NextGen Oscarwatcher – The Power of the Crowd-Pleaser

It’s interesting to experience a film festival (in this case, Telluride) and then witness both the conclusion of the Venice Film Festival and the occurrence of the Toronto International Film Festival- one that highlights the auteur-driven nature of these events, and the other that focuses more on the populist films that appeal to the masses. NYFF, on top of all of them, serves as a charcuterie board, so to speak of a number of different films ranging from fairly niche to grand in appeal. It’s a system that has been notably apparent for years at this rate, and no one seems to have any gripes about it, so it remains even now.

This was very evident in the premiere of Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky this weekend in Toronto. So many, including yours truly, never considered it to be an Oscar prospect because of the way the industry seemingly responded to the success of Green Book after it had won (just look at The Greatest Beer Run Ever), and thought it would be a biopic for some steak eaters that would simply be put aside. Nevertheless, despite mixed reviews from some critics, the initial reactions from TIFF seem to point towards a true crowd-pleaser. Trying to find the “film” at TIFF is difficult, with some years being harder to define than others (last year’s fest biggest film was Barker’s Obsession, which didn’t release until this year), and 2024 didn’t have a notable world premiere outside of Mike Flanagan’s The Life of Chuck, which came out in 2025 to little traction.

It’s too early to say where Farrelly’s film will land, but it certainly proved it has an audience and should play a factor. In a festival that is still early and seemingly light on major premieres, a “biopic” about the creation of an iconic film and franchise can go far with the right circumstances. Screenplay, editing, acting, and Best Picture are all seemingly on the table. In addition to I Play Rocky, other films that TIFF has seen and has some thoughts on include Chris Rock’s Misty Green, which seems entirely centered on Rosalind Eleazar’s commanding performance, with others like Susanna White’s Prima Facie still remaining to premiere.

Where the BP Race Stands Now

As far as I can tell, the Best Picture race is largely defined by mass appeal, though critical acclaim remains undeniably present. Nolan’s The Odyssey, Barker’s Obsession, Lord and Miller’s Project Hail Mary, Farrelly’s I Play Rocky, and, sight unseen, Villeneuve’s Dune: Part Three, bring people to the theaters, unite them in a way, and signal an industry that is, at the very least, solidifying a comeback.

We will know more about where the race stands following the TIFF awards a week from now, but the importance of the “crowd-pleaser narrative,” as some people have noted, can’t be discarded.

Oscar Predictions for Week of 14 September 2026

A few important changes to note

Due to lack of festival presence and the rising strength of The Invite, I have for the moment swapped out Juliette Binoche for Queen At Sea and put in Olivia Wilde for The Invite
It is unclear whether I Play Rocky is an Original or Adapted Screenplay, as some have clarified it as the latter, but there is no source it is based on; for now I am leaving it out of both until there is clarification on what it is based on, etc
I Play Rocky in Best Film Editing over I am fairly close to putting the film into Best Picture in addition to these two categories, but it’s going to depend on whether it wins the coveted TIFF Audience Award and if it can sustain the initial reactions.
I have taken Disclosure Day out of Best Sound and replaced it with Hope in the latter
I have put Ray Gunn into Animated Feature over Forgotten Island
I have put NAZA into Documentary Feature (the #1 slot specifically) over To Hold A Mountain

Without further discussion, here are the updated predictions

Best Picture

The Odyssey
Wild Horse Nine
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Project Hail Mary
Digger
Obsession
Dune: Part Three
The Debut
The Invite
Fjord

(alts: I Play Rocky, Ink, Misty Green, Elsinore, The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Disclosure Day, Werwulf, Behemoth!)

Best Director

Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Alejandro G. Iñarritu, Digger
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord

(alts: Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary, Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day)

Best Actor

Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Andrew Scott, Elsinore
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Tom Cruise, Digger
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary

(alts: Sebastian Stan, Fjord Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!, John Turturro The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jaafar Jackson, Michael)

Best Actress

Inde Navarrette, Obsession
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Sandra Hüller, Rose
Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
Olivia Wilde, The Invite

(alts: Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea Cynthia Erivo, Prima Facie Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann Renate Reinsve, Fjord Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning, Sandra Hüller, Fatherland, Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day )

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Giamatti, The Debut
John Goodman, Digger
Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
John Leguizamo, The Odyssey

(alts: Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra Riz Ahmed, Digger, Willem Dafoe, Werwulf)

Best Supporting Actress

Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Olivia Colman, Elsinore
Samantha Morton, The Odyssey
Penélope Cruz, The Invite

(Alts: Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine Sandra Hüller, Digger Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden or Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary, Samantha Morton, The Odyssey )

Best Original Screenplay