2026 Oscar Predictions: DiCaprio vs. Chalamet in Best Actor Showdown

Marty Supreme is hitting theaters this weekend, along with The Housemaid. Looks like Marty Supreme is selling out, breaking records already in limited release:

For many months, the Best Actor race had finally been going to bring Chalamet the win, so it was decided. There was a shift in the buzzmeter, however, because of a few interviews with Chalamet that appeared online. Does that matter? Probably not. If Marty Supreme becomes a hit (in so much as Oscar movies can become hits) its one big win might be Chalamet. The only thing to keep in mind is how the new Academy votes.

Leonardo DiCaprio gives the best performance in One Battle After Another and if the Academy love the movie as much as the critics do and they give it all the top awards, it seems likely that it will be DiCaprio and not Chalamet for the prize. Then again, it could be neither of them and someone else.

In the preferential ballot era, Best Actor has only matched three times:

Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Jean Michel DuJardin, The Artist
Cillian Murphy, Oppenheimer

You’ll notice the gap between the Artist and Oppenheimer, which shows you how the Academy has changed because all of those years, they split Best Actor and Best Picture. Now, for whatever reason, we haven’t been seeing splits.

Best Picture has brought in at least one acting win since the Academy since 2020.

2024-Anora- Mikey Madison
2023-Oppenheimer – Cillian Murphy
2022-Everything Everywhere All At Once — Michelle Yeoh, Ke Huy Kwan and Jamie Lee Curtis
2021-CODA – Troy Kotsur
2020-Nomadland – Frances McDormand

Then we get to Parasite, which had no acting nominations but still won a surprising number of Oscars, Picture, Director, and Screenplay.

Before that, acting wins were a bit hit-or-miss.

2018–Green Book, Supporting
2017-The Shape of Water
2016–Moonlight,  Supporting
2015–Spotlight
2014–Birdman
2013–12 Years a Slave, Supporting
2012–Argo
2011–The Artist, Actor
2010–The King’s Speech, Actor
2009–The Hurt Locker
2008–Slumdog Millionaire
2007–No Country for Old Men, Supporting
2006–The Departed
2005–Crash
2004–Million Dollar Baby, Actress, Supporting
2003–Return of the King
2002–Chicago, Supporting
2001–A Beautiful Mind, Supporting
2000-Gladiator, Actor

For there to be four leading wins in such a short time recently seems to indicate that Best Actor could go with Best Picture if One Battle After Another wins. If Hamnet wins, it could follow Best Actress. Then again, Benicio Del Toro could be the winner for One Battle, freeing up Best Actor to go to Chalamet.

Marty Supreme will be nominated for Best Picture. It is easily one of the year’s standouts. The question is whether the Academy is ready to give Timothée an Oscar. We remember those old rules about pretty boys. The Academy liked to give Oscars to men who “ugly themselves up” or at least are past the pretty boy stage. At least, that’s how it used to be. Things have changed, and they’ve changed dramatically. We’re seeing record-breaking growth due to the 3,000 new members added to diversify membership. These voters don’t hold by the old rules.

For instance, when Anora won last year, she won Original Screenplay and Editing. For one person, Sean Baker, to win all of those awards is unheard of. They never used to give Editing or Original Screenplay to the sole winner, who also won Best Picture and Best Director. Now, they do.

So it is just a matter of what movie they like the best. The results are probably going to be surprising from here on out. The more you like the movie, the more likely you are to do better if the Academy also likes it. We mostly already know how this year will turn out. Will there be any surprises? It’s hard to say at the moment.

How often is Best Actor tied to Best Picture? The winner has been in a Best Picture contender every year except Jeff Bridges in 2009 and Brendan Fraser in 2022. Usually, though, it tracks. This year, it’s looking like:

Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams vs. George Clooney, Jay Kelly vs. Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon

I think that’s the play. Netflix will have to decide between its two contenders. Ethan Hawke could get in without a Best Picture nomination, and if so, that makes it more challenging to win that award.

Will the Globes give us any clues? They might. In general, the Best Actor winner does not come from Musical/Comedy but from Drama. Every so often, they do pull from the other category, as with Jean DuJardin in The Artist and Rami Malek from Bohemian Rhapsody, but that was Old Globe. We don’t know what the New Golden Globe members will do for these categories.

What we do know is that Timothée Chalamet and Leonardo DiCaprio are facing off in the musical/comedy category, which could open the door for someone to win Drama. Because there are so many Brazilian voters, so the story goes, Wagner Moura is supposed to be the de facto winner from the drama category, but what if it’s not him? What if it’s, say, Michael B. Jordan from Sinners? Does that change the game at all? Not sure.

20/26 wins or thereabouts have also won the Golden Globes since 2000. That might not make a difference, considering the entire voting body is different now. And already, since 2020, we’ve seen two years where the Globes winner did not go on to win the Oscar.

Anyway, who knows? We’re still in the early stages. It might turn out to be Chalamet when all is said and done because it is his confidence and ambition that presented the basis for Marty Supreme. If they like the movie, they might want to reward him for inspiring it.

Here are my predictions for this week.

Best Picture

One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein
Sentimental Value
Bugonia
Wicked for Good
Train Dreams
It Was Just an Accident

Alt: Jay Kelly, The Secret Agent, No Other Choice

Best Director

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Alts: Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value, Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Alt. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good, Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Actor
Timothée Chalament, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Alt. George Clooney, Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Supporting Actress
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Ariana Grande, Wicked for Good
Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners

Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Alt. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Original Screenplay
Sinners
Marty Supreme
It Was Just An Accident
Jay Kelly
Sentimental Value
Alt. Eddington

Adapted Screenplay
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Alt. No Other Choice

Casting
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein

International Feature
It Was Just an Accident
The Secret Agent
No Other Choice
Sentimental Value
Sirat

Editing
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Frankenstein
Hamnet

Cinematography
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
Train Dreams
Hamnet

Production Design
Frankenstein
Sinners
Hamnet
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Wicked: For Good

Costume
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Marty Supreme

Score
Sinners
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
F1

Song
“The Girl In The Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash
“Drive” from F1
“Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
Nuremberg
Sinners
Wicked: For Good

Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Sinners
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Wicked: For Good

Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good

International Feature
Norway, Sentimental Value
Spain, Sirât
Brazil, The Secret Agent
France, It Was Just an Accident
South Korea, No Other Choice

Documentary Feature
The Perfect Neighbor
The Alabama Solution
Cover-Up
My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow
Mr. Nobody against Putin