NextGen Oscarwatcher: first look at SAG (Actor) Ensemble Contenders

It’s hard to talk about the Oscars and the awards race in general in these months leading up to the festival simply because it’s all just “waiting and seeing” what will ultimately be in contention, let alone release, during this film year specifically. What one might know or attempt to infer as we enter the midway point of the year (right now, we are just about 45% done with 2026), is

• Project Hail Mary is a Best Picture nominee
• Fjord and The Black Ball are the two *big* Cannes contenders if there are to be any
• Obsession is on the rise and the discovery of the year, but its up in the air how strong it will be, determined by what comes out for the remainder of the year.
• Michael and Disclosure Day are true question marks.

I intend to go into a more in-depth analysis post when the midway point of the year approaches, say in the first week of July, a week before or after, depending on what new information comes out in the near future, but this would be the basis for it at the moment.

SAG (Actor) Ensemble Outlook

Something I haven’t done in several months is look towards Award Expert for potentially attempting to conjure up a consensus, or a set of predictions one might look towards as a benchmark for said category.

This will change this post, with a look at what the community is predicting for SAG Ensemble.

Below is the current community prediction

I can’t really argue with the top eight listed here; all of these films (specifically that of Digger, Wild Horse Nine, and The Odyssey) feel very actor-friendly, and a miss in this said category would perhaps be indicative of the weakness of said films in other guilds, or in other precursors.

The Black Ball feels very strong as a Netflix contender, and akin to Audiard’s Emilia Pérez, if it is to be a major player, the guilds might be more responsive to it than most foreign films, especially given how sprawling the ensemble is.

Following that, I’m stuck between choosing either Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning or Ford’s Cry to Heaven for what actors might connect to (if the latter is even releasing this year). Due to my undying confidence or predictions for Ford’s film until proven not to release this year, I would slot it in at the moment, especially if it is a major player at fall film festivals.

My SAG Ensemble five would be now

• Digger
• Wild Horse Nine
• The Odyssey
• The Black Ball
• Cry to Heaven (if it’s releasing this year)

Other contenders I would keep an eye on include

• The Social Reckoning
• No One Cares (rumored to be called The Debut)
• Dune: Part Three
• Michael

Oscar Predictions for Week of June 15

Nothing has really changed, just waiting for more films to be released, or announced said release.

Without further discussion, here are the predictions

Best Picture

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Cry to Heaven
6. The Black Ball
7. Dune: Part Three
8. Fjord
9. A Place in Hell
10.  No One Cares (The Debut)

(alts: Obsession, The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Disclosure Day, Werwulf, Behemoth!)

Best Director

1. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
2. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
3. Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven
4. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
5. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball

(alts: Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland, Alejandro G. Iñárritu for Digger, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary, Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day)

Best Actor

1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

(alts: Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!, John Turturro The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jafar Jackson, Michael)

Best Actress

1. Michelle Williams, A Place In Hell
2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
4. Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea
5. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie

(alts: Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning, Julianne Moore, No One Cares (The Debut) Sandra Hüller, Rose, Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day )

Best Supporting Actor

1. John Goodman, Digger
2. Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven
3. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
5. Paul Giamatti, No One Cares (The Debut)

(alts: Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning, Riz Ahmed, Digger, Willem Dafoe, Werwulf)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
3. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
4. Sandra Hüller, Digger
5. Inde Navarrette, Obsession

(alt: Noma Dumezweni, Prima Facie, Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden or Penélope Cruz, The Invite)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. Fjord
4. A Place In Hell
5. No One Cares (The Debut)

(alt: Obsession, Queen At Sea and Club Kid)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Project Hail Mary
2. Cry to Heaven
3. The Odyssey
4. All of a Sudden
5. The Black Ball

(alts: Dune: Part Three and The Social Reckoning)

Best Casting

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. The Odyssey
4. Cry to Heaven
5. The Black Ball

(alt: The Social Reckoning and The Debut)

Best International Feature

1. The Black Ball
2. Fatherland
3. All of a Sudden
4. Minotaur
5. Rose

(Alternate: Coward and Fjord if its eligible)

Best Animated Feature

1. Wildwood
2. Hoppers
3. Forgotten Island
4. Toy Story 5
5. Tangles

Best Documentary Feature

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. American Doctor
3. Nuisance Bear
4. One in a Million
5. To Hold a Moutain

Best Cinematography

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Fatherland
4. Dune: Part Three
5. Jack of Spades

Best Editing

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. The Black Ball

Best Production Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Cry to Heaven
5. The Black Ball

Best Costume Design

1. Cry to Heaven
2. The Odyssey
3. Werwulf
4. Sense and Sensibility
5. The Black Ball

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Resident Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The End of Oak Street
5. Avengers: Doomsday

Best Sound

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The Black Ball
5. Disclosure Day

Best Score

1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Disclosure Day
5. Behemoth!

Best Song

1. I Knew It, I Knew You from Toy Story 5
2. How to Write a Song (Without You) from Power Ballad
3. La Playa from The Black Ball
4. Runway from The Devil Wears Prada 2
5. Diane Warren Track (not sure of which film but one will present itself as it always does)

As always,

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