Nextgen Oscarwatcher: The Unstoppable Force Vs. the Immovable Object

Heading into the final weekend of major guilds prior to the Oscar ceremony (which occurs in 13 days from now, with final voting occurring as we speak), many expected this to be the time for races to be solidified, and what many have considered to be an incredibly straightforward or expected outcome to have occurred ultimately pay off this weekend.

The Immovable Object

In a way, some will, and will continue to, make the case that it has. Paul Thomas Anderson’s One Battle After Another has not lost at a single major guild, winning the Producers Guild (on a preferential ballot), the Directors Guild, the American Cinema Editor’s guild (in comedy), and has won at sag in the presence of Sean Penn in Supporting Actor, combine that with a likely win at WGA, and potentially another at ASC, and one can very easily make the case that it is an immovable object, one that has proven itself to be too strong to lose.

The Unstoppable Force

However, the only thing that can topple an immovable object, or at the very least make it difficult to remain, is that of an unstoppable force. Ryan Coogler’s Sinners is a film that is very much that. It’s one that brings people to their feet, applauding the cast and crew; it’s a film with passion and can only become stronger the more it wins or the more it loses. Winning Best Actor for Michael B. Jordan and SAG Ensemble solidifies that not only is Sinners the viable alternative to One Battle After Another, but it’s also one that can win with the correct push and fundamentals.

It’s a head vs heart decision, and as we head into the final stretch of voting, one can make the case for either winning. Compared to last year, where one could argue the two frontrunners, Sean Baker’s Anora and Edward Berger’s Conclave, had rare moments of strength but surprisingly present moments of weakness, Warner Bros’s top two contenders have each shown strength and dominance in different ways.

Amy Madigan’s Comeback

After having lost the golden globe to Teyana Taylor (the only person to show up in every precursor), and outright getting snubbed by BAFTA, Madigan has made an incredible comeback into the Awards Race with her SAG win and a strong speech. Though the amount of precedent against her winning (like Demi Moore’s unfortunate loss last year) makes me hesitant to say anything of this nature is likely, as the film is even weaker than that film, there just might be enough wiggle room to get her over the finish line, but it is by no means a guarantee.

Best Actor’s Confounding Status

What started off as a coronation year for Chalamet for so many has now turned into what is perhaps the hardest race to call. Having won Critics Choice and Golden Globe, many believed Safdie’s Marty Supreme would win here, being a place for the young actor to be the first to win SAG back-to-back, and be the representative win for Marty Supreme. Nevertheless, with Chalamet losing the BAFTA to Aramayo and losing the SAG to Michael B. Jordan, it seems his chances have decreased. It’s more than simply not winning everywhere, but outright losing that puts his chances in jeopardy. Nevertheless, this really might turn into a race between Michael B. Jordan and… Wagner Moura, whom the former lost to nearly two months ago.

Oscar Predictions for this week

A few fairly noticeable changes would be

• Amy Madigan back to #1 in Supporting Actress, fairly difficult category to call(will be tossing and turning over this)
• Michael B. Jordan now de facto #1 in Lead Actor, SAG is significant, but how significant?
• One Battle After Another in #1 for Cinematography over Sinners, but all eyes on ASC next week

Best Picture

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sentimental Value
6. Frankenstein
7. Bugonia
8. Train Dreams
9. The Secret Agent
10.  F1

Best Director

1. Paul Thomas Anderson – One Battle After Another
2. Ryan Coogler – Sinners
3. Chloé Zhao – Hamnet
4. Joachim Trier – Sentimental Value
5. Josh Safdie – Marty Supreme

Best Actress

1. Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
2. Rose Byrne – If I Had Legs I’d Kick You
3. Renate Reinsve – Sentimental Value
4. Kate Hudson – Song Sung Blue
5. Emma Stone – Bugonia

Best Actor

1. Michael B. Jordan – Sinners
2. Wagner Moura – The Secret Agent
3. Timothée Chalamet – Marty Supreme
4. Leonardo DiCaprio – One Battle After Another
5. Ethan Hawke – Blue Moon

Best Supporting Actress

1. Amy Madigan – Weapons
2. Teyana Taylor – One Battle After Another
3. Wunmi Mosaku – Sinners
4. Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas – Sentimental Value
5. Elle Fanning – Sentimental Value

Best Supporting Actor

1. Sean Penn – One Battle After Another
2. Delroy Lindo – Sinners
3. Benicio Del Toro – One Battle After Another
4. Stellan Skarsgård – Sentimental Value
5. Jacob Elordi – Frankenstein

Best Original Screenplay

1. Sinners
2. Sentimental Value
3. Marty Supreme
4. It Was Just An Accident
5. Blue Moon

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. One Battle After Another
2. Hamnet
3. Train Dreams
4. Bugonia
5. Frankenstein

Casting

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Marty Supreme
5. The Secret Agent

Best International Feature

1. Sentimental Value
2. The Secret Agent
3. It Was Just An Accident
4. Sirât
5. The Voice of Hind Rajab

Best Documentary Feature

1. The Perfect Neighbor
2. Mr. Nobody Against Putin
3. The Alabama Solution
4. Come See Me In The Good Light
5. Cutting Through Rocks

Best Animated Feature

1. Kpop Demon Hunters
2. Little Amélie or the Character of Rain
3. Zootopia 2
4. Arco
5. Elio

Best Cinematography

1. One Battle After Another
2. Sinners
3. Train Dreams
4. Frankenstein
5. Marty Supreme

Best Editing

1. One Battle After Another
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. Marty Supreme
5. Sentimental Value

Best Production Design

1. Frankenstein
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Sinners
5. Marty Supreme

Best Costume Design

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. Marty Supreme
4. Hamnet
5. Avatar: Fire and Ash

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Frankenstein
2. Sinners
3. The Smashing Machine
4. Kokuho
5. The Ugly Stepsisters

Best Sound

1. F1
2. Sinners
3. One Battle After Another
4. Frankenstein
5. Sirât

Best Visual Effects

1. Avatar: Fire and Ash
2. F1
3. Sinners
4. The Lost Bus
5. Jurassic World: Rebirth

Best Original Score

1. Sinners
2. One Battle After Another
3. Hamnet
4. Bugonia
5. Frankenstein

Best Original Song

1. “Golden” from KPop Demon Hunters
2. “I Lied to You” from Sinners
3. “Dear Me” from Diane Warren: Relentless
4. “Train Dreams” from Train Dreams
5. “Sweet Dreams of Joy” from Viva Verdi!

Best Documentary Short

1. All the Empty Rooms
2. Armed Only with a Camera: The Life and Death of Brent Renaud
3. The Devil is Busy
4. Perfectly a Strangeness
5. Children No More: Were and Are Gone

Best Animated Short

1. Butterfly
2. The Girl Who Cried Pearls
3. Forevergreen
4. Retirement Plan
5. The Three Sisters

Best Live Action Short

1. Two People Exchanging Saliva
2. The Singers
3. A Friend of Dorothy
4. Butcher’s Stain
5. Jane Austen’s Period Drama

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