There is no better time for the Academy to shrink Best Picture down to five. The best reason is that it would make them more competitive at the Golden Globes and BAFTA because exclusivity is more alluring than all-inclusive. The reason they have ten now is, let’s face it, to cover their ass. I even suggested this as a reason to expand the ballot to ten. Meaning, there can be films by women, people of color, etc., and save them from a total freak-out by the fanatics who hover over all things culture.
Another reason is that the Oscar race wants five. Five Best Directors, actors, screenplays, etc. It makes no sense to have there be ten when it obviously makes five of those ten look like also-rans. Even though CODA only had three nominations, there’s still a good chance it would have made it in with five. Five is a high compliment. Ten is “everybody gets a certificate.”
True, this is a year where blockbusters might get included where they wouldn’t have otherwise. Dune III, for instance, but certainly Obsession or maybe even Project Hail Mary, though it is still the best film of the year to my mind. We know our Oscar voters, though, don’t we? If it ain’t woke…
They won’t be shrinking it down to five this year, and that makes our jobs predicting the Oscars so much easier. We’re really only negotiating the last slot every year since the PGA always gives us most of the ten. But if there were only five, what would be the five?
Since we still have not seen all of the films, we’re working with only partial information here. If we named them right now, based on what has been seen and what we more or less have heard about, it would look something like this:
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
La Bola Negra
Obsession
Wild Horse Nine (people I know have seen it and have said “it’s a knockout”)
Then, expanding it but still only including films we know have been seen and assessed, it would go:
Fjord
The Invite
Dune III (not seen but we can assume we know what it will be)
The rest of the films that might make it in are mostly wishful thinking. It’s odd that most pundits, not all, still predict films they have not seen. That always sets up expectations too high and it’s not that easy to live up to them. One of those films right now is Alejandro G. Inarritu’s Digger, which is high on everyone’s list based on Inarritu’s double Best Director wins and buzz about Tom Cruise’s performance.
There is apparently a plot twist in it that people should be prepared for. I have no idea what to expect but I’m guessing it’s yet another RICH MAN BAD movie, like Alex Gibney’s upcoming film on Elon Musk is sure to be. Always point the finger at the bad guys while elevating yourself seems to be the pattern now in Hollywood among the filmmakers, particularly the males, particularly the white males. ABSOLUTION! ABSOLUTION! We’re the good guys, right? Those people over there are the bad guys, right?? Right??
I do not know if that is what Digger is about or any of the other films upcoming, but we can probably guess. Danny Boyle’s Ink is about the supervillain origin story of Rupert Murdoch. Artificial is about Big Bad AI. The Social Reckoning about EVIL Mark Zuckerberg.
But there are other movies that feel like character studies too, like Elsinore, Being Heumann, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Behemoth!
Venice is coming at the end of this month, along with Telluride. Then comes Toronto and then New York. How much film festivals will influence the Oscar race is not known. Most of the time, Best Picture does come from a festival. Last year’s winner did not and if The Odyssey wins this year, it won’t.
Anora – Cannes
Oppenheimer — theatrical
Everything Everywhere All At Once – SXSW
CODA – Sundance
Nomandland – Sundance
Parasite – Cannes
Green Book – Toronto
The Shape of Water – Venice
Moonlight – Telluride
Spotlight – Venice
Birdman – Venice
12 Years a Slave – Telluride
Argo – Telluride
The Artist – Cannes
The King’s Speech – Telluride
The Hurt Locker – Toronto (previous year)
Prior to that, the winners often did not come from festivals because that became the norm once the Oscars pulled their deadline back to February instead of March. That pushed everything back, too, and we did not see movies like, say, Rain Man or Terms of Endearment or Titanic winning.
Obviously, if The Odyssey wins, it will be like Oppenheimer: Best Picture the old-fashioned way, where a movie becomes a cultural phenomenon, tops the box office and then wins. That’s really the industry working the way it should and the Oscars having some sort of way to honor a spectacular achievement like that.
I don’t see any movie overtaking The Odyssey because I can’t see any reason people would not want to vote for it. It is seen as a noble effort with Lupita Nyong’o as Helen of Troy and Elliot Page in an important role. Nolan is meeting the moment by helping Hollywood drag its progressive ideology forward into Hollywood hits. So whatever beats The Odyssey will have to be deemed more “important,” and I don’t see any movies on tap at the moment that can do that.
The Odyssey is not The Brutalist or Conclave. Christopher Nolan is a hero in Hollywood for many reasons, like he stands up for movies in movie theaters and he used practical effects. If there can be such a thing as a purist or a puritan in Hollywood, he’s it.
For their part, Netflix is making a play with La Bola Negra and will give it a long theatrical run in hopes of scratching off that one liability, that it’s not a “movie in movie theaters,” because it will be, as will Cliff Booth. Yes, I’ve seen the news that there will be reshoots and it might be pushed to 2027. I’m still assuming, and hoping, it is released this year.
I don’t know if The Odyssey can top Oppenheimer with awards or even last year’s winner, One Battle. But given the massive size of the voting body and how the patterns have played out of late, it’s probably a good guess that it will sweep all or most of the precursors.
Although One Battle won more awards than any film in the history of awards, Oppenheimer still beats it in major precursors because it also won the SAG. Whether that will be The Odyssey’s fate, I don’t know. I assume so.
Here are my predictions.
Best Picture
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
La Bola Negra
Wild Horse Nine
Obsession
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Fjord
Dune III
Digger
The Invite
Alt. Ink
Director
Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Los Jovis, La Bola Negra
David Fincher, Adventures of Cliff Booth
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Curry Barker, Obsession
Alt. Christian Mungiu, Fjord, Denis Villeneuve, Dune III, Olivia Wilde, The Invite, Danny Boyle, Ink
Actor
Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Tom Cruise, Digger
Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Alt. Andrew Scott, Elsinore, Guy Pearce, Ink
Actress
Inde Navarette, Obsession
Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Renate Reinsve, Fjord
Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Debut
Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra
Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Edward Norton, The Invite
Supporting Actress
Penelope Cruz, La Bola Negra
Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
Samantha Morton, The Odyssey
Carla Gugino, The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Sandra Huller, Project Hail Mary
Original Screenplay
Misty Green
Fjord
Wild Horse Nine
Obsession
Ink
Adapted Screenplay
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
La Bola Negra
The Invite
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Editing
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Dune III
Adventures of Cliff Booth
Wild Horse Nine
Casting
The Odyssey
The Debut
Digger
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
La Bola Negra
Visual Effects
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Werwulf
Disclosure Day
Cinematography
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Werwulf
La Bolla Negra
Costumes
Werwulf
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
The Adventures of Cliff Booth
Sense and Sensibility
Makeup and Hair
Digger
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
Wewulf
Adventures of Cliff Booth
Production Design
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
Project Hail Mary
Werwulf
Adventures of Cliff Booth
