NextGen Oscarwatcher: The Calm Before the Festival Storm

As the Festival Season approaches quickly, it’s really just waiting until it officially commences before saying anything definitive about what is being programmed. As alluded to on nearly all of my weekly columns, there are a few movies that have been penned as “contenders on paper” by both myself, and others who participate in this hemisphere, while there are other major films that could find a place in the Awards Race, but it is just too early to call as of yet, or there is just too little information on said project. It’s a fixed game for some, with multiple films likely already solidified in the race, but for others, the sky is the limit, and it’s impossible to tell what will stick the landing and what will struggle to reach an audience.

Previewing Telluride

The most important concept to remember about the Telluride Film Festival is how organic and genuine it truly is. The films are sometimes subtly announced through the lineups of other fests, such as Toronto and New York, but many go in not knowing what to expect, or when. Cannes holdovers such as Mungiu’s Fjord or Los Jovis’ La Bola Negra will no doubt play a part, as will other films that are likely to screen, garnering potential tribute awards, etc.

Of the films slated to premiere or screen not including Cannes titles, the ones I am most eager to witness would be Martin McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine (screening here between Venice and TIFF), Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut which will for sure be a major talking point, to Simon Stone’s Elsinore which could be the stealth breakout of the fest, and whatever else the lineup has in store, potentially several films that will be major talking points in my dispatches to any who read them here.

I will be headed out on Thursday, a day before it commences, and barring any major hiccup or delay, will dispatch the days of the fest from Thursday to Sunday. It will be a hectic couple of days, but it is an annual adventure that is rewarding whenever it is attended.

It’s fascinating because a few years ago it really did seem like Film Festivals as a whole were far more secretive and harder to truly predict, shaping the race in ways so many never really expect. But seemingly, the race has changed, and in some years, it’s easier to expect certain things than others. It will be fascinating to see how it ultimately plays out this year.

Oscar Predictions

Nothing has changed this week, as it is the calm before the storm

Alas, here they are

Best Picture

1. The Odyssey
2. Wild Horse Nine
3. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Digger
6. Obsession
7. Dune: Part Three
8. The Debut
9. The Invite
10. Fjord

(alts: Ink, Misty Green, Elsinore, The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Disclosure Day, Werwulf, Behemoth!)

Best Director

1. Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
2. Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
3. Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. Alejandro G. Iñarritu, Digger
5. Cristian Mungiu, Fjord 

(alts: Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary, Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day)

Best Actor

1. Matt Damon, The Odyssey
2. Tom Cruise, Digger
3. John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
4. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
5. Andrew Scott, Elsinore

(alts: Sebastian Stan, Fjord Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth,  Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!, John Turturro The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jaafar Jackson, Michael)

Best Actress

1. Inde Navarrette, Obsession
2. Julianne Moore, The Debut
3. Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
4. Sandra Hüller, Rose
5. Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea

(alts: Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann Renate Reinsve, Fjord Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning, Sandra Hüller, Fatherland, Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day )

Best Supporting Actor

1. Paul Giamatti, The Debut
2. John Goodman, Digger
3. Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
4. Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
5. John Leguizamo, The Odyssey

(alts: Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra Riz Ahmed, Digger, Willem Dafoe, Werwulf)

Best Supporting Actress

1. Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
2. Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
3. Olivia Colman, Elsinore
4. Samantha Morton, The Odyssey
5. Penélope Cruz, The Invite 

(Alts: Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine Sandra Hüller, Digger Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden or Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary, Samantha Morton, The Odyssey  )

Best Original Screenplay

1. Wild Horse Nine
2. Obsession
3. Fjord
4. The Debut
5. Digger

(alts: Misty Green, Queen At Sea and Club Kid)

Best Adapted Screenplay

1. Project Hail Mary
2. The Odyssey
3. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. The Invite
5. Ink

(alts: The Social Reckoning, All of A Sudden, Dune: Part Three)

Best Casting

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Obsession

(alts: Being Heumann, The Social Reckoning and The Debut)

Best International Feature

1. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
2. Fjord
3. All of a Sudden
4. Fatherland
5. Rose

(Alternate: Coward and Minotaur)

Best Animated Feature

1. Wildwood
2. Hoppers
3. Forgotten Island
4. Toy Story 5
5. Iron Boy

Best Documentary Feature

1. Once Upon a Time in Harlem
2. American Doctor
3. To Hold A Mountain
4. One in a Million
5. 14^th

Best Cinematography

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Fatherland
4. Dune: Part Three
5. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)

Best Editing

1. The Odyssey
2. Wild Horse Nine
3. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
4. Project Hail Mary
5. Digger

Best Production Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Digger
3. Project Hail Mary
4. Dune: Part Three
5. Werwulf

Best Costume Design

1. The Odyssey
2. Werwulf
3. Sense and Sensibility
4. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Dune: Part Three

Best Makeup and Hairstyling

1. Digger
2. Werwulf
3. The Odyssey
4. Clayface
5. Wicker

Best Visual Effects

1. Dune: Part Three
2. Project Hail Mary
3. The Odyssey
4. Avengers: Doomsday
5. Whalefall

Best Sound

1. The Odyssey
2. Dune: Part Three
3. Project Hail Mary
4. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
5. Disclosure Day

Best Score

1. The Odyssey
2. La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
3. Wild Horse Nine
4. Disclosure Day
5. Project Hail Mary

Best Song

1. La Nieve from La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
2. I Knew It, I Knew You from Toy Story 5
3. How to Write a Song (Without You) from Power Ballad
4. Untitled song from The Debut
5. By Any Means from By Any Means

As always,

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