DGA Preview and Predictions

If we can survive this week, we can survive anything. We’ve heard from the critics who have unanimously, to an unprecedented degree, anointed Paul Thomas Anderson and One Battle After Another. There does not seem to be any path out of it, no split vote, no other options – just a steady (death) march toward the last gasp of an Oscar season no one will even remember a year from now. Well, I’ll remember it. I’ll never forget it and will tell all once it’s done.

Here is the calendar for this next part:

Jan. 7 — Actor Awards presented by SAG-AFTRA Nominations Announcement
Jan. 7 — Art Directors Guild (ADG) Nominations Announcement
Jan. 7 — Directors Guild of America (DGA) Nominations Announcement for Television, Commercial, and Documentary Film

Jan. 8 — Directors Guild of America (DGA) Nominations Announcement for Film
Jan. 8 — American Society of Cinematographers (ASC) Nominations Announcement
Jan. 8 — Casting Society Awards (CSA) Film Nominations Announcement
Jan. 8 — NAACP Image Awards Nominations Announcement
Jan. 8 — Cinema Eye Honors

Jan. 9 — American Film Institute (AFI) Awards Ceremony
Jan. 9 — Producers Guild of America (PGA) Nominations Announcement for Film and Television (major categories)
Jan. 9 — British Academy Film Awards (BAFTA) Longlists Announcement
Jan. 9 — Astra Awards (Hollywood Creative Alliance) Winners Ceremony

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There is no reason to assume Paul Thomas Anderson will not collect his first DGA award. It’s hard to root against the guy, considering his long career. I just wish he wasn’t winning for oppression COSPLAY. But he’s a great director, and it’s only the Oscars. What burns is how the critics turned on certain movies, like Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet and, especially, Ryan Coogler’s Sinners. How ridiculous do they look, the David Fears and the other high-minded critics, not even putting it on their best of list? They look disconnected from both the real world and the economics of Hollywood.

Think of it: the movie that cost less and made more is losing to the most expensive film since Titanic to win. It’s not even close. That comes in a year when China beat the US at the global box office for only the second time. The first was when the COVID pandemic crushed the industry. The voting bodies—critics, guilds—don’t care about that. They don’t have to care. They see movies for free, and they seem driven by a newfound religion that One Battle embodies perfectly. So for them, it’s like Everything Everywhere All At Once – it’s that perfect thing showing up. It’s Michelangelo’s Sistine Chapel.

The critics also seemed to have missed what Sinners is really about. I saw one of the film bros on X call it “a vampire movie.” That is only how you see if you are not very smart. Sorry, no offense. Or how about just lazy? If you know about Robert Johnson and the other blues greats, or the history of the blues, then you see what Sinners is really about. But you have to lean in. You have to look deeper. Or not.

The only possible alternative to this would be if Sinners somehow won the Producers Guild, leaving us with yet another split-vote scenario. Remember, two films that won Best Picture were directed by Black directors but their directors did not win: 12 Years a Slave and Moonlight. Moreover, they’ve designated the screenplay category for the Black director they’re not quite ready to anoint – Precious, Get Out, BlackKkKlansmen, American Fiction. I didn’t make these rules. They did with their inclusivity mandates and their woke casting and their agonizing virtue signaling. And yet, when it gets down to it, it was never real power. It was temporary.

So that’s it. I know I can’t keep banging this gong. The race is all but over. Now we have to fill in the spaces. I don’t want Hollywood and the Oscars to be “woke” anymore (obeying the sensibilities of white liberals, mostly women), but they already are and will be for a long time. That’s baked into the cake. It’s the flea circus. Temporary power that protects the people at the top. So, IMO, put your money where your mouth is or take a seat. You’re not doing anyone any favors by doing them favors.

When all is said and done, these voters will pat themselves on the back for their “diversity” if Best Director at the Oscars looks like this:

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Jafar Panahi, It Was Just An Accident
Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein

Looks quite diverse, no? I’m not even gonna say it. Gonna zip my lips.

Okay, so we know the DGA and Oscar director are a mismatch. We have to figure out how the DGA with 18,000 voting members will vote vs. how the Oscar directors branch with much less, as 600-700 will vote. We’re maybe talking about one or two here.

I would imagine the general consensus for the DGA is this:

Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Guillermo Del Toro, Frankenstein
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme

And all of us here are predicting these same five.

If I had a No Guts, No Glory I would put Yorgos Lanthimos in for Bugonia as the fifth slot.
Scott Kernen would put in either Jafar Panahi for It Was Just an Accident or Joachim Trier for Sentimental Value.

The thing about the DGA (see below) is that it leans more into Best Picture than Best Director. So if you feel strongly about a Best Picture contender (like top five) it would show up on DGA. Take a look at these charts to see what got into DGA that wasn’t on Critics Choice OR Globes.

So the question is how many of the Critics Choice SIX will get into DGA. Usually four, sometimes five.

For First Time Director we probably differ.

Sasha Stone’s picks:
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Harris Dickinson, Urchin
Harry Lighton, Pillion
Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Eleanor the Great, Scarlett Johansson

Scott Kernen’s picks:
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Harris Dickinson, Urchin
Harry Lighton, Pillion
Charlie Polinger, The Plague
Akinola Davies Jr, My Father’s Shadow

Jeremy Jentzen’s picks:

Eva Victor, Sorry Baby
Harris Dickinson, Urchin
Mary Bronstein, If I Had Legs
Scarlett Johansson, Eleanor the Great
Harry Lighton, Pillion 

We have already posted our PGA and SAG predictions