NextGen Oscarwatcher: Plausible Oscar Hopefuls from The First Half of 2026

It’s crazy just how fast this year has flown by, even when comparing it to others. With the box office booming and people finally returning to theaters regularly, the Cinematic landscape might be making a comeback that is more sustainable than the false declarations of the past. Though once again, it’s important to note that this is by no means a guarantee, and it is up to the studios and visionaries to “create” the material, and the public to experience it. As a famous film from the 1980s once said, “Build it, and they will come,” and that has never been truer than it is at this stage in the entertainment industry.

This all can be translated to the awards race, specifically what has been released in the early portion of the year, and what might be remembered by the time December rolls in, and the major players start to be narrowed down. Though it’s undoubtedly been a fairly strong first half in terms of major films people is coming to see, it’s been one that hasn’t had that many “major” Oscar contenders, though, when has it ever? I’ve decided to leave out Cannes titles for this piece as those technically haven’t been released to the major public, and will thus be considered the major point of next week’s article (as will everything else that is yet to release).

The Major Films to look out for

If there are two films one must most likely pencil in for a Best Picture nom, or at the very least, be on the cusp of one this early out, it would be the work of Phil Lord and Christopher Miller’s Project Hail Mary, and, perhaps as more of an underdog, one would put in Curry Barker’s Obsession.

Two films that to many, would be considered more unorthodox choices for the Academy (one a space epic, the other a graphic horror exploration), the amount of significance both have on the film industry, and specifically the success of both, will very much be remembered by the time critics, and industry voters, will make their say, or at the very least, both should be.

Project Hail Mary works both as a film that is reflective of why people have gone to the cinema in the first place. It’s a unifying experience about connection, and the desire to “do good” and have a desire to be better, and listen to others, only for the sake of understanding them. It’s incredibly well-made and anchored by an incredible performance from Ryan Gosling. It’s the type of film people remember long after the Oscar season ends, and judging by how much it has made both in the United States and overseas, it undoubtedly resonated with a large number of individuals.

Curry Barker’s Obsession followed a different trajectory. Premiering at the Toronto Film Festival and being picked up by Focus Features for a large sum of a purchase price, the horror endeavor has broken so many records in terms of success. Making the amount it has on a budget rumored to be just shy of $1 million is a narrative the industry is not going to pass up on. It’s of course, a question of how far it could reasonably go, but as of this moment, it seems fairly certain that it’s an underdog that gets more and more support the more people see it, as most out of the ordinary Oscar players often do.

Films on the Bubble

Two films that have made some noise financially that have a ceiling of prospects, but a floor that could result in a minimal amount of nominations would be Steven Spielberg’s Disclosure Day and Antoine Fuqua’s Michael, which have both at the very least been *seen* by people.

Spielberg’s film is considered by many to be among his more divisive works, a work with a message, but one that for many, is too simplistic, and for others, too confusing to properly work. Nevertheless, it has its far share of fans, and with the reverence Spielberg has with the industry, there is a world the industry (fueled by the guilds specifically) would recognize this film.

Fuqua’s film is one that also has made a ton of money, and though some would not want to recognize its hold considering the controversies that have plagued the production (and continued to even after its release), the audience numbers don’t lie. However, like Disclosure Day, Michael isn’t just dependent on its prospects to be nominated; it’s also dependent on its competition, and if the field is slim enough to lead to potential above and below the line nominations.

Films that will be nominated in other places

Outside of those top four, other movies that will more likely than not be nominated elsewhere include Andrew Stanton’s Toy Story 5 (Animated Feature and Original Song), Daniel Chong’s Hoppers (Animated Feature), John Carney’s Power Ballad (Original Song), among others I probably have not considered.

Films that have been released but need a push

Every year in the first half, there are certain films that some will push for awards love that might go underseen, such as Kane Parson’s Backrooms (Production Design), Aleshea Harris’s Is God Is (Adapted Screenplay), Boots Riley’s I Love Boosters (Original Screenplay), Michael Sarnoski’s The Death of Robin Hood (perhaps techs), David Frankel’s The Devil Wears Prada 2 (Perhaps Song and Costume Design), and Kirk Jones’ I Swear (Best Actor). I would also be foolish not to mention Kyle Balda’s The Sheep Detectives, and Anthony Maras’ Pressure, which might attract the old guard of the industry, BAFTA specifically.

One can find all information regarding American films that have been released this year on the Wikipedia page here and on the 2026 Cinema as a whole here

Oscar Predictions for this week of 22 June 2026

The real major change I would make regarding this week, due to uncertainty on if it’s releasing this year, would be Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven. Variety’s article on the Venice Film Festival found here highlights that the film might not be ready in time, and without a distributor, Ford’s film needs a festival, and with its Venice setting, it would be nearly sacrilegious not to have it ready in time for that screening.

Though there is always the off chance it does premiere, I have tentatively removed it from all my categories.

In its place

• Obsession in Best Picture over Cry to Heaven
• Alejandro G. Iñarritu in Best Director for Digger over Tom Ford for Cry to Heaven
• The Social Reckoning in Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor (Jeremy Strong) over Cry to Heaven and Aaron Taylor-Johnson
• Obsession in Best Casting over Cry to Heaven
• Dune: Part Three in Best Costume Design and Best Production Design over Cry to Heaven
• On a side note, with the information of Inde Navarrette going lead for Obsession, I have moved her into the category over Cynthia Erivo for Prima Facie, a film that does not seem to have much information regarding a release date, etc.

Alas, here are the nominations

Best Picture

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. The Black Ball
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Fjord
8. A Place in Hell
9.  The Debut
10. Obsession

(alts: Cry to Heaven (If its releasing this year), The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Disclosure Day, Werwulf, Behemoth!)

Best Director

1. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
2. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
3. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
4. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, The Black Ball
5. Alejandro G. Iñarritu, Digger

(alts: Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (If it’s releasing)  Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary, Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day)

Best Actor

1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

(alts: Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!, John Turturro The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jaafar Jackson, Michael)

Best Actress

1. Michelle Williams, A Place In Hell
2. Sandra Hüller, Fatherland
3. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
4. Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea
5. Inde Navarrette, Obsession

(alts: Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning, Julianne Moore, The Debut, Sandra Hüller, Rose, Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day )

Best Supporting Actor

1. John Goodman, Digger
2. Paul Giamatti, The Debut
3. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

(alts: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (If it’s releasing this year),  Riz Ahmed, Digger, Willem Dafoe, Werwulf)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
3. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
4. Sandra Hüller, Digger
5. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball

(alt: Noma Dumezweni, Prima Facie, Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden or Penélope Cruz, The Invite)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. Fjord
4. A Place In Hell
5. The Debut

(alt: Obsession, Queen At Sea and Club Kid)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Project Hail Mary
2. The Odyssey
3. All of a Sudden
4. The Black Ball
5. The Social Reckoning

(alts: Cry to Heaven (if releasing), Dune: Part Three and The Invite)

Best Casting

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. The Odyssey
4. The Black ball
5. Obsession

(alts: Cry to Heaven (if releasing), The Social Reckoning and The Debut)

Best International Feature

1. The Black Ball
2. Fatherland
3. All of a Sudden
4. Minotaur
5. Rose

(Alternate: Coward and Fjord if its eligible)

Best Animated Feature

1. Wildwood
2. Hoppers
3. Forgotten Island
4. Toy Story 5
5. Tangles

Best Documentary Feature

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. American Doctor
3. Nuisance Bear
4. One in a Million
5. To Hold a Mountain

Best Cinematography

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Fatherland
4. Dune: Part Three
5. Jack of Spades

Best Editing

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. The Black Ball

Best Production Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Dune: Part Three
5. The Black Ball

Best Costume Design

1. The Odyseey
2. Werwulf
3. Sense and Sensibility
4. The Black Ball
5. Dune: Part Three

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Resident Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The End of Oak Street
5. Avengers: Doomsday

Best Sound

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The Black Ball
5. Disclosure Day

Best Score

1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Disclosure Day
5. Behemoth!

Best Song

1. I Knew It, I Knew You from Toy Story 5
2. How to Write a Song (Without You) from Power Ballad
3. La Playa from The Black Ball
4. Runway from The Devil Wears Prada 2
5. Diane Warren Track (not sure of which film but one will present itself as it always does, perhaps Somewhere We All Belong From The Crystal Planet)

As always,

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