The BAFTA’s winners proved slightly perplexing in the supporting categories. Stats with BAFTA are tricky, though, because their voting has changed so much over the years. They didn’t hold them before the Oscars until 2000. In 2012, their voting changed again. But, given that, we have had years where Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress up to now came from three different groups producing three different winners.
There are also some weird factors, like Stellan Skarsgard, who won the Globe, isn’t nominated for the SAG. Amy Madigan, who may win the SAG, wasn’t nominated for the BAFTA. So take these with some skepticism. But let’s first look at Best Supporting Actor and how it’s looking right now and last year.
Kieran Culkin winning without a Best Picture nomination was highly unusual. Now, we can see from this year that it’s kind of a hot mess across the different groups. It has happened before, in 2005:
In the end, the Globes prevailed. But now, the Globes aren’t really the Globes. They’re a brand new voting body built around 2023. So they are less predictable than in the past. Neither Syriana nor Cinderella Man had a Best Picture nomination, but Clooney was overdue. Is Stellan the Clooney this year? Maybe. Hard to say.
Sean Penn would be winning his third Oscar. Given the strength of One Battle After Another, it probably wins at least one acting award. We just don’t know which one. Given that it’s split up all over the place, it’s hard to know how or who will prevail.
Tariq Khan, a Gold Derby pundit, has given an interview with Jack Mahanes in which he discusses his annual poll with SAG members. He is very knowledgeable about film awards, and I found what he said fascinating. He believes that Miles Caton will win because voters will want to give Sinners something if Ensemble doesn’t win. But without an Oscar nomination, I think it’s a long shot. The shocking win of Idris Elba in Beasts of No Nation is the only precedent for that.
But you can listen for yourself, and it also applies to Supporting Actress, where he is predicting Amy Madigan to win:
Here is how Supporting Actress looks now, though it is less rare for the winner to not have a Best Picture nomination. Regina King for If Beale Street Could Talk, for instance, or Alison Janney for I, Tanya. These are veterans, and Amy Madigan could slot right in there. She was recently feted with a special screening hosted by Sally Field. The photos showed up on none other than Frances Fisher’s Instagram.
I think that goes a long way to spread the word. Why wouldn’t Madigan win it?
And here are the examples from the past with these three different winners:
In 2000, Marcia Gay Harden won, and she didn’t win any of these three. In 2007 and 2008, BAFTA decided. This was before so many things changed, including BAFTA voting. But make of it what you will.
I am leaning toward both Madigan and Penn at the moment, but I’ll wait for SAG next weekend to decide that.
