director

Constance Tsang, Blue Sun Palace (Dekanalog)
Carson Lund, Eephus (Music Box Films)
Sarah Friedland, Familiar Touch (Music Box Films)
Akinola Davies Jr., My Father’s Shadow (MUBI)
Harris Dickinson, Urchin (1-2 Special)

Winner Prediction: Akinola Davies Jr, My Father’s Shadow
Alternate: Harris Dickinson, Urchin

Best Original Screenplay

If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Mary Bronstein (A24)

It Was Just an Accident, Jafar Panahi (NEON)

The Secret Agent, Kleber Mendonça Filho (NEON)

Sorry, Baby, Eva Victor (A24)

Sound of Falling, Louise Peter, Mascha Schilinski (MUBI)

Winner Prediction: It Was Just an Accident
Alternate: Sorry, Baby or If I Had Legs I’d Kick You

Best Adapted Screenplay

No Other Choice, Park Chan-wook, Lee Kyoung-Mi, Jahye Lee, Don McKellar (NEON)

One Battle After Another, Paul Thomas Anderson (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Pillion, Harry Lighton (A24)

Preparation for the Next Life, Martyna Majok (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios)

Train Dreams, Clint Bentley, Greg Kwedar (Netflix)

Winner Prediction: No Other Choice
Alternate: One Battle After Another or Train Dreams

Outstanding Lead Performance 

Jessie Buckley, Hamnet (Focus Features)

Lee Byung-hun, No Other Choice (NEON)

Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You (A24)

Sopé Dìrísù, My Father’s Shadow (MUBI)

Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)

Jennifer Lawrence, Die My Love (MUBI)

Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent (NEON)

Josh O’Connor, The Mastermind (MUBI)

Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee (Searchlight Pictures)

Tessa Thompson, Hedda (Orion Pictures/Amazon/MGM Studios)

Winner Prediction: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Alternate: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet or Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee(this category could go to anyone though)

Outstanding Supporting Performance

Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (Netflix)

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value (NEON)

Indya Moore, Father Mother Sister Brother (MUBI)

Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly (Netflix)

Andrew Scott, Blue Moon (Sony Pictures Classics)

Alexander Skarsgård, Pillion (A24)

Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value (NEON)

Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Winner Prediction: Stellan Skarsgârd, Sentimental Value
Alternate: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another or Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein (this category could also go to anyone)

Breakthrough Performer

A$AP Rocky, Highest 2 Lowest (A24)

Sebiye Behtiyar, Preparation for the Next Life (Orion Pictures/Amazon MGM Studios)

Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another (Warner Bros. Pictures)

Abou Sangaré, Souleymane’s Story (Kino Lorber)

Tonatiuh, Kiss of the Spider Woman (Roadside Attractions, Lionsgate, LD Entertainment)

Winner Prediction: Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
Alternate: Tonatiuh, Kiss of the Spider Woman

 Oscar Predictions for Week of November 24

A few notable changes have occurred since last week’s column, some having to do with Wicked: For Good, others being more independent.

For the Non-Wicked changes, a few changes include

• Sinners over 28 Years Later in Makeup and Hairstyling
• Marty Supreme over Frankenstein in Cinematography
• Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Work over The Cycle of Love in documentary (as the latter is not present on eligibility list, found here)
• Bugonia over Wake Up Dead Man in Adapted Screenplay

For the Wicked: For Good changes, included is

• Bugonia over Wicked: For Good in Best Picture
• Emma Stone over Cynthia Erivo in Best Actress
• Sentimental Value over Wicked: For Good in Best Casting
• The Fantastic 4: First Steps over Wicked: For Good in Best Visual Effects
• Frankenstein over Wicked: For Good in Best Sound
• And for a winner prediction, I am tentatively moving Frankenstein into the #1 spot for Costume Design

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. It Was Just An Accident
7. Sentimental Value
8. The Testament of Ann Lee
9. Avatar: Fire and Ash
10.  Bugonia

Alts: Wicked: For Good,  Jay Kelly, Weapons, Blue Moon, The Voice of Hind Rajab, No Other Choice

Best Director

1.  Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
3. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
4. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
5. Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident

Alts: Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
2. Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
3. Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee
4. Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another
5. Emma Stone, Bugonia

Alts: Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good, Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You, Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue

Best Actor

1. Timotheé Chalamet, Marty Supreme
2.  Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
3. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
4. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
5. George Clooney, Jay Kelly

Alts: Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams, Jeremy Allen White, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, Michael B. Jordan, Sinners

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan, Weapons
2. Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
3. Ariana Grande, Wicked: For Good
4. Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
5. Odessa A’zion, Marty Supreme

Alts: Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value, Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Best Supporting Actor

1.  Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
2. Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
3.  Paul Mescal, Hamnet
4. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
5. Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another

Alt: Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. It Was Just An Accident
3. Sentimental Value
4. Marty Supreme
5. Blue Moon

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Frankenstein
4. No Other Choice
5. Bugonia

Alts: Wake Up Dead Man, Train Dreams 

Best Casting

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sentimental Value

Alt: Weapons, Wake Up Dead Man, Jay Kelly, Sentimental Value

Best International Feature

1. It Was Just An Accident
2. Sentimental Value
3. No Other Choice
4. The Secret Agent
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

(Alts: Sirât, The President’s Cake)

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. 2000 Meters to Andriivka
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
4. The Alabama Solution
5. Put Your Soul on Your Hand and Walk

(Alt: Seeds or Cutting Through Rocks)  

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Zootopia 2
3. Arco
4. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
5. Elio

(Alts: Scarlet and A Magnificent Life)

Best Cinematography

1. Hamnet
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Train Dreams
5. Marty Supreme

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. Marty Supreme
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. F1

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Avatar: Fire and Ash
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Costume Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. Sinners
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee 

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Wicked: For Good
3. 28 Years Later
4. The Smashing Machine
5. Weapons

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. Superman
3. F1
4. Predator: Badlands
5. The Fantastic Four: First Steps

Best Sound

1. One Battle After Another
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. Avatar: Fire and Ash
5. Frankenstein

Best Score

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Song

1. Golden from KPop Demon Hunters
2. I Lied to You from Sinners
3. The Girl In The Bubble from Wicked: For Good
4. Dear Me from Diane Warren Relentless
5. Clothed By The Sun from: The Testament of Ann Lee

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