NextGen Oscarwatcher: What Narratives Might the Fall Film Festivals Present?

Sort of piggybacking off of last week’s focus on films that have already been released, it’s important to note just how fast approaching the Fall Film Festivals are. Venice starts in just north of three weeks from now, and following that, Telluride will commence, leading into TIFF, and then NYFF, where we bloggers will try to put the pieces of the puzzle together to create one whole. It’s a lot to take in, but after following the season for a number of years, and covering it for a couple now, some get used to it, and try to pinpoint what might stand out, and what might not.

I am attending the 53^rd Telluride Film Festival this year, and what makes the experience so special is how intimate the experience is. Press screens films alongside the public, creating a feeling that is wholly impactful in a way that other festivals can’t really pull off. The lineup isn’t announced officially until the day before the festival, but there are rumors and expectations about what might ultimately premiere.

Films that have the potential to be screened at the Telluride Film Festival this year that I am most looking forward to are that of

• Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut
• Simon Stone’s Elsinore
• Javier Calvo and Javier Ambrossi’s La Bola Negra
• Cristian Mungiu’s Fjord
• Danny Boyle’s Ink
• Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine
• Andrew Haigh’s A Long Winter
• Mike Leigh’s Tender Loving Care

There will, of course but other films that screen, but the narrative features from these directors are noticeable due to the pedigree of those in question, the subject matter, the ensemble casts, or the overall Oscar prospects of those in question. I will at the very least hope to catch these over the course of Labor Day weekend, and report back day-to-day.

What Narratives and Films Could Become the Constant?

The films that will define the festivals, regardless of how they turn out, will most likely be new works by Martin McDonagh, Danny Boyle, and Jesse Eisenberg, and the recurring intrigue in Mungiu’s and Los Javis’ Cannes titles, though many others will attempt to emerge. From TIFF, the biggest debut on paper is Chris Rock’s Misty Green, which is a main slate NYFF screening, with star Rosalind Eleazar to look out for.

This year could very easily be the one to reward Martin McDonagh in some capacity (though he is technically an Oscar winner in the form of Live Action Short), especially if Wild Horse Nine proves to be a major player. This could also be the year Eisenberg finally gets a film into the best picture lineup in the form of The Debut after missing for A Real Pain the year prior, though this remains to be seen. It’s all a question of what will stick, and what will not, but before we know it the fall film fests will arrive, and there will be certain answers to some questions and more questions that need answers overall.

Oscar Predictions for Week of 10 August 2026

A few changes I have made to reflect certain vibes and momentum

• Rosalind Eleazar in Best Actress for Misty Green over Cynthia Erivo for Prima Facie
• Samantha Morton in Supporting Actress for The Odyssey over Sandra Hüller for Digger
• Wicker in Best Makeup and Hairstyling over Michael

Alas, here they are

Best Picture

1. The Odyssey
2. Wild Horse Nine
3. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Digger
6. Obsession
7. Dune: Part Three
8. The Debut
9. The Invite
10. Fjord

(alts: Ink, Misty Green, Elsinore, The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Disclosure Day, Werwulf, Behemoth!)

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
2. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
3. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. Alejandro G. Iñarritu, Digger
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord 

(alts: Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary, Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day)

Best Actor

1. Tom Cruise, Digger
2. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore

(alts: Sebastian Stan, Fjord Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth,  Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!, John Turturro The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jaafar Jackson, Michael)

Best Actress

1. Inde Navarrette, Obsession
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut
3. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose
5. Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea

(alts: Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann Renate Reinsve, Fjord Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning, Sandra Hüller, Rose or Fatherland, Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day )

Best Supporting Actor

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut
2. John Goodman, Digger
3. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey

(alts: Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra Aaron Taylor-Johnson, Riz Ahmed, Digger, Willem Dafoe, Werwulf)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine
2. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
3. Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. Olivia Colman, Elsinore
5. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey

(alts: Sandra Hüller, Digger Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden or Penélope Cruz, The Invite Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary, Samantha Morton, The Odyssey  )

Best Original Screenplay

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Obsession
3. Fjord
4. The Debut
5. Digger

(alts: Misty Green, Queen At Sea and Club Kid)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Project Hail Mary
2. The Odyssey
3. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. The Invite
5. Ink

(alts: The Social Reckoning, All of A Sudden, Dune: Part Three)

Best Casting

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Obsession

(alts: Being Heumann, The Social Reckoning and The Debut)

Best International Feature

1. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
2. Fjord
3. All of a Sudden
4. Fatherland
5. Rose

(Alternate: Coward and Minotaur)

Best Animated Feature

1. Wildwood
2. Hoppers
3. Forgotten Island
4. Toy Story 5
5. Iron Boy

Best Documentary Feature

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. American Doctor
3. 14th
4. One in a Million
5. To Hold a Mountain

Best Cinematography

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Fatherland
4. Dune: Part Three
5. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Best Editing

1. The Odyssey
2. Wild Horse Nine
3. Digger
4. Project Hail Mary
5. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Best Production Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Dune: Part Three
5. Werwulf

Best Costume Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Werwulf
3. Sense and Sensibility
4. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Dune: Part Three

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Wicker

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. The End of Oak Street
5. Avengers: Doomsday

Best Sound

1. The Odyssey
2. Dune: Part Three
3. Project Hail Mary
4. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Disclosure Day

Best Score

1. The Odyssey
2. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Disclosure Day
5. Project Hail Mary

Best Song

1. I Knew It, I Knew You from Toy Story 5
2. TBD from La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
3. How to Write a Song (Without You) from Power Ballad
4. Untitled song from The Debut
5. Diane Warren Track (not sure of which film but one will present itself as it always does, perhaps Somewhere We All Belong From The Crystal Planet)

As always,

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