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Let’s Talk Cinema with Jerm: Seasons Change and So Do Oscar Predictions

Jeremy Jentzen by Jeremy Jentzen
August 12, 2026
in featured, Jeremy Jentzen
136
Let’s Talk Cinema with Jerm: Seasons Change and So Do Oscar Predictions

The most beautiful time of the year is about to take place in Michigan, at least in my opinion. The slow fade from the heat of summer to the chill of fall, the rich and lush greens giving way to vibrant shades of red, orange, and yellow, not to mention the seasonal activities of apple orchards, pumpkin patches, and corn mazes. It is such a wonderful transition, one I look forward to every year.

There always comes a moment toward the end of July or early August when this feeling sort of rises in me, and I start craving that seasonal change. It happens every year, and it lingers until I finally give in and cover my house in festive colors, pumpkins galore, and the smells of cinnamon, cloves, and warm spices.

Well, the feeling has finally hit this year, and it happened while on my journey up north to our family cabin. I was driving the long, winding roads through the rural backwoods of northern Michigan. The sun was shining brightly across the hilly farmlands. I passed Amish horse-and-buggies, and the scenery was picturesque and quiet. Something in me said, “Play ‘Both Sides Now’ by Joni Mitchell.”

My heart began to ache with a longing for peace, a deep desire to slow down life, a yearning for this wonderful time of year, and yet this lingering feeling that I don’t really understand life at all. Somehow, it just keeps going faster and faster, with each day seeming to pass more quickly than the one before it.

There is a scene in The Curious Case of Benjamin Button that regularly rotates through my brain about life and the choices we make. How one choice affects another, how all of our collective choices are somehow intertwined, and how, if any one of them were different, life could be drastically different from the one we are living. I have always found this clip profound and fascinating because I think it is deeply human to ruminate on life and wonder what would have happened if we had chosen just one thing differently.

Think of Meryl in that truck, pouring-down rain, Clint Eastwood in the truck in front of her, Meryl’s hand on the car door handle… Should she get out? Should she stay? That choice affects an unknowable number of lives, for better or worse.

I assume we have all felt or experienced these thoughts in our own ways. All the choices we make lead us to who we are and where we are right now. These choices define us in many ways, like it or not. We are, in many ways, the sum of the choices we make in this life.

For example:

Had my grandma not shown me The Wizard of Oz as a kid, would I have developed my fascination with movies?

Had my parents not taken me to see Toy Story, would I have fallen in love with the movie theater?

What if my friend had not invited me to church, and I didn’t meet my wife? What if I had never gotten into the horrific rollover car accident that eventually led to me dating my wife and proposing six months later?

What if I had gone away to college like I planned? Would I know any of the people I currently know?

What if I had never messaged Sasha? I probably wouldn’t be here writing this odd rant that I have no idea how I’m going to finish.

In all of these examples, there were lots of choices made, not just by me, but by many people, and somehow they all intertwined to put me here.

Right here. Right now.

I find this to be such an incredible, profound, and mysterious part of life. It baffles me. Maybe there is a lesson here to be learned?

We are all humans trying to make it through this crazy journey. Some seasons of life are difficult, while others are peaceful and easy. But if I know anything about seasons, they always change. I always remind myself, “Life won’t always be like this.” No matter what kind of season I am in, that statement is always true.

I am not sure what any of this has to do with film… let me turn this around…

Fall is coming. Awards season is about to begin again… and we have absolutely no idea what will happen or what choices will be made along the way. But the train is almost at the station, and we are about to go along for a wild ride.

Are you ready?

This awards season, I am going to try to do more of a temperature check and let you know where I am at with my predictions. This will not be weekly. But I figure, before the festivals start, I should leave you with my far-too-early current predictions, which really mean nothing at all.

These will change drastically, so take them with many grains of salt!

Jerm’s Pre-Festival Far Too Early ATL Oscar Predictions

Best Picture:

La Bola Negra
The Odyssey
Wild Horse Nine
The Debut
Project Hail Mary
Digger
Dune: Part III
Sense and Sensibility
The Invite
Obsession

Best Director:

Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Los Javis, La Bola Negra
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Phil Lord and Christopher Miller, Project Hail Mary
Olivia Wilde, The Invite

Best Actress:

Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
Inde Navarrette, Obsession

Best Actor:

Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Andrew Scott, Elsinore
Tom Cruise, Digger
Seth Rogen, The Invite

Best Supporting Actress:

Parker Posey, Wild Horse Nine
Olivia Colman, Elsinore
Penélope Cruz, The Invite
Esme Creed-Miles, Sense and Sensibility
Samantha Morton, The Odyssey

Best Supporting Actor:

Paul Giamatti, The Debut
Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra
Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
Edward Norton, The Invite

Original Screenplay:

Wild Horse Nine
Obsession
Digger
The Debut
Elsinore

Adapted Screenplay:

La Bola Negra
The Invite
Project Hail Mary
Sense and Sensibility
The Odyssey

For now, I will lock those choices in until we get a clearer picture and all the movers and shakers start choosing what and who should be in or out. Their choices will impact mine, and everyone else’s. It’s all part of the game we play.

The good news is, whether we like it or not, this season will end and a new one will begin, and we will just keep going around and around. It is all part of the fun twists and turns of life.

But as I was reminded on my drive, I know nothing, I am just along for the ride, and this too shall pass.

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