NextGen Oscarwatcher: Major takeaways from the 79th Cannes Film Festival

To many, this year’s addition of the Cannes Film Festival (79^th to be exact) was one that was difficult to articulate, even to those who were involved in the entire process. It started with a few major works by Hamaguchi and Pawlikowski, and as the two weeks unfolded, films by Mungiu, Calvo, and Ambrossi, as well as a few others, began to define what the festival was all about. Having not been there myself and having not seen any of the films, I’m not the best person to look to for an opinion on this matter, but from what I have gathered, the festival seemed to very much define what Cannes is all about.

Of course, there will be major Oscar players down the road, some of which will be discussed in this article, but Cannes by and large has been an event marked by one’s love of the filmmaking medium, especially on a global scale. From films that discussed political or societal issues, to others that discussed a moment in time or a historical period, to explorations in human connection and what individuals mean to one another, each film has intrinsic value, and looking at it from a critical lens is as important, perhaps more so in this case, than an awards or financial one, though one would be kidding themselves if that wasn’t a major part of it.

Let’s go step by step on what the actual festival, and the awards of the festival, might bare out later in the year

Mungiu strikes again

Fjord was a film that many people had many thoughts on regarding its awards potential, and if this was one that many had a predetermined notion of. It’s a film that dares to question the hypocrisies of society and its treatment of ideas which are considered “the other” or unlike what is to be expected. The reception has been mostly positive, but many believed its chances of winning the top prize were unlikely, given the more positive reviews than other films in the running, which were considered more “emotional” and theatrical, contrasting with Mungiu’s down-to-earth, grounded vision.

Nevertheless, the Palme d’Or was awarded to Mungiu’s film, and thus Neon has gone 7-for-7 in Palme wins since the Parasite year, an incredible feat, while the filmmaker is one of only a few to win more than one top prize at the fest. Some are questioning whether this will translate to AMPAS love, but given the European lean of the Academy, and its subject matter being one of long ponderation, it’s a strong bet that the film is headed for noms in Picture, Director, Actor for Stan, Actress for Reinsve, and Original Screenplay, though the race can always fluctuate. A video on reactions from individuals regarding this win can be found here.

The Black Ball is the Discovery of the Fest, while other films make their claim

Outside of Fjord, many were looking for what other films make an impact at the festival, ones that may or may not go the distance to any awards love, or any international acclaim for that matter.

If there was one film that undoubtedly surprised people in its discovery, it was Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi’s The Black Ball, which opened to a rapturous response, a nearly twenty minute standing ovation, and was the ambitious swing that, for the most part, seemed to have worked. A 2.5-hour epic on three different time periods, all tied together to one’s sexuality. It’s been hailed as bombastic, and one that many believe can go the distance in the same way something like Audiard’s Emilia Pérez did (which earned 13 nominations as a standout of Cannes).

Akin to Audiard’s film, Netflix scooped up its distribution rights, making this seemingly their major player of the year alongside Fincher’s Cliff Booth film (which has been dated for December), it’ll be important to witness how other festivals respond to the film as well.

Calvo and Ambrossi both won best director at the festival (you can find their initial reactions here), tying with Paweł Pawlikowski for Fatherland, which too is a film that many have their eyes on not only for Picture and International Feature, but Director, and Actress for Hüller, who, as stated before, is having a year between this film and a number of others.

The other winners of the festival that are of significance include Andrey Zvyagintsev’s Minotaur, which won the Grand Prix, Valeska Grisebach’s The Dreamed Adventure, which won the Jury Prize, Valentin Campagne and Emmanuel Macchia, who won Best Actor together for Lukas Dhont’s Coward, Virginie Efira and Tao Okamoto who won Best Actress together for Ryusuke Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden, and Emmanuel Marre’s A Man of His Time won Best Screenplay, a strong set of winners all around.

Cannes has always been a festival of reverence and discovery, and this year was no different.

Updated Oscar Predictions For This Week

I was hesitant to really change any predictions until Cannes was over, as it was difficult to really note who and what was going to prevail, and if there would be any indication of said win, which is still true even now.

However, there are a couple I would have to make following certain awards, and information, etc

• For Best Picture, Pawlikowski’s Fatherland and Egger’s Werwulf have been swapped out in favor of Calvo and Ambrossi’s The Black Ball, and Eisenberg’s No One Cares after information of the latter’s screening at the Cannes Market, indicating it is in fact coming out this year.
• For Director, Pawlikowski has been swapped by Calvo and Ambrossi, but this too remains a tight race where this early out, anyone can show up
• For Supporting Actor, Jeremy Strong for The Social Reckoning has been swapped out by Paul Giamatti for No One Cares
• Noma Dumezweni for Prima Facie has been swapped by Tao Okamoto for All of A Sudden, but this category could have anyone in contention this early out
• For Original Screenplay, Queen At Sea has been swapped with No One Cares, and in Adapted Screenplay, Dune: Part Three has been swapped with The Black Ball
• For Casting, The Social Reckoning has been swapped out by The Black Ball
• For a handful of techs, The Black Ball has been put in a slot, and others have been taking out
• Most interestingly, for the international feature, I have bumped up The Black Ball to the frontrunner position, at the expense of Rose, but Fjord’s eligibility here (having won the Palme, and being in Norwegian in addition to English) is up for debate as of now.

Here are the updated predictions

Best Picture

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Cry to Heaven
6. The Black Ball
7. Dune: Part Three
8. Fjord
9. A Place in Hell
10.  No One Cares

(alts: Werwulf, The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden)

Best Director

1. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
2. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
3. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
5. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball

(alts: Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland, Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Digger, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary, Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three )

Best Actor

1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

(alts: Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!, John Turturro The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jafar Jackson, Michael)

Best Actress

1. Michelle Williams, A Place In Hell
2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
4. Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea
5. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

(alts: Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning, Julianne Moore, No One Cares Sandra Hüller, Rose)

Best Supporting Actor

1. John Goodman, Digger
2. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven
3. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
5. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

(alts: Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning, Riz Ahmed, Digger, Willem Dafoe, Werwulf)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
3. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
4. Sandra Hüller, Digger
5. Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden

(alt: Noma Dumezweni, Prima Facie, Inde Navarrette, Obsession or Penélope Cruz, The Invite)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. Fjord
4. A Place In Hell
5. No One Cares

(alt: Queen At Sea or Club Kid)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Project Hail Mary
2. Cry to Heaven
3. The Odyssey
4. All of a Sudden
5. The Black Ball

(alts: Dune: Part Three and The Social Reckoning)

Best Casting

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. The Odyssey
4. Cry to Heaven
5. The Black Ball

(alt: The Social Reckoning and Fjord)

Best International Feature

1. The Black Ball
2. Fatherland
3. All of a Sudden
4. Minotaur
5. Coward

(Alternate: Rose and Fjord if its eligible)

Best Animated Feature

1. Wildwood
2. Hoppers
3. Forgotten Island
4. Toy Story 5
5. Tangles

Best Documentary Feature

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. American Doctor
3. Nuisance Bear
4. When a Witness Recants
5. One in a Million

Best Cinematography

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Fatherland
4. The Black Ball
5. Dune: Part Three

Best Editing

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. The Black Ball

Best Production Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Cry to Heaven
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Werwulf

Best Costume Design

1. Cry to Heaven
2. The Odyssey
3. Werwulf
4. Sense and Sensibility
5. The Black Ball

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Resident Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The End of Oak Street
5. Avengers: Doomsday

Best Sound

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The Black Ball
5. The Adventures of Cliff Booth

Best Score

1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Disclosure Day
5. Behemoth!

As always,

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Happy Memorial Day to All Who Celebrate!