Don’t forget to enter our contest to predict the PGA:
For some bizarre reason, the Producers Guild ended their voting February 3, 2016. Three full weeks before the actual awards, which will be held this Saturday. I can’t imagine any good reason for that. It defies all explanation and, as far as I can tell, it’s unusual. I don’t think it’s ever been quite that long. But it also means that all of the twists and turns we’ve seen throughout awards season (there haven’t been that many) will not be a factor this weekend when the Producers Guild announces their winner.
There is no reason at this time to expect any film other than One Battle After Another to win this, even though they spent an irresponsible amount of money and didn’t come close to making it back. We know already that Film Twitter protects the Precious. They love PTA as though he were a God, and this has always been true all of the years I’ve been covering the Oscars. And I get it. What’s not to love? He’s funny. He’s kind. He’s humble. He makes great movies (usually). So whatever. I accept the reality of what this is. But since no one else will talk about the problem of giving a movie that lost money the Oscar, it’s up to me to do that.
Hamnet, by contrast, has shown strength at the box office, especially internationally, since that is what people care about the most these days. That should count for something. Do I think it can pull a CODA and win? Probably not. I guess you never know on a preferential ballot. But the way things are going, it’s looking more like a Slumdog Millionaire/Argo year than a CODA year. Unless another movie like Sinners somehow manages to shock and win at the PGA. If the voting were later, and especially after what just happened at the BAFTAs, maybe the consensus might begin to change, but as of February 3rd, I’m not sure.
I don’t know if anything can derail One Battle After Another at this point. It has become the anthem for the people who essentially decide the Oscars now. They love the movie like they loved Argo and nothing will shake them out of it. But just for fun, let’s look at the charts.
Not since the expanded ballot has there been a film that has won, up to now, the NBR, the Globe, the Critics Choice, the BAFTA and the DGA. Argo came close but didn’t win the NBR. Prior to the expanded ballot, I believe that Slumdog Millionaire did it. American Beauty. Maybe it matters, maybe it doesn’t. But given that, One Battle is not likely to suddenly swerve off track and not win the PGA and the SAG.
If something else does win the PGA, however, then we might be in a different mindset but at this moment, this train can’t be derailed.
