Nextgen Oscarwatcher – How Film Festivals and The Traction That Follows Influence the Oscar Race

Well it’s been quite a week regarding the Award Season, with the Emmys having occurred last week, TIFF concluding (and anointing its respective winners), and a whole lotta whispers regarding Iñárritu’s Digger, which has screened for a select few critics and suffice to say, in traditional Oscar hive fashion, has people dictating how the race might go, and the rest following suit.

The Digger Discourse

Digger as a film has been one of the biggest mysteries of the entire year, so much of it is shrouded in secrecy, with Tom Cruise being the biggest sell for it (despite, and often in actual spite of, its premise). Seeing the top pundits (we all know who) just ever so slightly change predictions, and the community react, really puts into perspective where we are. The Oscar race (or the discourse, really), especially this early out, is driven by a select few, and the question becomes whether it really has any influence whatsoever. The voters will like what they like, and it is only until it is all said and done that one really infers how insular it is this far out. Nevertheless, if the film is even possibly lacking critics, audience, and possibly industry support, that’s an uphill climb if one had to be called out as such. Foreboding, to say the least, but too early to make any definitive statements currently (though sometimes it’s best to jump on these conclusions when they seem ever present). It’ll be crucial to witness going forward, nevertheless.

TIFF keeps the Black Ball Rolling

Los Jovis’ La Bola Negra prevailed and took home the TIFF audience award, solidifying it’s placement not only in the Best Picture Race, but in the Winning conversation. It’s a swing that is admirable even to those who don’t fully vibe with it, it’s message being one that resonates with a large sway of people, being compared to that of a 90s Miramax film, or one of those overly Oscar-friendly projects that would win back in the day. What is still holding it back, and what could still be remedied, is its label as a foreign-language film, a Netflix property, and it’s appeal with the steak-eaters of the Academy (though some will argue its audience awards should silence some of those concerns). It’s not that the film isn’t a strong contender; rather, it is facing a monolith in the presence of Christopher Nolan’s The Odyssey, which very much has made its claim to going all the way with very little opposition or a clear “reason” to vote against it.

Other placements include, perhaps amusingly, Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky and Siân Heder’s Being Heumann, which shows that, in spite of whatever visceral or dislike certain people have for their Best Picture wins, there is still very clear reverence for these two individuals. One can’t underestimate how appealing these two films are to a large contingent of Academy voters, and going the distance to a nom is very plausible. The international people’s choice winner was Simon Stone’s Elsinore, solidifying Andrew Scott’s role as someone who could not only land a nom but also a potential win.

TIFF offered a mixed picture of just how controlled the Oscar race is. La Bola Negra prevailed, clearly running a strong campaign with strong fundamentals and genuine persuasion behind it, though I Play Rocky and Being Heumann winning, especially over Eisenberg’s The Debut and Jordan Firstman’s Club Kid suggest the normie vote is still very much there, if consistently in a battle with the young, hip side of TIFF.

Oscar Predictions for Week of 21 September 2026

With TIFF concluding and the festival season leading into NYFF, there are a couple of changes I am making to what is listed before.

Alejandro G. Iñárritu’s Digger out of Best Picture, replaced with Peter Farrelly’s I Play Rocky
Alejandro G. Iñarritu’s Digger out of Best Director, replaced with Denis Villeneuve for Dune: Part Three
Julianne Moore is now in the #1 slot for Best Actress for The Debut over Inde Navarrette for Obsession, but predicting The Debut for two acting wins seems a bit excessive at the moment, but it’s too early to say.
Rosalind Eleazar out of Best Actress for Misty Green, replaced with Ruth Madeley for Being Heumann
John Goodman out of Best Supporting Actor for Digger, replaced with Guitarricadelafuente for La Bola Negra
I Play Rocky has been moved into Original Screenplay over Digger
All of a Sudden has been moved into Adapted Screenplay over Ink
Forgotten Island has been moved into Animated Feature over Iron Boy
The Debut has been moved into Best Casting over Digger
Minotaur has been submitted by France for International Feature and is thus in the five over Fatherland
Dune: Part Three has been moved into Best Makeup and Hairstyling over Wicker

Alas, here they are

Best Picture

The Odyssey
La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Wild Horse Nine
Project Hail Mary
Dune: Part Three
The Debut
Obsession
The Invite
I Play Rocky
Fjord

(alts: Digger, Ink, Elsinore, The Social Reckoning, All of a Sudden, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Disclosure Day, Werwulf, Behemoth!)

Best Director

Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Javier Ambrossi and Javier Calvo, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Cristian Mungiu, Fjord
Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three

(alts: Alejandro G. Iñárritu, Digger Paweł Pawlikowski, Fatherland, Christopher Miller and Phil Lord for Project Hail Mary, Denis Villeneuve, Dune: Part Three Steven Spielberg, Disclosure Day)

Best Actor

Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Andrew Scott, Elsinore
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
Tom Cruise, Digger

(alts: Sebastian Stan, Fjord Brad Pitt, The Adventures of Cliff Booth, Pedro Pascal, Behemoth!, John Turturro The Only Living Pickpocket in New York, Jaafar Jackson, Michael)

Best Actress

Inde Navarrette, Obsession
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Sandra Hüller, Rose
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
Olivia Wilde, The Invite

(alts: Juliette Binoche, Queen At Sea Renate Reinsve, Fjord Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning, Sandra Hüller, Fatherland, Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day )

Best Supporting Actor

Paul Giamatti, The Debut
Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra
Steve Buscemi, Wild Horse Nine
Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
John Leguizamo, The Odyssey

(alts: John Goodman, Riz Ahmed, Digger, Willem Dafoe, Werwulf)

Best Supporting Actress

Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
Penélope Cruz, La Bola Negra (The Black Ball)
Olivia Colman, Elsinore
Samantha Morton, The Odyssey
Penélope Cruz, The Invite

(Alts: Mariana Di Girolamo, Wild Horse Nine Sandra Hüller, Digger Tao Okamoto, All of a Sudden or Sandra Hüller, Project Hail Mary, Samantha Morton, The Odyssey )

Best Original Screenplay