As the Oscars head for their century mark- 100 years of giving out awards- it might be useful to look at where they are now. What place do they hold in our culture now? Are they still relevant? What does the future look like?
I have been covering the Oscar race since 1999. When I first got here, there were no Oscar blogs. The Oscar coverage was limited to the trades, sometimes the New York and Los Angeles Times, and Entertainment Weekly, where Dave Karger reigned supreme and set up what I think was the model for modern-day Oscar coverage.
The OGs were Anne Thompson, Pete Hammond, Kenneth Turan, Roger Ebert, and of course, Tom O’Neil. But to me, Dave Karger was the gold standard. His predictions were what we all built on in the early days, even waiting patiently for the print edition of Entertainment Weekly to come out so we could read them.
Back then, of course, we read the race. We did not shape the race. We didn’t go to film festivals and find Oscar contenders as we did at Fashion Week. None of that was necessary because the film industry was so thriving that the selection was huge. Everyone saw the movies. Everyone knew which movies were the best so that when Best Picture came around, most people would agree on what would win.
But people like me and others who launched Oscar sites began to believe that the Oscars should be “better.” Their choices should be more critically acclaimed. When I started, it was because I questioned why Citizen Kane was the best film ever made yet didn’t win Best Picture. It took me 26 years, but I finally know the answer to that. Citizen Kane was too controversial, too much of a threat to William Randolph Hearst and, honestly, not uplifting and feel-good like How Green Was My Valley.
John Ford was an industry titan and insider. Orson Welles was a young upstart causing too much trouble. The Academy had little chance of giving him the Best Picture Oscar. Gladiator was the first movie to win Best Picture after I started, right at the turn of the millennium. This year, it will likely be The Odyssey, and given that, some might not even realize what happened between then and now.
But what I know about the Oscars now is what happened to them when Barack Obama won in 2008, then Trump won in 2016, and what happened in 2020 with COVID and the Great Awokening. All of these choke points changed the Oscars dramatically.
Obama’s rise split big-budget Hollywood IPs and superhero movies from a niche market for “good people doing good things” art-house movies. Obama’s first year, the Academy expanded to ten Best Picture nominees. If they were staying on network television, reducing Best Picture to five from ten right now would be a power move but since they’re moving to YouTube I doubt they will do that.
These two Hollywoods tracked side by side, with Hollywood making shitloads of money and the Oscars shrinking back into the rarefied air of the elites as they mingled with the Democrats to create an enlightened society of the upper class. Audiences didn’t matter because the box office didn’t matter. The Oscars then had the luxury of choosing what they liked rather than what did well at the box office.
Here is what that period looked like:
Trump’s win in 2016 caused mass panic throughout the industry. It would change everything. Moonlight would beat La La Land, which would be the target of a mob and called “racist,” which had an effect on the Academy’s voting. The same thing happened the next year, when the target was Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, and then Green Book would be the apocalypse that would forever change the Academy. It was like the second election of Trump.
The screenwriter was doxxed, and Peter Farrelly was swarmed and doxxed. Even Viggo Mortensen was hit. It was nuts. People like me who pushed back also became targets. For the Academy, however, it meant adding new members after the Oscars, so the #White hashtag hit social media around 2014.
That looked something like this:
The surge lasted throughout the Trump presidency and then cooled down. The effect was a much more international voting body, much less invested in the business of Hollywood itself and more inclined toward a global community of ideologically inclined artists, hipsters, and activists. Lots of women added, lots of people of color. Right now, the demographic, according to Google AI:
Still quite white and male, but these changes have impacted voting, I’d say.
The Golden Globes were also swarmed and canceled, and it looked like they might not get back in business after being hit with numerous charges of racism and corruption. Penske Media then bought them, which also owns Deadline, The Hollywood Reporter, Indiewire, Rolling Stone, Variety, and Gold Derby. It is a monopoly, but no one cares enough to bust it up. For their part, the HFPA is embroiled in a civil war. Their latest press release:
And someday, if anyone tells the real story of what happened to the Oscars and Hollywood after 2016, they’ll tell my story- someone who was a pioneer in the industry but whose outspoken, rebellious nature turned me into an accused and condemned witch as the community of Hollywood formed a hive mind and decided that half the country were their sworn enemies.
It’s all been very bizarre and I need to get started on a memoir to make sure it is all not forgotten because who will tell this story except me?
At any rate, what does this year tell us about where the Oscars are now? They are headed for their 100th year, and still no black director, after all of that, has won. Only one black actress has won for Best Actress. International films are now mainstreamed into the Best Picture race, as are streaming platforms like Netflix and Apple. So far, the latter is the only streamer to win Best Picture. Netflix continues to try for the big prize.
Director David Fincher gave Netflix validity and prestige with the brilliant Mindhunter, which helped invent binge-watching. Now, of course, Kevin Spacey is canceled, but that show was proof enough that Fincher had transformed Netflix into something much more than the little red DVD envelope that sailed through the mail and killed Blockbuster (which had killed the little mom-and-pop video stores — adapt or die).
The Fincher phase of Netflix will be the stuff of history books. From animation to feature films and to long-form shows like Mindhunter, it’s hard to imagine what Netflix will be now without him. But if I were them, I’d put all my chips behind The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth because there is a story there. Fincher, despite his reputation, is among the most humble directors working in Hollywood. He never sings his own praises. But this being his last movie for Netflix under contract (he may make more in the future as an independent), I’d say that’s a pretty good Oscar story.
It is not lost on me that some of the names that will swirl around this year are part of recent Oscar history, like Peter Farrelly. I guess this will help us figure out whether the self-righteous mob still has Hollywood’s balls in a vice or whether freedom reigns. I hope the Paramount merger helps balance an industry still gripped by politics. Who knows. Hope springs eternal.
It’s good that The Odyssey is likely winning. That shows a healthy industry and a healthy Oscars. It might mean that bigger is back. It might not. I’m not sure I buy the idea that voters will choose an international film from Netflix to beat The Odyssey. But honestly, nothing would surprise me at this point.
Not all the movies have been seen yet. There are still more to come before we can fully assess this year. But at least you know where you are in recent history as we head for Year 100.
Here are my predictions for this week:
Best Picture
The Odyssey
La Bola Negra
Project Hail Mary
Wild Horse Nine
Fjord
I Play Rocky
The Invite
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Obsession
Dune III
Alt. Elsinore, Club Kid, Digger, Ink, Primetime, Artificial, The Debut
Director
Christopher Nolan, The Odyssey
Los Javis, La Bola Negra
Martin McDonagh, Wild Horse Nine
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
David Fincher, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Alt. Christian Mungiu, Fjord, Curry Barker, Obsession, Denis Villeneuve, Dune III, Danny Boyle, Ink
Actor
Andrew Scott, Elsinore
John Malkovich, Wild Horse Nine
Matt Damon, The Odyssey
Ryan Gosling, Project Hail Mary
Anthony Ippolito, I Play Rocky
Alt. Seth Rogen, The Invite, Tom Cruise, Digger, Brad Pitt, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth, Guy Pearce, Ink
Actress
Ruth Madeley, Being Heumann
Julianne Moore, The Debut
Inde Navarette, Obsession
Olivia Wilde, The Invite
Sandra Hüller, Rose
Alt.Rosalind Eleazar, Misty Green, Renate Reinsve, Fjord
Supporting Actor
Paul Giamatti, The Debut
Guitarricadelafuente, La Bola Negra
Sam Rockwell, Wild Horse Nine
Jeremy Strong, The Social Reckoning
Edward Norton, The Invite
Supporting Actress
Anne Hathaway, The Odyssey
Penelope Cruz, La Bola Negra
Carla Gugino, The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Sandra Hüller, Digger
Penelope Cruz, The Invite
Original Screenplay
Wild Horse Nine
Obsession
Club Kid
I Play Rocky
Fjord
Adapted Screenplay
La Bola Negra
The Invite
Project Hail Mary
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
The Odyssey
Editing
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
La Bola Negra
Wild Horse Nine
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Casting
The Odyssey
Club Kid
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
La Bola Negra
Primetime
Visual Effects
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey
Project Hail Mary
Werwulf
Disclosure Day
Cinematography
Dune: Part Three
The Odyssey
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Werwulf
La Bolla Negra
Costumes
Werwulf
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
Ink
Sense and Sensibility
Makeup and Hair
Digger
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
La Bola Negra
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
Production Design
The Odyssey
Dune: Part Three
Project Hail Mary
Werwulf
The Further Mis-Adventures of Cliff Booth
