Best Picture
What began as a competitive field with five films landing both SAG Ensemble and DGA nods has narrowed to essentially a two-horse race. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners leads with a record-breaking 16 nominations, while Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another follows closely with 13. Sinners has built real passion as an underdog with a strong shot at the win, but One Battle After Another shows no real weakness—having taken the Golden Globes for Picture, Director, and Screenplay (plus Supporting Actress), the Critics Choice for Picture, Director, and Screenplay, the USC Scripter, and numerous other critic prizes. It’s still the film to beat, with Warner Bros.’ other contender hot on its heels.
A Picture/Director split is possible in theory, but recent Academy trends favor matching the two unless the Picture winner lacks a Director nod. Given how central both PTA’s and Coogler’s visions are to their films, it’s likely one takes both or the other does.
Frontrunner: One Battle After Another
Challenger: Sinners
Best Director
This category will hinge heavily on the DGA outcome this weekend (preview below). It’s tough to bet against Paul Thomas Anderson, whose “it’s his time” narrative—coupled with the ambition of One Battle After Another—has dominated the season. He’s poised to win regardless of Picture, but Ryan Coogler stands as a clear #2 with serious guild support (including from the DGA president) and his own strong narrative. Without PTA in the mix, Coogler would likely take it, but the industry’s love for Anderson and his film makes an upset a tall order—unless Sinners shows massive Best Picture momentum or DGA delivers a shock.
Frontrunner: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Challenger: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Best Actor
Talk of controversy around Josh Safdie’s Marty Supreme (and the filmmaker) has been loud, but it hasn’t dented Timothée Chalamet’s standing in precursors or broader conversation—much like how Zoe Saldaña swept for the controversial Emilia Pérez. Chalamet benefits from a beloved film and his own widespread appeal. That said, he faces a stacked field: Leonardo DiCaprio in One Battle After Another, Michael B. Jordan in Sinners, Wagner Moura in The Secret Agent, and Ethan Hawke in Blue Moon. SAG will be pivotal—no one’s won back-to-back recently, but precedents can break.
Frontrunner: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Challengers: Any of the other four
Best Actress
This feels like a lock for a sweep. From its Telluride premiere, Jessie Buckley in Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet has been the undisputed frontrunner—no real debate. Early chatter about Rose Byrne in If I Had Legs I’d Kick You as an alternative fizzled, especially as a lone nominee in a divisive film. Buckley’s performance is the emotional core of Hamnet, making this the ideal spot to honor Zhao’s work even if the film wins little else.
Frontrunner: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Challenger: Rose Byrne, If I Had Legs I’d Kick You or Kate Hudson, Song Sung Blue
Best Supporting Actor
Precursors have been all over the map here—anyone could plausibly win. Still, Stellan Skarsgård in Joachim Trier’s Sentimental Value feels like the one to beat: he took the Golden Globe, and the film has broad Academy love (near-max nominations across categories, four acting nods despite missing SAG). This could be the place to reward Sentimental Valueabove the line and give a veteran an overdue win. That said, Delroy Lindo in Sinners (no precursors yet) could pull off a true upset, or one of the One Battle supporting players could surge.
Frontrunner: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Challengers: Any of the other four
Best Supporting Actress
What once looked wide open now points clearly to Teyana Taylor in One Battle After Another. She’s the only one to hit every major precursor and won the Golden Globe—making her the likely acting win for PTA’s film unless something wild happens. Amy Madigan (Critics Choice winner) is a longshot as a lone nominee who missed BAFTA. BAFTA upsets could come from Wunmi Mosaku (Sinners) or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (Sentimental Value), but Taylor has the edge from here.
Frontrunner: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Challengers: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Best Original Screenplay
Sinners feels like the spot to honor Coogler’s achievement, especially with its Best Picture strength and likely WGA win. Joachim Trier and Eskil Vogt’s Sentimental Value is the main alternative, but it’s a longshot without a BAFTA breakthrough.
Frontrunner: Sinners
Challenger: Sentimental Value
Best Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another has dominated here (CCA, Golden Globe, USC Scripter), positioning it as PTA’s near-certain win heading into the night. Chloé Zhao and Maggie O’Farrell’s Hamnet is the alternative, but it needs a BAFTA upset to challenge.
Frontrunner: One Battle After Another
Challenger: Hamnet
Best Casting
Too early for a firm call without more precursors, but it’s likely between Sinners and One Battle After Another. SAG Ensemble could provide a big clue. Sinners might get the nod as a way to reward it above the line, but One Battle After Another’s ensemble is strong too.
Frontrunners: Sinners and One Battle After Another
Challengers: Any of the other three
DGA Preview
Theatrical Feature Film nominees:
Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler, Sinners
Guillermo del Toro, Frankenstein
Josh Safdie, Marty Supreme
Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Coogler is a formidable contender with real guild backing, but the overwhelming goodwill toward PTA and his film makes it hard to go against him. Both are masterful directorial achievements, but my lean is PTA.
Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Challenger: Ryan Coogler, Sinners
First Time Theatrical Film nominees:
Hasan Hadi, The President’s Cake
Harry Lighton, Pillion
Charlie Polinger, The Plague
Alex Russell, Lurker
Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Eva Victor feels like the clear favorite for Sorry, Baby, with Harry Lighton a solid runner-up for Pillion.
Prediction: Eva Victor, Sorry, Baby
Challenger: Harry Lighton, Pillion
Documentary nominees: (hardest to correlate with Oscars)
Mstyslav Chernov, 2000 Meters to Andriivk
Geeta Gandbhir, The Perfect Neighbor
Mohammadreza Eyni, Sara Khaki, Eyni Sara Khaki, and Mohammad Reza Eyni, Cutting Through Rocks
Elizabeth Lo, Mistress Dispeller
Mark Obenhaus and Laura Poitras, Cover-Up
Geeta Gandbhir’s The Perfect Neighbor seems safest as the frontrunner, but someone outside the Oscar field could surprise.
Prediction: Geeta Gandbhir, The Perfect Neighbor
Challenger: Any of the other four
Current Oscar Predictions (unchanged as we await these precursors)
Best Picture
One Battle After Another
Sinners
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
Sentimental Value
Frankenstein
Bugonia
Train Dreams
The Secret Agent
F1
Best Director
Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
Ryan Coogler – Sinners
Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme
Best Actress
Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
Emma Stone – Bugonia
Best Actor
Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
Best Supporting Actress
Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
Amy Madigan – Weapons
Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value
Best Supporting Actor
Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
Delroy Lindo – Sinners
Best Original Screenplay
Sinners
Sentimental Value
Marty Supreme
It Was Just An Accident
Blue Moon
Best Adapted Screenplay
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Train Dreams
Bugonia
Frankenstein
Best Casting
Sinners
One Battle After Another
Hamnet
Marty Supreme
The Secret Agent
(And the rest of the categories follow similar lines as in your original—Sinners strong in tech/score/song, Frankenstein in design/makeup, etc.)
It’s truly the calm before the storm right now. These next couple of weeks—starting with DGA—will tell us a lot. Stay tuned.
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