Nextgen OscarWatcher: Parsing the DGA and the Remaining 15 Categories

Despite a night full of upsets—including Charlie Polinger taking home First-Time Theatrical Feature for The Plague and Mstyslav Chernov winning Documentary Feature for 2000 Meters to Andriivka—the outcome many expected ultimately prevailed: Paul Thomas Anderson claimed the Directors Guild prize for feature film with One Battle After Another.

One could call it predictable, arguing that—regardless of the Best Picture race—this win merely solidifies the directing category, where the beloved PTA is poised to finally claim his overdue Oscar. But the significance runs deeper. Both Sinners and One Battle After Another stand as major directorial achievements, and so far, critics’ groups and major awards bodies have shown limited splits: if one film wins Picture, it tends to take Director too. Layer on Adapted Screenplay (where One Battle remains undefeated), a probable Supporting Actress victory, potential wins in Editing, Supporting Actor, and now Cinematography, and you have the makings of another dominant Oscar sweep—one that’s become increasingly common in the post-COVID era.

The PGA and SAG (or the “Actor Awards,” as some call it) are still to come. Unless box-office momentum shifts against it, One Battle After Another looks likely to take PGA. Sinners could claim SAG’s ensemble prize, but it’s far from impossible for it to miss there too. Perhaps this is an overreaction—or maybe it’s simply stating the obvious. We’ll know more in two weeks with BAFTA, and in the following weekends with the remaining major guilds. For now, PTA’s film sits firmly in the driver’s seat and could stay there through the end of the season.

The Remaining 15
Last week focused on the top nine categories; now let’s examine the other 15 and where the momentum lies.

Best Animated Feature
One of the easiest calls this year: KPop Demon Hunters hasn’t missed anywhere and—despite BAFTA ineligibility—should take PGA while adding a likely Original Song win down the line. The main alternative is Zootopia 2 (likely prevailing at BAFTA as Zootropolis 2), but without facing KPop head-on, it’s effectively out of the race.
Frontrunner: KPop Demon Hunters
Challengers: Zootopia 2 and Little Amélie or the Character of Rain

Best Documentary Feature
Despite the DGA loss last night, The Perfect Neighbor appears set to cruise to victory—especially since 2000 Meters to Andriivka isn’t even Oscar-nominated. Barring a true surprise on Oscar night, this feels like the frontrunner that pulled off the improbable: getting nominated and going all the way.
Frontrunner: The Perfect Neighbor
Challengers: Any of the four others

Best International Feature
What began as a wide-open race has narrowed to two: Norway’s Sentimental Value and Brazil’s The Secret Agent. Last year’s results showed that nomination counts and precursor wins don’t always matter if passion is strong enough—but don’t expect a repeat here. Brazil has genuine love for The Secret Agent, yet Sentimental Value is uncontroversial, landing in nearly every possible category (including up to four acting nods, minus Casting). That broad support—plus a likely BAFTA win and a probable acting victory for Stellan Skarsgård—gives it the edge in genuine affection and momentum.
Frontrunner: Sentimental Value
Challenger: The Secret Agent

Best Editing
Likely the toughest above-the-line race (outside of Cinematography now), it pits the editing showcase of F1 against Best Picture frontrunner One Battle After Another. F1 could win BAFTA Editing and ACE Drama; One Battle might take ACE Comedy and Best Picture. In recent trends, the BP frontrunner often prevails in a showdown between technical flash and overall prestige—but PGA and other precursors remain key blanks to fill.
Frontrunners: One Battle After Another and F1
Challenger: Sinners

Best Cinematography
Many thought Sinners had this locked, but it’s now competitive: Train Dreams took Critics Choice, One Battle After Anotherclaimed the British Society, with BAFTA and ASC still pending. Sinners hasn’t won a major precursor yet but could still triumph at ASC (or elsewhere), backed by its 16 nominations. Still, One Battle‘s overall strength might carry it across the line.
Frontrunners: Sinners and One Battle After Another
Challenger: Train Dreams

Best Costume Design
An easy frontrunner: Frankenstein has been flawless all season and offers the most visually striking work.
Frontrunner: Frankenstein
Challengers: Any of the four others

Best Production Design
Similar to Costumes: Frankenstein leads comfortably, with little serious challenge expected—though guilds could hint otherwise.
Frontrunner: Frankenstein
Challengers: Any of the four others

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Frankenstein seems locked here too, with scant room for alternatives.
Frontrunner: Frankenstein
Challengers: Any of the four others

Best Sound
With its BP nomination and reputation as the “sound Best Picture contender,” F1 should win decisively. Sinners (as a musical) and One Battle After Another are viable alternatives.
Frontrunner: F1
Challengers: Sinners or One Battle After Another

Best Visual Effects
Avatar: Fire and Ash takes this without question, though F1 and Sinners offer theoretical upsets. But really—who are we kidding?
Frontrunner: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Challengers: Sinners or F1

Best Original Score
Ludwig Göransson’s work on Sinners—fresh off a Grammy and consistent wins—looks destined for AMPAS. A BAFTA win for Greenwood could make a case, but that’s unlikely.
Frontrunner: Sinners
Challenger: One Battle After Another

Best Original Song
“Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters—nominated for Song of the Year and riding high—should prevail, unless Sinnersmounts an extraordinary push.
Frontrunner: “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
Challenger: “I Lied To You” from Sinners

Best Animated Short
Always unpredictable, but gut says Butterfly for its subject matter and distributor; The Girl Who Cried Pearls is right there too. True crapshoot.
Frontrunners: Butterfly and The Girl Who Cried Pearls
Challengers: Any of the three others

Best Documentary Short
All The Empty Rooms holds a slight edge, with a strong case for Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud—but anything could win.
Frontrunners: All The Empty Rooms and Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
Challengers: Any of the three others

Best Live Action Short
Two People Exchanging Saliva leads softly on buzz, but watch for The Singers or literally anyone else.
Frontrunners: Two People Exchanging Saliva and The Singers
Challengers: Any of the three others

Oscar Predictions for Below the Line Categories Overall

Here is the overall ranking akin to last week’s for above the line

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. The Secret Agent
3. It Was Just An Accident
4. Sirât
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. The Alabama Solution
3. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
4. Come See Me In The Good Light
5. Cutting Through Rocks

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
3. Zootopia 2
4. Arco
5. Elio

Best Cinematography

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sentimental Value

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Sinners
5. Marty Supreme

Best Costume Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Kokuho
5. The Ugly Stepsisters

Best Sound

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Frankenstein
5. Sirât

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. The Lost Bus
5. Jurassic World: Rebirth

Best Original Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. Bugonia

Best Original Song

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
4. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!

Best Documentary Short

1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
3. The Devil is Busy
4. Perfectly a Strangeness
5. Children No More: Were and Are Gone

Best Animated Short

1. Butterfly
2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
3. Forevergreen
4. Retirement Plan
5. The Three Sisters

Best Live Action Short

1. Two People Exchanging Saliva
2. The Singers
3. A Friend of Dorothy
4. Butcher’s Stain
5. Jane Austen’s Period Drama

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