NextGen Oscarwatcher – Initial takeaways from The Telluride Film Festival

My time in Telluride, Colorado for the year has come to a close, and with that, I have seen ten films, some more prevalent in the minds of Oscar pundits and followers than others, but a noteworthy experience, nonetheless. Perhaps most fascinatingly, as the subtitle suggests, the more the season has adapted and changed, the more it has somehow stayed the same, at least according to this writer.

The Best Picture Race Remains The Odyssey’s to Lose

Call me biased, or stubborn, but after being blessed with essentially every major festival film this weekend (McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine, Los Javis’ La Bola Negra, and Jesse Eisenberg’s The Debut), there was just nothing that made me question whether or not Nolan’s film is in a good place to leap to the stage. It’s the biggest film of the year in some ways, the most significant and unanimously praised, with a likely win at the PGA and the DGA (perhaps even SAG), it seems virtually unstoppable. It is the year of the “populist film” and going with one so many saw and ultimately connected with just seems too undeniable at this moment in history.

The Steak eaters have their fair share

Two films that really stuck out to me for the film festival were Eisenberg’s The Debut, and McDonagh’s Wild Horse Nine, which very much appeal to the older demographic of filmgoers. Both movies feature veteran, well-respected actors who are giving it their very all, with Malkovich and Moore being dubbed as “new frontrunners” who could very well win. Both films are safe in the Best Picture ten, and anyone doubting them needs to seriously reconsider what the lineup ultimately will feature. Both of these films will likely receive major festival audience awards, boosting their presence overall.

International voters and the “New Academy”

Seeing the two most highly discussed international films of Mungiu’s Fjord and Los Javis’ La Bola Negra really showed how daring, ambitious cinema is what people ultimately want. The former’s provocative story of an intolerant society, and the latter’s daring look at Queer culture in the form of celebration are both commendable efforts that should be celebrated by those who experience them. Whether or not the Academy responds to either of them remains to be seen.

Nathan Fielder and Lance Oppenheim Steal the Show

Fielder and Oppenheim’s You Can See Everything was the major TBA screening, and it was an astonishing piece of filmmaking. It’s a documentary that lingers with all who watch it; its three-hour runtime sitting with the viewer, and its themes and the dissection of those concepts remain ever-present. An Oscar campaign is one that is deserved for something this daring, and it will happen.

Oscar Predictions for week of September 8

Not much to note of, but if I had to make a few changes or acknowledge some “key race alerts”

Best Actor and Best Actress are true tossups, the former a three (or even four if you count Cruise) race between Damon, Malkovich, and Scott, I lean towards the former simply because I believe The Odyssey is our Best Picture winner, while Actress is now a real race between Moore and Navarrette. My better judgmenet suggests its Moore, but predicting a film like The Debut to win two acting Oscars (a big accomplishment) for a film that may or may not be a top tier contender seems a bit premature. Tough races all around.
You Can See Everything is now in International Feature over 14^th
The Debut now has a song title, so that has been altered

Without further adieu, here they are

Best Picture

The Odyssey
Wild Horse Nine
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Project Hail Mary
Digger
Obsession
Dune: Part Three
The Debut
The Invite
Fjord

(alts: Ink, Misty Green, Elsinore, The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Disclosure Day, Werwulf, Behemoth!)

Best Director

Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Alejandro G. Iñarritu, Digger
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

(alts: Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary, Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day)

Best Actor

Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Andrew Scott, Elsinore
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Tom Cruise, Digger
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

(alts: Sebastian Stan, Fjord Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!, John Turturro The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jaafar Jackson, Michael)

Best Actress

Inde Navarrette, Obsession
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
Sandra Hüller, Rose
Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea

(alts: Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann Renate Reinsve, Fjord Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning, Sandra Hüller, Fatherland, Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day )

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Giamatti, The Debut
John Goodman, Digger
Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
John Leguizamo, The Odyssey

(alts: Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra Riz Ahmed, Digger, Willem Dafoe, Werwulf)

Best Supporting Actress

Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Olivia Colman, Elsinore
Samantha Morton, The Odyssey
Penélope Cruz, The Invite

(Alts: Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine Sandra Hüller, Digger Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden or Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary, Samantha Morton, The Odyssey )

Best Original Screenplay