2026 Oscar Predictions: How to Derail a Frontrunner

It’s hard to tell what is real anymore.  We know when we are reading a story in the trades it is likely to be about 60% true. The other 40% is everything people are too afraid to say. Yes, the people who have now decided they’re the ones fighting for free speech have been participating in a culture of silence and a climate of fear. We all know what we can’t say and why we can’t say it. We can’t depart from the official groupthink, or we’ll be booted out of utopia. But beyond that, we can’t criticize anything that functions as propaganda for the ruling class (like Jimmy Kimmel). So there is no failing for, say, a movie like Elio, which bombed. It doesn’t bomb inside the bubble because money and box office don’t matter. If half the country doesn’t matter, then box office and ratings certainly don’t matter.

Much was made of the bad ratings for Trump’s Kennedy Center Honors, for instance, or the Bari Weiss town hall with Erik Kirk. That, some inside utopians say, is proof that the American majority hasn’t been left behind, as if they are a monolith. But regardless, whatever is left of the audience is shrinking for whatever reason. You can tell yourselves anything you want, and it will be one of the reasons, among many, that audiences and viewers have tuned out.

Thanks to Marty Supreme, Avatar: Fire and Ash, and The Housemaid, the Christmas Day box office was the best “post-COVID,” Deadline reports. 

Here is the list from Box Office Mojo, and you can see where it was before COVID:

So it’s not all bad news. People did turn out to see these movies, maybe just not in the gangbusters way they once did. Hope springs eternal.

There is a narrative forming here about Timothée Chalamet, and that could help build momentum for him to win Best Actor anyway, even if the momentum for One Battle still seems to point to Leo DiCaprio winning his second instead of Chalamet winning a first. After this weekend’s box office showing and the reaction I’m seeing around, there’s more than a good chance the early predictions for Best Actor were right after all, and that it’s Timmy’s to lose.

Pete Hammond has written a Notes on a Season which says:

It’s an interesting piece but as you can see by the image above, it somehow factors in Wicked: For Good as one of the strongest players right now. And honestly, we’re in the “lucky to be nominated” phase. I think it will be, if the shortlists are any indication, but plenty of pundits have it out. At any rate, it is not on par with One Battle, Sinners or Hamnet, our mighty three frontrunners. I think the fourth in that image would be Marty Supreme, not Wicked: For Good.

Hammond brings up other films that are potentially in play, like Frankenstein, but the thrust of the piece is that many in Hollywood also see the race as “over,” not necessarily because they love the film but because it’s finally “time” to award no, not Ryan Coogler would would make Oscar history as the first Black director to win in, wait for it, 98 years of Oscar history. But Paul Thomas Anderson whose ship has apparently come in.

What I found interesting about Hammond’s piece is that it ends by showing how many celebrities were out in force pulling for Sinners. That tells me that there’s something in the air. Maybe it isn’t coming from super high-profile types but there are actors and directors out there who undoubtedly realize the weight of this moment, with a film like Sinners even being in the conversation at all, let alone as the most successful movie and one that would make history.

Among those hosting Sinners events were Spike Jonze, Christopher Nolan, Lupita Nyong’o, Questlove, Viola Davis, Austin Butler, Kenneth Branagh, Destin Daniel Cretton, Idris Elba, Ben Stiller, Denzel Washington and Barry Jenkins.

Viola Davis (above) moderated a SAG-AFTRA Foundation Q&A for Sinners with voters on December 14 at the Meryl Streep Center for the Performing Arts, with Jordan and co-star Wunmi Mosaku plus casting director Francine Maisler.

Austin Butler (below) hosted an AMPAS tastemaker event for Sinners at Soho House co-hosted by WME on December 8. Preceding the screening was a Q&A moderated by director Chris Columbus with director-writer-producer Coogler, Jordan and Maisler. Producer Zinzi Coogler was also in attendance.

The question is how things will work out on a preferential ballot. Is it all or nothing? Are we over-estimating One Battle or do we just need filler to make content while we wait for the end of the sentence? It’s hard to tell at this stage. It’s easier to predict how the Critics Choice and the Golden Globes will go than it is once get to the bigger guilds. Let’s go through the numbers:

Golden Globes — roughly 300 members.
Critics’ Choice — roughly 600 members.
Directors Guild — roughly 20,000 members.
Producers Guild — Roughly 8,000 members.
Screen Actors Guild — Roughly 160,000 members.
Academy — Roughly 10,000 members.

In general, when there is a derailment, we see it from the Golden Globes to the big guilds. Like:

The Social Network won the Golden Globe, then lost the PGA/DGA Awards.
Boyhood won the Globe, then lost the PGA/DGA.

There are even weirder ones, with 1917 winning the Globe, the DGA, and the PGA, and Parasite taking the Oscar. Or La La Land winning the Globe, the PGA, and the DGA, then losing the Oscar to Moonlight. In both cases, there was a grassroots effort to derail the frontrunner and push a different film toward the win. With Moonlight and Parasite, high-profile Academy members were pushing for voters to pick the underdog.

What they’re really debating, however, is what movie they want to represent them. What makes them feel seen? Moonlight made them look how they wanted to look in 2016. Parasite made them look the way they wanted in 2019. But that was the old Academy, not the new Academy, with 3,000 new voting members who behave very differently from the Academy members we thought we knew.

In a case like this, I would say they would pick the movie they liked best. But which movie is that? How to even measure it? One Battle After Another is not just well-liked; it also probably speaks for the industry, and its win shows how they want to be seen. They can send the message that politics matters more than anything else, even box-office success.

The DGA goes first.

If the PGA went first, as has been the case in the past, Sinners could catch an early wave. But the DGA goes first, and the chances are very high that they pick Paul Thomas Anderson there. That will then set off a cascading effect that gives the film every win from then on.

Here is the calendar again:

Critics Choice — January 4th
Golden Globes — January 11th
DGA Awards — February 7th
Producers Guild Awards — February 28th
The SAG Awards — March 1st

Five days after the SAG Awards, the Academy voting ends, which means whatever happens at SAG will impact voting. And by the way, I can’t bring myself to call them the “Actor Awards.”

I can see a scenario in which the DGA hands it to PTA, and then there is a slight vibe shift: another movie wins the PGA, then the SAG, and then the Oscar. Whether that could be Sinners or Hamnet, or something else, it’s hard to say.

The only thing that feels new to me is that Marty Supreme hit better than I thought it would, and it might have shifted the Best Actor race back to Chalamet. So here are my predictions for this week.

Best Picture
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein
Sentimental Value
Bugonia
Wicked for Good
Train Dreams
It Was Just an Accident

Alt: Jay Kelly, The Secret Agent, No Other Choice

Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just an Accident

Alts: Yorgos Lanthimos, Bugonia; Joachim Trier, Sentimental Value, Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

Best Actress
Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Emma Stone, Bugonia
Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Chase Infiniti, One Battle After Another

Alt. Cynthia Erivo, Wicked: For Good, Amanda Seyfried, The Testament of Ann Lee

Best Actor
Timothée Chalament, Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Wagner Moura, The Secret Agent
Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
Alt. George Clooney, Jay Kelly, Joel Edgerton, Train Dreams

Supporting Actress
Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Amy Madigan, Weapons
Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Ariana Grande, Wicked for Good
Gwyneth Paltrow, Marty Supreme

Supporting Actor
Benicio Del Toro, One Battle After Another
Paul Mescal, Hamnet
Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein
Alt. Adam Sandler, Jay Kelly

Original Screenplay
Sinners
Marty Supreme
It Was Just An Accident
Jay Kelly
Sentimental Value
Alt. Eddington

Adapted Screenplay
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Train Dreams
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Alt. No Other Choice

Casting
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Frankenstein

Editing
Marty Supreme
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Frankenstein
Hamnet

Cinematography
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
Train Dreams
Hamnet

Production Design
Frankenstein
Sinners
Hamnet
Avatar: Fire and Ash
Wicked: For Good

Costume
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good
Hamnet
Marty Supreme

Score
Sinners
Hamnet
One Battle After Another
Frankenstein
F1

Song
“I Lied To You” from “Sinners”
“The Girl In The Bubble” from Wicked: For Good
“Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
“Dream As One” from Avatar: Fire and Ash
“Drive” from F1
Alt. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless

Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein
Marty Supreme
Nuremberg
Sinners
Wicked: For Good

Sound
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Sinners
Springsteen: Deliver Me from Nowhere
Wicked: For Good

Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash
F1
Frankenstein
Sinners
Wicked: For Good

International Feature
Norway, Sentimental Value
Spain, Sirât
Brazil, The Secret Agent
France, It Was Just an Accident
South Korea, No Other Choice

Documentary Feature
The Perfect Neighbor
The Alabama Solution
Cover-Up
My Undesirable Friends: Part 1 – Last Air in Moscow
Mr. Nobody against Putin