NextGen Oscarwatcher: Previewing the next Six Months

As the year approaches its midpoint and the summer kicks into shape, individuals who are looking forward to a year of major blockbusters can not only look forward to the quality of works that are in store (with quite a wide variety of projects for that matter), but appreciate how the financial success and outlook of such industry seems to be booming in a way that hasn’t been seen since the Coronavirus outbreak (which has no doubt changed the whole world, possibly forever).

As some have noted in the past, the 2020s have been a decade of significant change both regarding the film industry and life in general(though for this article lets focus simply on the former). There was already a sense of an Academy that was in an influx of progression and change (ever since 2016, if one were to pencil in a moment or year in history), but it was all enhanced by the events of 2020, the “Great Awokening” some have dubbed it. An influx of academy voters who were already skewing International becoming more and more noticeable, permanently cementing the ten slots for the best picture category, and prepping for the inevitable move to YouTube in just two years from now, it’s a lot to really take in. However, the biggest impact of the changes has been the films the academy has recognized in its nominations; “Oscar bait” is no longer easily definable. What once was present, such as a biopic or ambitious swing from an auteur, might now be an indie film from an up-and-coming filmmaker, or an international film honored at Cannes or Venice, and adored by critics alongside these more artistic academy voters.

However, this isn’t a black and white circumstance; some blockbusters or “Oscar bait” films will no doubt be too big to ignore or too resonant with a subsection of the academy that no doubt pushes it into the ten. Some international films will just be underseen or too “difficult” for the academy to connect to, nothing ever fully changes or goes away, it just evolves into something else.

Films like Phil Lord and Christopher Miller’s Project Hail Mary might feel like Blockbuster best picture nominees of the past that might not be as beloved by the international voting body, and some think others are “overestimating” its chances, though at least from my perspective, it’s just “too big to ignore.” It’s too well-liked, too popular, too emotionally resonant, and too successful to turn down. Whether or not it’s a top-five contender remains to be seen, but a slot in the top ten just feels secure at the moment. The same argument can be used for Curry Barker’s Obsession.

Another film, one that is on the horizon after being highlighted at this year’s edition of the Sundance Film Festival, is Olivia Wilde’s The Invite. Opening to rave reactions from critics and film bloggers, it’s a dark horse contender that can go pretty far with the right pushes. Based on Cesc Gay’s The People Upstairs, the film has been praised for its script by Will McCormack and Rashida Jones, its ensemble cast consisting of Seth Rogen, Olivia Wilde, Pénelope Cruz, and Edward Norton, and the vibe that Wilde brings to the table. Opening in select theaters this past weekend, before an expansion on July 10^th, it’s a film that might just get bigger and bigger the more it is seen by people. Here is a first look in case anyone hasn’t seen the trailers yet. This alone has earned 1.7 million views already.

In addition to The Invite, another A24 film that has got a lot of people talking, gunning for a Fall Film Festival premiere is that of Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut (trailer here), which showcases a fascinating look at theater with Julianne Moore in the lead and Giamatti alongside her (could be co-lead, could run in supporting), undoubtedly one to keep an eye on.

Which brings to the next question: Are genre, American films that make a noise, still the secret success in the Oscar race that many bloggers don’t realize? The Cannes Launching Pad is still a place that is valuable to look to for Oscar players, with films like Hamaguchi’s All of a Sudden and Pawlikowski’s Fatherland on the horizon in a couple of categories, but the idea of prioritizing work from recognizable filmmakers and actors cannot go unnoticed.

It’s just something to ponder as we enter the midpoint of the year. Next week, we will cover the fall film festivals, and what might be going on, but for now, this seems like a solid point of discussion.

Before going on to Oscar predictions, some housekeeping, I forgot to mention my updated guild predictions with the likelihood of Tom Ford’s Cry to Heaven moving to next year.

PGA Ten

• Wild Horse Nine
• The Odyssey
• Digger
• Project Hail Mary
• La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
• Dune: Part Three
• The Debut
• Obsession
• A Place In Hell
• The Invite

Alternates: The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Fjord, Michael

DGA Five

• Martin McDonaugh, Wild Horse Nine
• Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
• Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger
• Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La Bola Negra(The Black Ball)
• Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary

SAG Ensemble Five

• Digger
• Wild Horse Nine
• La Bola Negra
• The Odyssey
• The Social Reckoning

Oscar Predictions for Week of June 29, 2026

A few changes to go along with potential skepticism of International contenders

• Sandra Hüller out of Best Actress for Fatherland, in Julianne Moore for The Debut (she is now officially confirmed as lead)
• All of a Sudden out of Best Adapted Screenplay, in The Invite
• The Devil Wears Prada 2 out of Best Original Song, The Debut In
• I have also moved Paul Giamatti up to number one in Supporting Actor, ahead of John Goodman

Alas, here are the predictions

Best Picture

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
6. Dune: Part Three
7. Fjord
8. A Place in Hell
9.  The Debut
10. Obsession

(alts: The Invite, Cry to Heaven (If its releasing this year), The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Disclosure Day, Werwulf, Behemoth!)

Best Director

1. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
2. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
3. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
4. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Alejandro G. Iñarritu, Digger

(alts: Tom Ford, Cry to Heaven (If it’s releasing)  Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary, Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day)

Best Actor

1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
3. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
4. Sebastian Stan, Fjord
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

(alts: Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!, John Turturro The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jaafar Jackson, Michael)

Best Actress

1. Michelle Williams, A Place In Hell
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut
3. Inde Navarrette, Obsession
4. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
5. Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea

(alts: Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning, Sandra Hüller, Rose or Fatherland, Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day )

Best Supporting Actor

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut
2. John Goodman, Digger
3. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
5. Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning

(alts: Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Cry to Heaven (If it’s releasing this year),  Riz Ahmed, Digger, Willem Dafoe, Werwulf)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
3. Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place in Hell
4. Sandra Hüller, Digger
5. Penélope Cruz, The Black Ball

(alts, Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden or Penélope Cruz, The Invite Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. Fjord
4. A Place In Hell
5. The Debut

(alts: Obsession, Queen At Sea and Club Kid)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Project Hail Mary
2. The Odyssey
3. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. The Invite
5. The Social Reckoning

(alts: All of A Sudden, Cry to Heaven (if releasing), Dune: Part Three)

Best Casting

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. The Odyssey
4. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Obsession

(alts: Cry to Heaven (if releasing), The Social Reckoning and The Debut)

Best International Feature

1. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
2. Fatherland
3. All of a Sudden
4. Minotaur
5. Rose

(Alternate: Coward and Fjord if its eligible)

Best Animated Feature

1. Wildwood
2. Hoppers
3. Forgotten Island
4. Toy Story 5
5. Tangles

Best Documentary Feature

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. American Doctor
3. Nuisance Bear
4. One in a Million
5. To Hold a Mountain

Best Cinematography

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Fatherland
4. Dune: Part Three
5. Jack of Spades

Best Editing

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. The Odyssey
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Best Production Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Dune: Part Three
5. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Best Costume Design

1. The Odyseey
2. Werwulf
3. Sense and Sensibility
4. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Dune: Part Three

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Resident Evil

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The End of Oak Street
5. Avengers: Doomsday

Best Sound

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Disclosure Day

Best Score

1. The Odyssey
2. Project Hail Mary
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Disclosure Day
5. Behemoth!

Best Song

1. I Knew It, I Knew You from Toy Story 5
2. How to Write a Song (Without You) from Power Ballad
3. La Playa from La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. Untitled song from The Debut
5. Diane Warren Track (not sure of which film but one will present itself as it always does, perhaps Somewhere We All Belong From The Crystal Planet)

As always,

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