NextGen Oscarwatcher: What The Film Festivals Say About the Oscar Race

Over the past week, both the Toronto International Film Festival and the Venice Film Festival have essentially revealed what will be premiering or screening over the course of the days and weeks these gatherings are taking place. Some revelations were fairly predictable or straight forward (new work from Martin McDonaugh and Danny Boyle screening at Venice, new Chris Rock and Sian Heder premiering at TIFF), while the most notable moments was seemingly the lack of certain major players at these two fairly high profile festivals.

Films from Tony Gilroy (Behemoth!) Aaron Sorkin (The Social Reckoning), Alejandro G. Iñárritu (Digger), Denis Villeneuve (Dune: Part Three), Chloe Domont (A Place In Hell, notably devoid of much fanfare specifically), Luca Guadagnino (Artificial, which is doing an obscure rollout later in the year), and David Fincher (The Adventures of Cliff Booth, though this might screen at NYFF or be a late addition), are all missing from Venice and TIFF.

However, the lineup that has not properly been announced (and won’t be until the day before the festival’s start date), is Telluride.

Some films have been silently confirmed for the Fest, including (this excludes the Cannes holdovers)

• The Debut (dir: Jesse Eisenberg)
• Elsinore (dir: Simon Stone)
• Tender Loving Care (dir: Mike Leigh)
• A Long Winter (dir: Andrew Haigh)
• Everest: The Other Side (dir: Jimmy Chin and Elizabeth Chai Vasarhelyi)
• Ink (dir: Danny Boyle)

The point of the major fall film festivals, at least from my point of view, isn’t to shine a light on the major studio releases; rather, it can be a “jumping pad” for films that would need this traction to gain an audience of some sort. The most high-profile filmmakers might opt out simply on the notion that it is not needed, and might be a hindrance where certain critics, or awards bloggers, can set the narrative (as we have noted here, it’s the tastemaker mentality).

We’ll see more news regarding the Fests this week, with NYFF likely announcing more soon (by the time one reads these posts, it’s plausible that there will be more major title announcements).

Oscar Predictions For Week of 27 July, 2026

A few changes, specifically due to lack of information on certain titles

• With Chloe Domont’s A Place In Hell not having a presence at these fests, I am removing it from its three categories of Best Actress, Best Supporting Actress, and Best Original Screenplay (replaced by Sandra Hüller for Rose, Olivia Colman for Elsinore, and Obsession for Original Screenplay)
• With Williams out of Best Actress, I’m sticking with my instincts and tentatively putting Inde Navarrette for Obsession in #1 for Best Actress in a Leading Role. Let’s see how it plays out.
• With The Social Reckoning not premiering at fests (and rumors of reshoots, not the best information for a film), I have moved Jeremy Strong out of Best Supporting Actor and put in John Leguizamo for The Odyssey.
• I have also moved Ava Duvernay’s upcoming documentary 14th into Best Documentary Feature over Nuisance Bear
• I have moved Iron Boy into Best Animated Feature over Tangles

Alas, here they are

Best Picture

1. The Odyssey
2. Wild Horse Nine
3. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Digger
6. The Debut
7. Dune: Part Three
8. Obsession
9. Fjord
10. The Invite

(alts: A Place In Hell, Ink, Elsinore, Cry to Heaven (If its releasing this year), The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Disclosure Day, Werwulf, Behemoth!)

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
2. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
3. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. Alejandro G. Iñarritu, Digger
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord 

(alts: Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary, Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day)

Best Actor

1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
4. Andrew Scott, Elsinore
5. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

(alts: Sebastian Stan, Fjord Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth,  Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!, John Turturro The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jaafar Jackson, Michael)

Best Actress

1. Inde Navarrette, Obsession
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut
3. Sandra Hüller, Rose
4. Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie
5. Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea

(alts: Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green Michelle Williams, A Place In Hell  Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann Renate Reinsve, Fjord Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning, Sandra Hüller, Rose or Fatherland, Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day )

Best Supporting Actor

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut
2. John Goodman, Digger
3. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey

(alts: Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Riz Ahmed, Digger, Willem Dafoe, Werwulf)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
3. Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore
5. Sandra Hüller, Digger

(alts, Daisy Edgar-Jones, A Place In Hell; Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden or Penélope Cruz, The Invite Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary)

Best Original Screenplay

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Digger
3. Fjord
4. The Debut
5. Obsession

(alts: Misty Green, Queen At Sea and Club Kid)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Project Hail Mary
2. The Odyssey
3. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. The Invite
5. Ink

(alts: The Social Reckoning, All of A Sudden, Dune: Part Three)

Best Casting

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Obsession

(alts: Being Heumann, The Social Reckoning and The Debut)

Best International Feature

1. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
2. Fjord
3. All of a Sudden
4. Fatherland
5. Rose

(Alternate: Coward and Minotaur)

Best Animated Feature

1. Wildwood
2. Hoppers
3. Forgotten Island
4. Toy Story 5
5. Iron Boy

Best Documentary Feature

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. American Doctor
3. 14th
4. One in a Million
5. To Hold a Mountain

Best Cinematography

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Fatherland
4. Dune: Part Three
5. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Best Editing

1. The Odyssey
2. Wild Horse Nine
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Best Production Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Dune: Part Three
5. Werwulf

Best Costume Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Werwulf
3. Sense and Sensibility
4. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Dune: Part Three

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Michael

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The End of Oak Street
5. Avengers: Doomsday

Best Sound

1. Dune: Part Three
2. The Odyssey
3. Project Hail Mary
4. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Disclosure Day

Best Score

1. The Odyssey
2. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Disclosure Day
5. Project Hail Mary

Best Song

1. I Knew It, I Knew You from Toy Story 5
2. TBD from La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
3. How to Write a Song (Without You) from Power Ballad
4. Untitled song from The Debut
5. Diane Warren Track (not sure of which film but one will present itself as it always does, perhaps Somewhere We All Belong From The Crystal Planet)

As always,

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