NextGen Oscarwatcher: Disclosure Day, The DGA and who has the Narrative?

Continuing on from last week’s article, it’s appropriate to turn to the DGA (Directors Guild of America) and discuss what ultimately might be in contention, or, in this case, who has the narrative to go all the way on paper.

Many will look towards Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day as a very clear example of a film that, to a lot of normies, would be considered a “top tier” awards player, Directed (and written partially) by one of the most beloved filmmakers of this generation and in film history, it seems almost foolish to bet against it on paper, especially with some of the early positive word of mouth that it has earned from those who have seen it early (which one can find here if they are interested). With praise towards the script, the direction, and a performance from Emily Blunt that some are going to push for awards consideration, it has the ingredients of something that could have an impact, especially if it is successful financially.

The main question becomes, why aren’t people as confident as one would think in its chances to go all the way?

The main answer comes from experience and expectation. In addition to being a genre film, it needs to make a significant amount of buzz to remain in the conversation, and not be “perceived” as a failure. A passion project from Spielberg, it will for sure have its supporters critically and will be an initial hit on its opening weekend, but needs to sustain that overseas, which is likely to be a challenge considering how his past two films have fared. However, its appeal as a genre film can help it in this regard.

John Williams is probably destined to at least get nominated for this film, the track found here is already receiving several notices. In addition to him, the sound work of the film is likely to be in contention considering its genre, a few other techs and whatnot. Then it becomes a question of the above-the-line prospects: can Koepp and Spielberg obtain a writing nom, can Emily Blunt muster an Oscar nom, and can the film pull off a picture or directing nom? This will all be dependent on how the next few weeks go for the film, if it is a success, and if its initial reactions have any bearing on potentially gaining organic buzz, or becoming a word-of-mouth hit.

A place that used to be (and still is to an extent) very open to honoring Steven Spielberg was the Directors Guild of America, where he currently holds the record for most wins in 3, and most nominations being 13 (one can find information on the theatrical feature category here).

If Spielberg’s influence on the award circuit was as prevalent as it was in his most significant decade (say the 80s or 90s), chances are he would be a shoo-in to get nominated. However, the film has to prove itself to be a viable contender to ultimately do that. By the time one reads this piece, the reviews might have already been released (slated for Tuesday), so it’ll be interesting to see how this plays out.

For the sake of it, here are my DGA predictions

• Martin McDonaugh, Wild Horse Nine
• Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
• Alejandro G. Iñarritu, Digger
• Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
• Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven

Other contenders to consider

• Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day
• Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three
• Jesse Eisenberg, No One Cares
• Tony Gilroy, Behemoth!
• Javier Ambrossi, Javier Calvo, The Black Ball
• Chloe Domont, A Place In Hell

Oscar Predictions for week of 8 June 2026

Not much has changed this week, but if there was to be something of note, it would be

• Disclosure Day in Best Sound over The Adventures of Cliff Booth
• To Hold a Mountain over When a Witness Recants in Documentary Feature
• I have also decided to include Best Song, though it’s a question over certain eligibilities, etc

Without further conversation, here are some updated predictions

Best Picture

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Cry to Heaven
6. The Black Ball
7. Dune: Part Three
8. Fjord
9. A Place in Hell
10.  No One Cares

(alts: Obsession, The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Disclosure Day, Werwulf, Behemoth!)

Best Director

1. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
2. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
3. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
5. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball

(alts: Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland, Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Digger, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary, Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day)

Best Actor

1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

(alts: Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!, John Turturro The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jafar Jackson, Michael)

Best Actress

1. Michelle Williams, A Place In Hell
2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
4. Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea
5. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

(alts: Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning, Julianne Moore, No One Cares Sandra Hüller, Rose, Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day )

Best Supporting Actor

1. John Goodman, Digger
2. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven
3. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
5. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares

(alts: Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning, Riz Ahmed, Digger, Willem Dafoe, Werwulf)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
3. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
4. Sandra Hüller, Digger
5. Inde Navarrette, Obsession

(alt: Noma Dumezweni, Prima Facie, Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden or Penélope Cruz, The Invite)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. Fjord
4. A Place In Hell
5. No One Cares

(alt: Obsession, Queen At Sea and Club Kid)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Project Hail Mary
2. Cry to Heaven
3. The Odyssey
4. All of a Sudden
5. The Black Ball

(alts: Dune: Part Three and The Social Reckoning)

Best Casting

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. The Odyssey
4. Cry to Heaven
5. The Black Ball

(alt: The Social Reckoning and Fjord)

Best International Feature

1. The Black Ball
2. Fatherland
3. All of a Sudden
4. Minotaur
5. Rose

(Alternate: Coward and Fjord if its eligible)

Best Animated Feature

1. Wildwood
2. Hoppers
3. Forgotten Island
4. Toy Story 5
5. Tangles

Best Documentary Feature

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. American Doctor
3. Nuisance Bear
4. One in a Million
5. To Hold a Moutain

Best Cinematography

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Fatherland
4. Dune: Part Three
5. Jack of Spades

Best Editing

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. The Black Ball

Best Production Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Cry to Heaven
5. The Black Ball

Best Costume Design

1. Cry to Heaven
2. The Odyssey
3. Werwulf
4. Sense and Sensibility
5. The Black Ball

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Resident Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The End of Oak Street
5. Avengers: Doomsday

Best Sound

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The Black Ball
5. Disclosure Day

Best Score

1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Disclosure Day
5. Behemoth!

Best Song

1. I Knew It, I Knew You from Toy Story 5
2. How to Write a Song (Without You) from Power Ballad
3. La Playa from The Black Ball
4. Runway from The Devil Wears Prada 2
5. Diane Warren Track (not sure of which film but one will present itself as it always does)

As always,

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