You used to find Best Actor by following Best Picture. Best Actress, however, didn’t usually go that way, since it was hard to find strong roles for women in Best Picture contenders. But things changed after 2020, obviously, and the last Best Actress winner without a Best Picture nomination was in 2021, when Jessica Chastain won for The Eyes of Tammy Faye. To be fair, none of the nominees had a corresponding Best Picture nomination, so that would be true no matter who won.
Since then, however, they’ve all gone with it. Let’s look at 1996 onward:
1996: Susan Sarandon – Dead Man Walking
1997: Frances McDormand – Fargo
1998: Helen Hunt – As Good as It Gets
1999: Gwyneth Paltrow – Shakespeare in Love
2000: Hilary Swank – Boys Don’t Cry
2001: Julia Roberts – Erin Brockovich
2002: Halle Berry – Monster’s Ball
2003: Nicole Kidman – The Hours
2004: Charlize Theron – Monster
2005: Hilary Swank – Million Dollar Baby
2006: Reese Witherspoon – Walk the Line
2007: Helen Mirren – The Queen
2008: Marion Cotillard – La Vie en Rose
Expanded ballot:
2009: Kate Winslet – The Reader
2010: Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
2011: Natalie Portman – Black Swan
2012: Meryl Streep – The Iron Lady
2013: Jennifer Lawrence – Silver Linings Playbook
2014: Cate Blanchett – Blue Jasmine
2015: Julianne Moore – Still Alice
2016: Brie Larson – Room
2017: Emma Stone – La La Land
2018: Frances McDormand – Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri
2019: Olivia Colman – The Favourite
2020: Renée Zellweger – Judy
2021: Frances McDormand – Nomadland
2022: Jessica Chastain – The Eyes of Tammy Faye
2023: Michelle Yeoh – Everything Everywhere All at Once
2024: Emma Stone – Poor Things
2025: Mikey Madison – Anora
2026: Jessie Buckley – Hamnet
Obviously, things have dramatically changed since the Great Awokening of 2020 and the influx of new voters in the Academy, many of whom are female to change the demographics. That has had, I’d say, a fairly dramatic effect. This is one of the reasons they don’t want to shrink the ballot back down to five, which they really should do. They like having more representation across all groups.
It is not absolutely necessary that the Best Actress be in a Best Picture contender, but you’d think they’d get in, given the ten slots and the uptick of movies by and about women. But there are certain circumstances where this might be the case. I’d submit Ruth Madeley for Being Heumann as a possibility, considering she will be disabled, and but for Marlee Matlin, that kind of representation is rare in this category.
Another possibility is that the Academy would like to improve its history of only one Black actress winning in almost 100 years of Oscar history, which might mean that, even without a Best Picture nomination, Rosalind Eleazar could win for Misty Green. It’s possible. The third way is if a beloved veteran who hasn’t yet won is up for the prize, like Julianne Moore in Still Alice, for instance. Moore is the favorite to win her second Oscar, but it wouldn’t carry the same urgency to vote, since she’s already won.
The pundits have decided it’s Moore, but I’m not so sure, since I haven’t seen the movie. I don’t know if it is a mass-formation thing, a Telluride High thing, or if it’s real. I will soon find out. Right now, my attention is more focused on two other performances. One is Inde Navarette for Obsession (she’d win in supporting), and Olivia Wilde for her absolutely brilliant performance in The Invite, which she also directs and appears to be a surefire Best Picture contender.
This has only happened twice in all of Oscar history and only for Best Actor – Laurence Olivier in Hamlet and Roberto Benigni in Life is Beautiful. So Wilde would make history if she won, but it is not outside the realm of possibility, given how good she is in the part. I still haven’t stopped thinking about that movie, all of the performances, but especially the two leads, Wilde and Seth Rogen.
And then there is the “It” girl, Inde Navarrette, who is oh so brilliant in Obsession. It is a wildly unpredictable performance, funny and tragic and grotesque. She just is a whole universe of conflicting emotions all in one person. The entire movie rests on her performance, and she carries it well. The only slight problem is how graphic the violence is and whether that will turn off voters. It might. Demi Moore may have lost for The Substance for that reason. But I don’t know; Navarrette is young and vibrant, and that’s the kind of actress that often wins, especially a first-time nominee.
Then there is Sandra Hüller, who is having quite the year. She is a brilliant supporting player in Project Hail Mary and is in Digger and Fatherland, but in Rose, she has a real shot at a nomination and, who knows, maybe even a win, though I’d suspect that’s a long shot.
I generally judge Best Actress using three rules:
Likability of Star
Likability of Role
Likability of Movie
It is ideal to have all three. If a film is nominated for Best Picture, that settles the movie debate. Then, you move on to who the star is, how well people know her and whether she plays a character people like or even love. Love is a big one in this category. If you fall hard for her, she’ll likely win.
The trick for unknown actresses is working the circuit, getting people to know who they are as Marion Cotillard did the year she won for La Vie En Rose. You show up everywhere looking pretty, shaking hands, making friends – exhausting and borderline soul-crushing but it gets the dirty job done.
Obviously, everyone knows Julianne Moore and Olivia Wilde. They don’t have to worry about whether people know them or not. It then gets down to how much people like the roles they play, do they root for them? Do they care about them? Do they remember them? Does the character still resonate long after you see the film?
If the answer is yes to all of that, you have a winner on your hands. But wins can also be driven by other things. With Ruth Madeley, for instance, you’re looking at potentially a situation where a person in a wheelchair rolls on stage to accept an award. Do you think that will produce a standing ovation? If you guessed yes then you are correct. That is the kind of thing that can become undeniable — but I have to see the movie first before I can make that call.
The critics will be pushing Virginie Efira for All of a Sudden. She already has a massive push by the pundits and you know how that goes. They can will it into existence. Perhaps it’s one of the best films of the year. I do not yet know, but she is “in the conversation,” as they say.
Other actresses in the running include:
Emily Blunt, Disclosure Day
Mikey Madison, The Social Reckoning
Renate Reinsve, Fjord
Carrie Coon, The Liberation
Jessica Lange, Long Day’s Journey Into Night
Zendaya, The Drama
Daisy Edgar-Jones, Sense and Sensibility
It could be wide open or it could be fixed. It’s hard to tell at this stage. At Gold Derby, it’s Julianne Moore’s to lose and that might be the case.
I have to make this short because my dog has to go to the vet. So here are my predictions for this week:
Best Picture
The Odyssey
La Bola Negra
Project Hail Mary
Wild Horse Nine
Fjord
I Play Rocky
The Invite
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Obsession
Dune III
Alt. Elsinore, Club Kid, Digger, Ink, Primetime, Artificial, The Debut
Director
Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Los Javis, La Bola Negra
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
David Fincher, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Alt. Christian Mungiu, FjordCurry Barker, Obsession, Denis Villeneuve, Dune III, Danny Boyle, Ink
Actor
Andrew Scott, Elsinore
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Tom Cruise, Digger
Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky
Alt. Seth Rogen, The InviteRyan Gosling, Project Hail Mary, Brad Pitt, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth, Guy Pearce, Ink
Actress
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Inde Navarette, Obsession
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green
Alt. Sandra Huller, Rose, Renate Reinsve, Fjord
Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Debut
Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra
Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Edward Norton, The Invite
Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
Penelope Cruz, La Bola Negra
Carla Gugino, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Sandra Hüller, Digger
Penelope Cruz, The Invite
Original Screenplay
Wild Horse Nine
Obsession
Club Kid
I Play Rocky
Fjord
Adapted Screenplay
La Bola Negra
The Invite
Project Hail Mary
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
The Odyssey
Editing
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
La Bola Negra
Wild Horse Nine
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Casting
The Odyssey
Club Kid
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
La Bola Negra
Primetime
Visual Effects
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Werwulf
Disclosure Day
Cinematography
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Werwulf
La Bolla Negra
Costumes
Werwulf
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
Ink
Sense and Sensibility
Makeup and Hair
Digger
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
La Bola Negra
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Production Design
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
Project Hail Mary
Werwulf
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
