It’s not hard to see which films stand out right now.
The Odyssey (the frontrunner)
Project Hail Mary (what should be the challenger)
Wild Horse Nine (agreed-upon contender but not yet audience-tested)
Fjord (only truly challenging film of the year)
Obsession (box office phenom)
La Bola Negra (an original work of art)
The Debut (strong acting nominations lead the way)
The Invite (quietly one of the best films of the year)
That’s 8 so far that seem to be more or less headed for major consideration, though one or more of them might not get in. They need several hundred Academy voters putting their film at number one to get in. Actors are the biggest branch, which would seem to support films like The Invite and The Debut, but we also know progressive politics plays a part, supporting films like La Bola Negra.
The films to watch now aren’t the ones that will be shown at festivals, but the ones driven by a strong performance or a strong director. Tom Cruise in Digger, for instance. What is that movie? Is it good? Is Tom Cruise good? Will voters luxuriate in a film that demonizes the right people? Maybe. Probably.
Then there is Dune Part Three, and it would be unusual if the third installment did not get in after the first two did. That would bring our total to nine, with one slot open, if all of these films mentioned above actually get in.
Ink and Primetime both seem like solid films as well, for the “steak eaters” as they’re called. The mostly middle-aged white male majority that the Academy has worked so hard to subdue. Ink might not have something for voters to grab onto to rise to the top of the pile for a nomination. Primetime has Robert Pattinson’s performance, and if he’s a strong contender, he just might drag the film along with him. I’m trying to picture the Academy voter who would pick Primetime as their number one film.
My most anticipated would be: Chris Rock’s Misty Green and David Fincher’s The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth. Misty Green is starting to screen now, and reviews will be trickling in, but from the looks of it, it seems like one that stands apart from the rest. It looks like a genuinely interesting female lead who gets a full-spectrum human experience, rather than just filling a slot to keep the film compliant. Cliff Booth is Fincher, and he’s never made a bad film. So I’ll hold open the last two slots for these two films.
But right now, if you push aside the territorial critics and bloggers, you’ll see that only two movies so far define 2026: The Odyssey and Project Hail Mary.
Both films center on a male protagonist who goes on a journey. But that is where the comparison stops. Project Hail Mary is a genuine “hero’s journey” and includes all the necessary components.
It fits Project Hail Mary better than it does The Odyssey because Christopher Nolan never sets us up in the ordinary world, or any world we know. We are immediately thrust into the adventure, even though Homer’s The Odyssey is the template for the Hero’s Journey. But we aren’t caught up in the story the same way as with Project Hail Mary, which better illustrates why the Hero’s Journey is so effective.
What makes Project Hail Mary worth watching is that it touches the heart in a way few other films manage to do. Voters tend to vote with their heart. There should be a reason, or an urgency, to vote. Do I think these Academy members who are mostly woke and progressive will vote for a film like this on pure love? No, I don’t. Love to them, to most on the Left, is whether it conforms to their worldview and pushes the right “message.” That’s The Odyssey more than it is Project Hail Mary.
That said, audiences were swept away by The Odyssey, captivated by this wildly imaginative world Christopher Nolan built and filmed on IMAX. It feels unequivocal and ambitious in a way few films ever are. True that once Dune III comes out, it will be tested against that film for the crafts—visual effects, Costumes, Cinematography, etc. The Odyssey feels more “important” than Dune, though, since Christopher Nolan cast Elliot Page and Lupita Nyong’o, igniting a culture war that is as surefire a way to win as almost anything else.
So I can’t bet against The Odyssey, but Project Hail Mary is easily one of the best films of the year, whether the progressive, ideologically captured hive mind that dominates and controls The Oscars recognizes it or not. It was one of the few films that played in theaters that almost everyone loved.
Both are loved by critics and audiences, though The Odyssey has earned much more at the box office to become, it’s fair to say, a worldwide phenomenon.
If this awards race is healthy and the Oscars are working right, Project Hail Mary will join The Odyssey in the most nominations. If it isn’t well, Houston, we have a problem.
RT’s Jacqueline Coley has a rundown of the films they’re most excited about over at Rotten Tomatoes at the Telluride Film Festival.
I Play Rocky is absolutely one to watch out for, not just because the buzz on the street is that it’s really good, but also because it’s exactly the kind of film the hive mind of Film Twitter will want to dump on simply because it’s directed by Peter Farrelly (ya know, Green Book?). Not to mention Sly Stallone is a Trump friend and supporter. No doubt they will have their panties in a wad over that one but I’m looking forward to it.
I guess we can still say that whatever wins the Audience Award or places in the top three has a pretty good shot at a Best Picture nom. I think that’s still true, right?
Meanwhile, Sian Heder’s Being Heumann opened at Tiff and the reviews are decent- not as great as you would want them to be, but perhaps enough to push through a nod for the film’s lead. It has a 92% on Rotten Tomatoes.
He writes of Fjord:
Cristian Mungiu’s legal family drama presents every parent’s worst nightmare set against a relatable culture clash and panoramic Norwegian vistas. Mihai (Sebastian Stan) and Lisbet (Renate Reinsve) have recently moved from Romania, though the conservative religious upbringing they follow for their children doesn’t sit well with the progressive community around them. When the couple is suspected of child abuse, their five kids are taken away by child protective services. “Fjord” offers up a slew of moral dilemmas for its audience with no easy answers, and courtroom scenes honestly show both sides’ thought-provoking points for a gripping experience that doesn’t let up.
Big news broke in the last couple of days about the dangers of AI after an employee of Anthropic quit and then left a series of dramatic tweets saying AI would or could wipe out humanity in the next ten years.
As alarming as it sounds, it’s probably a slight exaggeration. In my view, AI’s real danger is not because of what might happen in America, but rather, what might happen if it is in the wrong hands. That really could destroy this country without a single bomb being dropped. So anyway, have a great weekend! Just kidding. What this does do, I think, is set up Luca Guadagnino’s Artificial in a somewhat better light. It legitimizes the hysteria around AI and people will now being much closer attention.
Then there is Aaron Sorkin’s The Social Reckoning about the dangers of Facebook, which, to be perfectly honest, when put up against the dangers of AI, seem a little like child’s play. These are scary times, to be sure. The algorithms, the formulas, the technology are all getting ahead of us, and we’re all just trying to keep up.
Over at Gold Derby, it’s mostly The Odyssey, except strangely, some people are actually predicting Wild Horse Nine to win. But my favorite list comes from Michael Musto:
From his lips to God’s ears.
Both the Oscar Expert and Scott Menzel have La Bola Negra winning.
I mean okay, I guess we can pretend there’s still an Oscar race. But I don’t think anything can beat The Odyssey. I guess we’ll see.
Here are my predictions
Best Picture
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Wild Horse Nine
Fjord
La Bola Negra
The Invite
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Obsession
Dune III
Elsinore
Alt. Digger, Ink, Primetime, Artificial, The Debut
Director
Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
David Fincher, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Los Javis, La Bola Negra
Alt. Christian Mungiu, FjordCurry Barker, Obsession, Denis Villeneuve, Dune III, Danny Boyle, Ink
Actor
Andrew Scott, Elsinore
Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Tom Cruise, Digger
Seth Rogen, The Invite
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Alt. Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary, Brad Pitt, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth, Guy Pearce, Ink
Actress
Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
Inde Navarette, Obsession
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
Alt. Renate Reinsve, Fjord
Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Debut
Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra
Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Edward Norton, The Invite
Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
Penelope Cruz, La Bola Negra
Carla Gugino, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Sandra Hüller, Digger
Penelope Cruz, The Invite
Original Screenplay
Wild Horse Nine
Misty Green
Fjord
Obsession
Ink
Adapted Screenplay
The Invite
Project Hail Mary
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
The Odyssey
La Bola Negra
Editing
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Wild Horse Nine
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
La Bola Negra
Casting
The Odyssey
The Debut
Digger
La Bola Negra
Primetime
Visual Effects
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Werwulf
Disclosure Day
Cinematography
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Werwulf
La Bolla Negra
Costumes
Werwulf
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
Ink
Sense and Sensibility
Makeup and Hair
Digger
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
La Bola Negra
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Production Design
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
Project Hail Mary
Werwulf
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
