After John Malkovich rose to the top of the pile, Andrew Scott in Telluride said “Hold my beer.” At least that’s what it’s looks like from the reception in Telluride, which is one of those things that sometimes happens. Raves upon raves upon raves.
I think Andrew Scott can ride this all the way to a win because he has all of the necessary factors. He’s long overdue for any kind of awards recognition, considering the work he’s turned in. But there’s more to it than that. He has a history with this story because he once played Hamlet.
That was eight years ago. Now, he’s back as an actor playing Hamlet while dying of AIDS. The dying part gives the role the necessary gravitas. Actors and Shakespeare, you know the drill. But no openly gay man has ever won Best Actor. Isn’t that a hell of a stat, considering who covers the Oscars, loves the Oscars, the last demographic that remains loyal to the Oscars? I think it is. But times have changed.
The membership has changed. There isn’t the same kind of “steak-eater” demo that would block Andrew Scott. It’s also got the “standing ovation” factor. Everyone will feel good seeing him win because 1) he will give a great speech every time, and 2) they will feel like they’re doing “good” with their vote. I think lock it in now because there is not likely to be another male performance that can top him.
Primeras imágenes de #Elsinore con Andrew Scott en el punto de mira del #Oscar que se cuelan en una promoción de Focus para esta temporada. Se espera su estreno mundial en el Festival de Telluride. #Oscars pic.twitter.com/qfafxrIjja
— For Your Consideration (@FYC_Oscar) August 31, 2026
The main reason I think he could be the frontrunner is “the story” more so than the performance. Oscar wins are more often than not about how voters feel voting and telling a story during Oscar season that “feels right.” I don’t know, at the moment, who else has “the narrative.” The Steak-eater vote will be split between the various male leads, like Matt Damon in The Odyssey, John Malkovich in Wild Horse Nine and whomever else might emerge, but come on.
You could have a scenario where Andrew Scott becomes the first openly gay actor to win playing a gay character, where Ruth Madeley becomes the second disabled actress to win playing a disabled character (with Marlee Matlin being the first and only) in Being Heumann. Oscar voters, especially the new ones, seem to want to be moved not just by the performance but by “the story.”
There is no other performance that has this level of emotional heft. I guess we’ll see but for now, lock it in.
