Finally, in a few short days we will officially have the end of this Oscar season. It has all come down to this, and I couldn’t be more ready to close this chapter. It is always a hard challenge to find enthusiasm in the Oscar race when your favorite isn’t winning, especially when it should. The two frontrunners shouldn’t be the frontrunners, but I know which one I would prefer over the other—but such is life. Hamnet deserved better, like my favorite last year, Sing Sing. Which is why I am looking forward to moving along to next year!
Normally, this is where I try to say something about cinema and share all my thoughts about the current decade we are discussing. But seeing how it is Oscar weekend, we will pause for one more week, and then we will resume our 80s discussion. This week I am just dropping my final Oscar predictions with my final thoughts! By all means, don’t take my word on any of this. I am no expert, and I just try to be me. In my predictions I try to go by some form of stats, read certain “experts” analyses, and then just go with my feels. So, here we go!
Jerm’s Official 98th Academy Awards Predictions
***my will win is my official prediction***
Best Picture:
Will win – One Battle After Another
Could win – Sinners
Should win – Hamnet
It’s no secret I do not like One Battle, and I will never understand the love for this movie. It is probably one of my least favorite Best Picture nominated films since I started following the Oscars in 2008. However, it is the unstoppable force at this point, and one cannot objectively predict against it when you are in the game of predictions. Sinners is the obvious second choice and could pull off the surprise win, but I am just not sure if the BAFTA catastrophe and the SAG surge had enough time to truly make a difference.
HAMNET DESERED BETTER!
Best Director:
Will win – PTA, OBAA
Could win – Coogler, Sinners
Should win – Zhao, Hamnet
I think Hamnet is Zhao’s masterpiece, and I think it will age beautifully, unlike the frontrunners. But alas, it is a race between Coogler and PTA. PTA is clearly winning after 14 nominations and decades of building a great filmography. I love his humbleness and have always wanted him to win an Oscar. I just had always hoped it would be for a movie I liked, not a film I loathe.
It would be cool to see Coogler make history as the first Black director to win the Oscar, but I just can’t see them going against PTA at this point.
Best Actor:
Will win – Timothée Chalamet, Marty Supreme
Could win – Michael B. Jordan, Sinners
Should win – Ethan Hawke, Blue Moon
I am not sure that Chalamet will win, but he has been my official prediction since before the season began. I do not think the whole overblown discussion of ballet and opera, which I think has been misinterpreted, had any effect on him since this took place after voting had already closed. It was a shock for him to lose BAFTA, and SAG he had won the year before, so it clearly isn’t a certain thing that he will win.
But it would be sad to watch him lose to Michael B. Jordan if he pulls off the win like he did at SAG. Chalamet gives the better performance in Marty Supreme than Jordan in Sinners by a long shot. I honestly am shocked that everyone seems to be so sure that Jordan is winning just because of SAG. I think it would not be a deserving win. I personally wouldn’t nominate the performance, but that is just me.
However, it is extremely upsetting to me that Ethan Hawke, who gives the best performance of the nominated actors, is going to go home empty-handed. Hawke should have been clean sweeping the entire season, hands down.
Best Actress:
Will win – Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Could win – no one
Should win – Jessie Buckley, Hamnet
Undeniably the best performance of the nominated actresses. The other nominees are all fine and well and gave wonderful performances, but Buckley has zero competition and deserves the clean sweep.
Best Supporting Actor:
Will win – Delroy Lindo, Sinners
Could win – Sean Penn, One Battle
Should win – Jacob Elordi, Frankenstein or Stellan Skarsgård, Sentimental Value
SHOULD HAVE BEEN NOMINATED AND WON: Paul Mescal, Hamnet
I am going with Delroy for a few reasons. BAFTA and SAG earned him tons of love in the middle of voting, and the way people cheered for him and loved watching him just felt rapturous. People love to see those types of moments. But again, I am not sure if there was enough time for that momentum to stir.
In a category that has felt all over the place, I think there is more of a chance for that to help boost a win for Lindo than for Sinners to unseat OBAA in Picture. I also think the OBAA dudes might cancel each other out, and Delroy could be helped by that, especially being in a strong frontrunner film.
Sean Penn should have hands down been a Razzie nominee and winner for OBAA. I have nothing kind to say, so I will leave that topic there. Jacob and Stellan would be worthy winners, but I am not sure of their chances even though they both won a precursor.
Paul Mescal, the performance of the year, deserved better.
Best Supporting Actress:
Will win – Amy Madigan, Weapons
Could win – Teyana Taylor, OBAA or Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
Should win – Amy or Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
Weapons was too much for me to endure. I tried. However, I did watch a retrospective of Madigan’s entire performance that was about 15 minutes, and what she did in those 15 minutes was fantastic work. She reminded me of Ruth Gordon in Rosemary’s Baby, which won her the Supporting Actress Oscar. I also think it is a joy to watch her win!
Teyana and Wunmi—I am not a fan of either performance. To me they don’t do much to deserve to win. It would be cool to see Inga win if Madigan doesn’t, because I think Inga gave an incredible, layered, and vulnerable performance that should have been competing against Madigan for the win, not an also-ran.
Best Original Screenplay:
Will win – Sinners
Could win – nothing
Should win – Sinners, Sentimental Value, and Blue Moon
Sinners hasn’t missed a win here all season, and I would say it would be a deserving screenplay to win. It has no real competition. However, equally, I think Sentimental Value and Blue Moon would make fantastic winners as well.
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Will win – One Battle After Another
Could win – nothing
Should win – Hamnet
Like Sinners, One Battle hasn’t missed a win here all season. Unfortunately it is being overhyped and over-rewarded, and the movie that should be winning stands no chance. Hamnet’s adaptation is brilliant, and it sucks to see it cast aside for such a poorly written screenplay like One Battle.
Casting:
Will win – Sinners
Could win – One Battle
Should win – Sinners or Hamnet
Sinners feels like it has this sewn up. I think much of the love for this movie is because of its expansive cast. The SAG ensemble win for the film felt electric when it won, and I think people love to see it win. It would be a worthy winner. One Battle also has a pretty big cast, so it could win here, but I don’t think it will.
It remains to be seen how this category will play out and what it will shape up to be. Hamnet would make a great winner to me, but that’s just because I love it and think it is the best film of the year.
***For the below-the-line predictions, I am just giving my will win, could win, should win predictions without commentary.***
International Feature:
Will win – Sentimental Value
Could win – The Secret Agent
Should win – Sentimental Value
Documentary Feature:
Will win – Mr. Nobody Against Putin
Could win – The Perfect Neighbor
Should win – I don’t have a real preference here
Animated Feature:
Will win – KPOP Demon Hunters
Could win – nothing
Should win – Zootopia 2
Cinematography:
Will win – Sinners
Could win – One Battle
Should win – Train Dreams (this should have been a no-brainer!)
Editing:
Will win – One Battle
Could win – I don’t think anything stands a chance, really
Should win – I don’t have a preference here
Production Design, Costume Design, and Hair and Makeup:
Will win – Frankenstein
Could win – again, nothing stands a chance
Should win – Frankenstein deserves it, IMO.
Visual Effects:
Will win – Avatar: Fire and Ash
Could win – nothing?
Should win – Avatar
Sound:
Will win – F1
Could win – Sinners?
Should win – F1
Score:
Will win – Sinners
Could win – nothing
Should win – Sinners
Song:
Will win – “Golden,” KPOP Demon Hunters
Could win – “I Lied to You,” Sinners
Should win – “I Lied to You,” Sinners
Documentary Short:
Will win – All the Empty Rooms
Could win / Should win – unsure, your guess is as good as mine, but All the Empty Rooms just seems to be the right winner here.
Animated Short:
Will win – Butterfly
Could win – Forevergreen
Should win – No preference
Live Action Short:
Will win – Two People Exchanging Saliva
Could win / Should win – unsure, this category stumps me frequently
Those are my final predictions for this year’s Academy Awards! My best score ever was 23, and my worst was 17, so I truly have no idea where I will land this year. We will find out Sunday night!
Take my predictions with a grain of salt, make your own picks, and enjoy the show. That’s half the fun of Oscar night anyway.
I will be in the comment section during the ceremony, and I hope you will join me. Whether we are celebrating wins, shocked by upsets, or groaning at the results, it is always more fun when we experience it together.
Also, I want to wish Sasha a very Happy Birthday! Thank you for being such a dear friend and mentor. Thank you for uplifting my voice and for all the encouragement and guidance you have given me, both professionally in the world of cinema and the Oscars, and personally over the last eight months. You are a blessing!
With that, be kind, be respectful… and as always, Let’s Talk Cinema!
