You can enter our predictions contest for the BAFTAs here.
Probably the calmest week in award season so far, with not much to discuss outside the Costume Designers Guild and Makeup Artists & Hair Stylists Guild awards, which went to the presumed frontrunners—only solidifying Frankenstein as the likely winner in those categories. It really is the calm before the guild storm, with PGA and SAG coming in two weeks, followed by WGA.
In the midst of all the guilds, though, the British Academy will have its say. While BAFTA wasn’t initially a strong precursor (having little influence on the Oscar race before 2000), since the start of the new century, it’s become a surprisingly reliable one for AMPAS. Certain trends are still problematic—Best Film and Best Picture haven’t lined up in many years outside a few exceptions—but there’s a strong track record above and below the line (outside of 2022), and with the removal of the dreaded jury selections last year, it’s back to being a solid indicator of certain strengths and weaknesses.
Let’s go category by category with predictions (credit to the BBC website and their article for the formatting inspiration).
Best Film
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
This race is really between two films: Chloé Zhao’s Hamnet (which is having an incredible international box office run) and Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another. Either winning wouldn’t be a surprise.
But with its leading 14 nominations, the “domination” PTA’s film has shown so far, and not missing a single major nomination anywhere (while Hamnet was snubbed in Editing and Casting), the odds favor One Battle After Another. The likelihood of this turning into a Nomadland– or Oppenheimer-style sweep grows stronger by the day.
Prediction: One Battle After Another
Alternate: Hamnet
Outstanding British Film
• 28 Years Later
• The Ballad of Wallis Island
• Bridget Jones: Mad About the Boy
• Die My Love
• H Is For Hawk
• Hamnet
• I Swear
• Mr Burton
• Pillion
• Steve
Zhao’s Hamnet seems so destined to win here that it’s hard to imagine anything else even coming close. Maybe Kirk Jones’s I Swear has enough strength to be a runner-up, but nothing can defeat Zhao’s film.
Prediction: Hamnet
Alternate: I Swear
Leading Actress
• Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
• Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
• Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
• Chase Infiniti – One Battle After Another
• Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
• Emma Stone – Bugonia
Another race that feels sewn up. There’s just no world in which Jessie Buckley loses for Hamnet, and even if something shocking happened elsewhere, it wouldn’t happen here. The runner-up is probably Renate Reinsve for Sentimental Value, given the film’s strength, but it’s hard to say for sure.
Prediction: Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Alternate: Renate Reinsve, Sentimental Value
Leading Actor
• Robert Aramayo – I Swear
• Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
• Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
• Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon
• Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
• Jesse Plemons – Bugonia
Timothée Chalamet is likely to prevail for Safdie’s Marty Supreme, but there’s always a slight chance of an upset—maybe DiCaprio for One Battle After Another, or the BAFTA-nominated (but Oscar-snubbed) Robert Aramayo, who’s a big star overseas. Still, the Brits often go their own way only when the film has broad industry strength overall, so don’t expect much deviation here.
Prediction: Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Alternate: Leonardo DiCaprio, One Battle After Another, or Robert Aramayo, I Swear
Supporting Actress
• Odessa A’zion – Marty Supreme
• Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
• Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
• Carey Mulligan – The Ballad of Wallis Island
• Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
• Emily Watson – Hamnet
This feels more open to surprises than the other acting races, but given the film’s overall strength, Teyana Taylor will probably prevail for One Battle After Another. Competitors include hometown favorite Wunmi Mosaku for Sinners or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas for Sentimental Value.
Prediction: Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another
Alternate: Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Supporting Actor
• Benicio del Toro – One Battle After Another
• Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein
• Paul Mescal – Hamnet
• Peter Mullan – I Swear
• Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
• Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
This is Skarsgård’s chance to prove his Globe win wasn’t just love for Sentimental Value and that he’s in it to the end (SAG isn’t a place he has a shot). His stiffest competition might not be Benicio del Toro’s critically lauded role in One Battle After Another, nor Jacob Elordi for Frankenstein (despite the Critics’ Choice win and love for the source material, if not the film itself), but London Film Critics winner Sean Penn for PTA’s film—a body that has never given Penn a win, despite his two Oscars.
The European voter strength for Sentimental Value, plus the narrative and likability of the role, will probably give Skarsgård the win, but Penn has a real shot here.
Prediction: Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
Alternate: Sean Penn, One Battle After Another
Director
• Bugonia – Yorgos Lanthimos
• Hamnet – Chloé Zhao
• Marty Supreme – Josh Safdie
• One Battle After Another – Paul Thomas Anderson
• Sentimental Value – Joachim Trier
• Sinners – Ryan Coogler
Regardless of what happens in Best Film, this seems like a surefire spot to recognize Paul Thomas Anderson—even more than Adapted Screenplay. The alternate is Zhao for Hamnet.
Prediction: Paul Thomas Anderson, One Battle After Another
Alternate: Chloé Zhao, Hamnet
Original Screenplay
• I Swear
• Marty Supreme
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
Toss-up between Coogler’s work on Sinners and Trier’s on Sentimental Value. The Brits’ connection to more dialogue-heavy scripts gives the latter the edge.
Prediction: Sentimental Value
Alternate: Sinners
Adapted Screenplay
• The Ballad of Wallis Island
• Bugonia
• Hamnet
• One Battle After Another
• Pillion
Toss-up between Zhao and O’Farrell’s work on Hamnet and PTA’s adaptation of Pynchon’s Vineland. The former has home-turf advantage, but the latter hasn’t missed a beat, and PTA has won here before (for Licorice Pizza), so the film’s strength will likely carry it.
Prediction: One Battle After Another
Alternate: Hamnet
Casting
• I Swear
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sentimental Value
• Sinners
The last major above-the-line category, and the hardest to call. Look to which film is likely winning an acting award: that points to Sentimental Value, One Battle After Another, or Marty Supreme. The first isn’t Oscar-nominated, so it’s likely PTA’s or Safdie’s. Since Chalamet seems stronger in his category than Taylor, gut instinct says Marty Supreme wins, but it’s a tough read.
Prediction: Marty Supreme
Alternate: One Battle After Another
Here are the remaining BAFTA categories with predictions:
Outstanding Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer
• The Ceremony
• My Father’s Shadow
• Pillion
• A Want In Her
• Wasteman
Prediction: Pillion
Alternate: My Father’s Shadow
Film Not in the English Language
• It Was Just An Accident
• The Secret Agent
• Sentimental Value
• Sirât
• The Voice of Hind Rajab
Prediction: Sentimental Value
Alternate: The Secret Agent
Documentary
• 2000 Meters to Andriivka
• Apocalypse in the Tropics
• Cover-Up
• Mr Nobody Against Putin
• The Perfect Neighbor
Prediction: The Perfect Neighbor
Alternate: Mr Nobody Against Putin or 2000 Meters to Andriivka
Animated Film
• Elio
• Little Amélie
• Zootropolis 2
Prediction: Zootropolis 2
Alternate: Little Amélie
Children’s and Family Film
• Arco
• Boong
• Lilo & Stitch
• Zootropolis 2
Prediction: Zootropolis 2
Alternate: Arco
EE BAFTA Rising Star Award (voted for by the public)
• Robert Aramayo
• Miles Caton
• Chase Infiniti
• Archie Madekwe
• Posy Sterling
Prediction: Robert Aramayo
Alternate: Miles Caton or Chase Infiniti
Original Score
• Bugonia – Jerskin Fendrix
• Frankenstein – Alexandre Desplat
• Hamnet – Max Richter
• One Battle After Another – Jonny Greenwood
• Sinners – Ludwig Göransson
Prediction: Sinners
Alternate: One Battle After Another
Cinematography
• Frankenstein
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Train Dreams
Prediction: One Battle After Another
Alternate: Sinners or Train Dreams
Costume Design
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Sinners
• Wicked: For Good
Prediction: Frankenstein
Alternate: Hamnet
Editing
• F1
• A House of Dynamite
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
Prediction: F1
Alternate: One Battle After Another
Production Design
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
Prediction: Frankenstein
Alternate: Hamnet
Make-up and Hair
• Frankenstein
• Hamnet
• Marty Supreme
• Sinners
• Wicked: For Good
Prediction: Frankenstein
Alternate: Sinners
Sound
• F1
• Frankenstein
• One Battle After Another
• Sinners
• Warfare
Prediction: F1
Alternate: Warfare
Special Visual Effects
• Avatar: Fire and Ash
• F1
• Frankenstein
• How to Train Your Dragon
• The Lost Bus
Prediction: Avatar: Fire and Ash
Alternate: F1
British Short Film
• Magid / Zafar
• Nostalgie
• Terence
• This Is Endometriosis
• Welcome Home Freckles
Prediction: Nostalgie
Alternate: Any of the four
British Short Animation
• Cardboard
• Solstice
• Two Black Boys in Paradise
Prediction: Cardboard
Alternate: Two Black Boys in Paradise
Next week, after the BAFTA winners are announced, I’ll return to including Oscar categories alongside SAG and PGA predictions (and yes, Marty Supreme will be correctly removed from Score—thanks for the heads-up).
If you want to follow me on Twitter (x), the link is here
If you want to follow me on Letterboxd, the link is here
I’m also on the Awards Expert app, you can find me there.
