2026 Oscar Predictions: Previewing the Globe Noms, Plus the Warner Bros. Disaster

Much of the industry was shaken over the news that Netflix will be the big fish that swallows up Warner Bros. Discovery, taking a massive amount of content – movies, great television shows and IPs. For some, this just means more to watch inside Costco of Content. For others, it feels like something essential just died. If you’re old like me you’ve lived through plenty of these by now.

The end of the land lines.
The end of record stores. And records.
The end of book stores.
The end of video stores, then the end of Blockbuster.

Life is change. We adapt or we don’t. The end of movie theaters is a big one, at least for those of us who grew up in them. Yet, driving across the country as I am now, I see the multiplex here or there and it already looks like a relic of the past. Those days are over. They are just over.

As I’ve been writing here for a long time — into the void since no one listens to me — bad movies, a crippled industry, the Great Awokening is what hastened the end. Warner Bros. is just cashing out on a high note. Maybe these movies they released this past year was all just a big tease. Original films with big stars that made money to try to bolster the brand before selling out. I don’t know enough about the industry to make that call. But I wouldn’t be surprised.

Hollywood and the Oscars have seemed like they want to serve both the progressive activist ruling class and somehow still serve audiences. But that was never going to happen, especially if One Battle After Another is their rallying cry. That is just a sad lament for how Hollywood sees this country and its place in it. They seemed to see themselves as the oppressed underclass instead of what they really are.

So, no, I don’t think the merger will impact this film’s chances one bit. This goes deeper for many of them than just a movie. Think of it like the “Moonlight Effect.” If you can’t win the election against Trump then by god, your Best Picture winner will send that message.

The problem is that everyone in Hollywood knows two things. 1) This is a town ruled by silence and fear. 2) Everyone wants a gig at Netflix. Even Ricky Gervais, cynic that he is, “liked” the Instagram post from Netflix.

His show is hosted there. Filmmakers get deals there. Some dude has a podcast there. If they “like” you, you can get hired by them. If they don’t like you, they have the power to ghost you — as they’ve done with me. If they were still buying ads or if I still had a deal with Netflix I would probably shut up too.

This is why the problem went on for so long and wasn’t getting solved. People are too afraid to talk about what’s happened to Hollywood and American culture in the past ten years or so, as Hollywood became one with the Democrats and part of the ruling class in America, a place they were never meant to be. Now, they had no stories to tell and seemed only to want to punish their audiences for wanting what Hollywood had given all of us for so many years.

Worse, they seem to detest their own ticket buyers. Well, none of that will matter inside the Costco of Content.  Netflix will be fine. The WB will be fine.  One Battle will probably win and all of them will leap to their feet in a teary standing ovation. Can’t you just see it? Jamie Lee Curtis, Patricia Arquette, Ben Stiller, Jane Fonda, etc.

Might some of them decide that now isn’t the time to reward Warner Bros for cashing out and giving up the ship? I don’t know, probably not. That takes down Sinners, too, if so. I remember when Orion was going under (yes, I’m that old) and The Silence of the Lambs won Best Picture. It was a shame to see such a successful movie studio collapse — we’ve seen many come and go. But that wouldn’t slow down what was the best film of the year.

Of course, The Silence of the Lambs was made for just $19 million, and it turned a profit, earning $130 million. No one in Hollywood seemed to really care that One Battle only made $70 million. It is itself the smoking gun for why Hollywood is in the state it’s in. They rationalize, they lie, they pretend things aren’t as they are and they feel comfortable tucked away inside their bubble. And so it goes.

Meanwhile, this story just broke:

Declining ratings, by the way, like the box office, are because the industry abandoned the entire country, sneered at them, lectured them, demonized them, and then expected them to be still interested. That’s not the Academy’s fault. They’ve been trying. It is the state of the industry and that is that.

The Golden Globes will announce their nominees on Monday. You can enter our contest here. And check out the Leaderboard here.

We will be posting our Golden Globes predictions, plus No Guts No Glory, over the weekend.

Before we get to that, let’s take a quick look at how our Best Picture race is coming together: The Golden Globes typically have about 6 or 7 of these, sometimes more. We’re dealing with a whole new set of Globes after they were canceled and rebuilt – all international, and many of them newbies. We’ve only seen their picks for a few years now, not long. Since 2022, this is how it matched up:

These show a fairly decent match-up with the rest of the voters, more or less, give or take. They seem to be more inclined to go for Sentimental Value than the NBR or Critics’ Choice, maybe?  They did pick Avatar: The Way of Water, so it’s possible they go that way too. It did end up making its way to the Best Picture race, but it feels sort of touch-and-go there, as it does with Wicked: For Good.

But a consensus is emerging and it looks like this:

Locked:
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Bugonia

Then three from this list:
Train Dreams
Wicked for Good
Sentimental Value
It Was Just An Accident

So the question then becomes, does Netflix get punished for the merger, and will that impact the three films aimed at the race: Jay Kelly, Train Dreams, and Frankenstein? I don’t know if voters can mobilize themselves enough to make something like that happen. I think they vote for what they like, and that is that. We just don’t know how things will ultimately shake out. The Globes might push in a couple of titles that aren’t here, like The Secret Agent, for instance. But for now, pre-Globes, that is how I think Best Picture looks.

Here are my predictions for this week, though they will likely change after the Golden Globes announce:

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Frankenstein
6. Sentimental Value
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. Jay Kelly
10. Avatar: Fire and Ash

(Alt: Wicked: For Good, It Was Just An Accident)

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler, Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
4. Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
5. Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Alts: Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident, Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value, James Cameron, Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Best Actor
Timothée Chalament, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
George Clooney, Jay Kelly
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Alt. Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent

Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Ariana Grande, Wicked for Good
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly
Alt. Sean Penn, One Battle After Another

Original Screenplay
Sinners
Marty Supreme
It Was Just An Accident
Jay Kelly
Sentimental Value
Alt. Eddington

Adapted Screenplay
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Alt. No Other Choice

Casting
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
Jay Kelly
Marty Supreme

International Feature
No Other Choice
Sentimental Value
The Secret Agent
Sirat
The Voice of Hind Rajab

Editing
One Battle After Another
Marty Supreme
Sinners
Frankenstein
Hamnet

Cinematography
Frankenstein
One Battle After Another
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Sinners
Hamnet

Production Design
Frankenstein
Hamnet
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Sinners
Wicked: For Good

Costume
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Marty Supreme

Score
Sinners
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
F1

Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
The Smashing Machine
Christy
Wicked: For Good
Sinners

Sound
Sinners
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Wicked: For Good
One Battle After Another

I have to put One Battle in the top spot as much as I wish that weren’t the outcome. This industry becomes less and less interesting to me and now, in the 26th year I’m having a hard time finding any reason to care. I wish Ryan Coogler and Sinners would win. I would love to see Hamnet win. I think Sean Penn gave the worst performance of the year and it crushes me that Benicio Del Toro is winning for phoning it in while Paul Mescal gave such a brilliant performance as Shakespeare in Hamnet. But I don’t run the world or the Oscars. I wish I did. And that’s all I know for now.

Have a nice weekend.