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Award season in the coming days:
Jan 4th — Critics’ Choice Awards
Jan 7th — SAG noms
Jan 9th – Producers Guild
Jan 11th — Golden Globes
Jan 22nd — Oscar noms
Jan 27th — BAFTA noms
Feb 1st — Grammys
Feb 22nd — BAFTA Awards
Mar 1st — SAG Awards
Mar 15th — Oscars
We thought we’d get ahead of the big announcements with our predictions, especially since tomorrow will be the Critics Choice Awards.
First up, the SAG Awards (no, I’m not ready to call them the Actor Awards, partly because they’re not only actors. It’s SAG/AFTRA, and so why sideline the AFTRA people?).
There is an “alphabet theory” we will be trying out wherein people whose names are at the top of the on the alphabet are more likely to get nominated. So some people think that will be true with the SAG Awards. I have no idea. What I do know is that they randomly select 2,000 people, so you never know what you’re going to get with the nominating committee. Thus, it’s nearly impossible to use stats.
The pickings are so slim this year, however, that it shouldn’t be that hard to predict any awards. All we need to know is how international voters will go. The more international they go, the harder they will be to predict because there are so many offerings this year as the American film side has been so weak.
SAG, like the Golden Globes, also nominates the television side, so keep that in mind if there are any potential double nominees this year and/or whether some voters might be more favorable to movie people in TV and TV people in movies.
Here are our predictions.
For the PGA, they usually have at least two that match Critics’ Choice. Since the preferential ballot era, there has been only one year when they went 10/10. So you should probably think about minus two. So here are the Critics’ Choice 10:
Bugonia (Focus Features)
Frankenstein (Netflix)
Hamnet (Focus Features)
Jay Kelly (Netflix)
Marty Supreme (A24)
One Battle After Another (Warner Bros.)
Sentimental Value (Neon)
Sinners (Warner Bros.)
Train Dreams (Netflix)
Wicked: For Good (Universal Pictures)
You’d have to decide which of these won’t make it into PGA or if it will match 10/10. It does on rare occasions, it just hasn’t since 2021. So last year and the year before, two films landed at Globes that skipped Critics Choice and went to PGA.
Zone of Interest/Anatomy of a Fall and A Real Pain and September 5th (didn’t make it into Best Picture).
Here are the Globes and Critics Choice this year:
Somewhere in here will be the way the PGA goes and honestly, I have no idea. We see the movies to the Left and it’s hard to know. Many would assume It Was Just An Accident gets in but as I said, we don’t know how International they will go or if it won’t be any of these movies and it will be something not on these lists, like Avatar: Fire and Ash or Weapons or F1. Tough call there. Here are ours.
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