On the eve of the New York and AFI Film festivals, the Oscar race is turning out to be somewhat of a mystery to people tasked with figuring it out. Many are simply waiting for all of the cards to be played before assessing the scene. In truth, films can’t really be judged in terms of their “Oscar potential” until they’ve run the gauntlet of critic screenings, early awards, industry screenings and that teeny tiny window over the holidays when Oscar voters select their nominees.
First, a quick primer on how Best Picture is tabulated. From around 1945 until 2009, every voting member of the Academy had five slots to fill for Best Picture and the Academy named five Best Picture nominees for the year. Things were different then. The Academy has changed in two dramatic ways since then. The first major change occurred when they pushed their date up a month, from Oscar Nights that came in late Nrsch or April to the current timeframe 4 or 5 weeks earlier. This all but eliminated a late December releases as potential Best Picture winners (although nominees can still be plucked from this late breaking release date). And second, they expanded the nomination ballot for members in 2009 and 2010 to ten and had ten nominees. As we keep writing every year, this allowed the Academy members much more freedom to choose from different types of films rather than strictly “Oscar movies.” If you have ten slots to fill you might put down an animated feature, maybe a foreign language, maybe a movie — gasp — directed by a woman.
Beginning in 2011 and up to this year, the Academy made a third change, reducing the number of nominating slots to back to five while still allowing for more than five films to be named as Best Picture nominees. No one knows how many there will be (there were always 9 until last year, when there were 8). What we do know? The diversity with which the Academy once seemed to aspire for Best Picture has lately tended to become limited to the “Oscar movie” once again. Only now we get more than 5 of them named. There wasn’t and isn’t a lot of diversity in voters’ tastes. They pick five and those five tend to be important films, or wildly entertaining films, or a make-good film by an otherwise washed up actor/director. Usually they are films about heroes, unlikely, failed or high achieving. They are usually driven by a male protag. That male protag tends to lead the way when sussing out which films are leading. Sometimes it isn’t a protag at all but a Big Idea. That Big Idea can propel a movie through the entire race. Though, it should be said, that those movies tend to be driven by men too, with women as supporting players.
That is what we talk about when we talk about the “Oscar movie”: male or multiple males and some females driving an idea, or a character overcoming obstacles and achieving something great (The King’s Speech, Slumdog Millionaire, The Artist, Birdman). Every so often a film comes along that is “important” and groundbreaking and ultimately too big to ignore (12 Years a Slave, Titanic, Schindler’s List). The last time a film with a female in the lead won Best Picture was in 2002, with Chicago. 13 years ago.
So how do we go about finding out strongest contenders this year? We have to ask these questions: can you sit anyone down in front of it and they will get it on first viewing, at least thoroughly enjoy if not love it? Does it have something important going on, a big idea that makes voters feel like their vote counts for something? Does it revolve around someone overcoming obstacles and achieving something great?
I did pretty well last year predicting the nominees. I borrowed a little from Variety’s Kris Tapley who aces the cinematography category and thinks better than I do overall in the techs. I tried really hard to remove my own heart from the equation (with the exception of Gone Girl). This is how I did at Gold Derby:
78% CORRECT (96 of 123)
Sasha Stone (Awards Daily)
76% CORRECT (94 of 123)
Steve Pond (The Wrap)
Paul Sheehan (Gold Derby)
75% CORRECT (93 of 123)
Tom O’Neil (Gold Derby)
74% CORRECT (91 of 123)
Scott Feinberg (Hollywood Reporter)
Glenn Whipp (L.A. Times)
71% CORRECT (87 of 123)
Pete Hammond (Deadline)
Mary Milliken (Reuters)
Claudia Puig (USA Today)
Christopher Rosen (Huffington Post)
70% CORRECT (86 of 123)
Nicole Sperling (Entertainment Weekly)
Anne Thompson (Thompson on Hollywood)
69% CORRECT (85 of 123)
Edward Douglas (Coming Soon)
Thom Geier
Michael Hogan (Vanity Fair)
Tariq Khan (Fox News)
Michael Musto (Out.com)
Peter Travers (Rolling Stone)
67% CORRECT (82 of 123)
Susan Wloszczyna (RogerEbert.com)
66% CORRECT (81 of 123)
Thelma Adams (Thelmadams.com)
Matt Atchity (Rotten Tomatoes)
Jenelle Riley (Variety)
65% CORRECT (80 of 123)
Scott Mantz (Access Hollywood)
Kevin Polowy (Yahoo)
63% CORRECT (77 of 123)
Keith Simanton (IMDB)
Jeffrey Wells (Hollywood Elsewhere)
Unfortunately, last year we saw the difference between a five nomination ballot with the Academy and what might have been with a ten nomination ballot at the Producers Guild. The difference was that the three darkest PFA movies -(Nightcrawler, Foxcatcher and Gone Girl) were left out by the Academy and mostly heroic films about heroic people — tight character dramas about the human condition — triumphed with a five slot ballot. You always have to THINK FIVE, not THINK TEN.
Whatever your criteria for choosing, ultimately you will have to aim for the films most voters will put down as one of their top five most favorite of the year. That usually excludes animated and genre films. Films that are emotionally moving or “important” tend to take precedent over films that were “fun” or profitable or simply entertaining. It is the job of publicists to make their film look big enough to be considered one of those five choices.
Anne Thompson always says you build Best Picture branch by branch. That is, if enough branches choose the film because they like the film there is a good chance that film will show up on their individual category ballot too. There’s crossover. That’s why Selma’s inclusion was unique last year. It wasn’t tied to any other major category nomination. That means it got in despite it not being a top-5 favorite by the actors, the writers, or the directors. It got in because a lot of people who were looking at the big picture put it high enough on their ballots to make it count. Every other Best Picture nominee was tied to other nominations:
That may or may not happen this year but it’s certainly possible. Either way, for Best Picture we’re still looking for branch by branch favorites. Having the major categories behind a movie helps it greatly getting in. Acting, writing, directing, editing are all important. But if you also have cinematography, sound, score, maybe visual effects, then you have a powerhouse entering the race.
What are the powerhouses so far in the first half of the year? Let’s go through them.
Spotlight (Telluride)
Important because it is about real journalism back when such a thing still existed, and is about taking on the powerful Catholic Church and everyone who helped cover up the abuse.
Probable nominations: Picture, Director (Tom McCarthy), Screenplay (Tom McCarthy), Best Actor (Mark Ruffalo), Supporting Actor (Michael Keaton). Possible nominations: Editing.
Steve Jobs (Telluride)
Important because it is really about a genius finding his humanity amid his obsession with tech advancements.
Probable nominations: Picture, Director (Danny Boyle), Actor (Michael Fassbender), Supporting Actress (Kate Winslet), Screenplay (Aaron Sorkin). Possible nominations: Editing, Cinematography, Supporting Actor (Jeff Daniels), Score.
The Martian (Toronto)
Important because it’s about science, about intelligence and survival.
Probable nominations: Best Picture, Best Director (Ridley Scott), Best Actor (Matt Damon), Supporting Actress (Jessica Chastain), Screenplay (Drew Goddard), Visual Effects, Art Direction, Sound, Sound Effects Editing, Editing. Possible nominations: Score.
Carol (Cannes)
Important because it is about the moment when gay rights stopped being something no one stood up for or talked about.
Probable nominations: Picture, Director (Todd Haynes), Screenwriter (Phyllis Nagy), Actress (Cate Blanchett), Supporting Actress (Rooney Mara), Cinematography, Costume, Production Design. Possible nominations: Score, Editing.
Room (Telluride)
Important because it’s about how mothers make a home, no matter where it is.
Probable nominations: Picture, Actress (Brie Larson), Screenplay (Emma Donoghue – the rare novel writer adapting own screenplay), Supporting Actress; Possible nominations: Director, Supporting Actor (Tremblay).
Youth (Cannes)
Important because it’s about mortality, life’s meaning, love, art.
Probable nominations: Actor (Michael Caine), Supporting Actress (Jane Fonda). Possible nominations: Picture, Director/Screenplay (Paolo Sorrentino), Supporting Actress (Rachel Weisz), Supporting Actor (Harvey Keitel), Cinematography, Score.
Truth (Toronto)
Important because it’s about how the Bush administration pressured CBS to destroy one its reporters
Probable nominations: Best Actress (Cate Blanchett). Possible nominations: Supporting Actor (Robert Redford), Picture, Director/Screenplay (James Vanderbilt).
Brooklyn (Sundance)
Important because it’s about a woman finding herself in a new world.
Probable nominations: Picture, Actress (Saoirse Ronan), screenplay (Nick Hornby), Production Direction, Costume Design. Director (John Crowley). Possible nomination: Score.
The Danish Girl (Venice, Toronto)
Important because it’s about the first transgendered woman the world came to know about.
Probable nominations: Best Actor (Eddie Redmayne), Best Actress/Supporting Actress (Alicia Vikander), costume, cinematography, Production Design, Score. Possible nominations: Director (Tom Hooper), Screenplay (Lucinda Coxon).
Beasts of No Nation (Telluride)
Important because it’s about war lords and their victims, about childhood, about poverty.
Probable nominations: Screenplay (Cary Fukunaga), Supporting Actor (Idris Elba). Possible nominations: Picture, Director (Cary Fukunaga), Editing, Cinematography.
Mad Max: Fury Road (General Release, Cannes)
Important because it’s about the apocalypse, women’s rights, a rising up of the oppressed, global warming.
Probable nominations: Visual Effects, Sound, Sound Effects Editing, Editing, Score. Possible nominations: Picture, Director (George Miller), Actress (Charlize Theron), Supporting Actor (Tom Hardy), Screenplay, Cinematography, Costume Design, Production Design.
Love & Mercy (General release)
Important because it’s about mental illness and how it influences or subverts life and art.
Probable nominations: Supporting Actor (Paul Dano), Song (Brian Wilson), Supporting Actress (Elizabeth Banks). Possible nominations: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Art Direction.
Suffragette (Telluride)
Important because it’s about women fighting for the right to vote, which came none too soon and not soon enough.
Probable nominations: Best Actress (Carey Mulligan), costumes, art direction, score. Possible nominations: Picture, Director, Screenplay.
Black Mass (Telluride)
Important because it’s about nailing Whitey Bulger and exposing him as a ruthless killer.
Probable nominations: Johnny Depp. Possible nominations: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Supporting Actor (Joel Edgerton).
Sicario
Important because it’s about the drug trade and drug lords in Mexico.
Probable nominations: Supporting Actor (Benicio Del Toro), Best Actress (Emily Blunt). Possible nominations: Picture, Director, Screenplay, Cinematography, Editing, Sound.
Trumbo
Important because it’s about Hollywood history and blacklisting.
Probable nominations: (Best Actor), Bryan Cranston. Possible nominations: Screenplay, Director (Jay Roach).
Upcoming movies:
The Revenant
Important because it’s an epic struggle of life and death
Possible nominations: Picture, Director (Inarritu), Screenplay, Actor (Leonardo DiCaprio), Supporting Actor (Tom Hardy), Cinematography, Score, Production Design, Editing, Sound, Sound Effects Editing, Visual Effects.
Joy
Important because it’s the rare movie about a woman blazing her own career path
Possible nominations: Picture, Writer/Director (David O. Russell), Actress (Jennifer Lawrence), Supporting Actor (Bradley Cooper), Editing, Makeup.
Bridge of Spies
Important because it’s about patriotism and honor
Possible nominations: Picture, Director (Spielberg), Screenplay (Matt Charman, Ethan Coen, Joel Coen), Actor (Tom Hanks), Supporting Actor (Mark Rylance), Cinematography, Production Design, Editing, Sound, Score.
The Hateful Eight
Important because it’s Tarantino
Possible nominations: Picture, Director/Screenplay (dat Tarantino), Actor (Kurt Russell), Supporting Actress (Jennifer Jason Leigh), Supporting Actor (Samuel L. Jackson), Production Design, Costumes, Cinematography, Editing, Sound, Score.
Creed
Important because it hands the next chapter of the Rocky legend to a young African American boxer trying to make good on his father’s name.
Possible nominations: Picture, Director/Writer (Ryan Coogler), Actor (Michael B. Jordan), editing.
Concussion
Important because it about the serious dangers of playing football and efforts to cover that up.
Possible nominations: Picture, Director/Writer (Peter Landesman), Score, Cinematography, Editing, Costume, Production Design.
Star Wars: The Force Awakens
Important — not really important, just maybe cool.
Possible nominations: Picture, Director (JJ Abrams), Screenplay (JJ Abrams, Lawrence Kasdan, George Lucas), Visual Effects, Sound, Sound Effects Editing, Cinematography, Score, Makeup, Production Design, Costumes.
In the Heart of the Sea
Important because it’s about the origins of Moby Dick’s legacy in our culture.
Possible nominations: Picture, Director (Ron Howard), Screenplay (Charles Leavitt), Production Design, Cinematography, Score, Editing, Sound, Visual Effects.
The Big Short
Important because it’s about Wall Street corruption.
Possible nominations: Picture, Director (Adam McKay), Screenplay (Adam McKay, Charles Randolph), Actor (Christian Bale), Supporting Actors (Ryan Gosling, Steve Carrel).
And now onward to predictions. Remember, it’s important to note two things. First thing to note, these aforementioned films are only those we’ve heard about and know about. There could be other films sneaking in that might get pushed into Best Picture, like Anomalisa, for instance.
The second thing to note — we are trying to predict Best Picture based on “top five,” not “top ten.”
Best Picture
Frontrunners seen by me:
1. Spotlight
2. Steve Jobs
3. The Martian
4. Carol
5. Room
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Beasts of No Nation
8. Youth
9. Love & Mercy
10. Truth
Seen by others, likely bets:
Brooklyn
Son of Saul
The Danish Girl
Trumbo
PREDICTIONS
(Think: white mostly male, mostly straight voters top five best films of the year)
1. Spotlight
2. The Revenant
3. Steve Jobs
4. The Martian
5. The Hateful Eight
6. Bridge of Spies
7. Room
8. Joy
9. Carol
10. Brooklyn
11. Beasts of No Nation
12. Youth
13. The Danish Girl
14. Creed
15. In the Heart of the Sea
16. 45 Years
17. Suffragette
18. Love & Mercy
19. Sicario
20. Concussion
Best Director
Frontrunners seen by me:
1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
2. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
3. David O. Russell, Joy
4. Todd Haynes, Carol
5. Ridley Scott, The Martian
6. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
7. Paolo Sorrentino, Youth
8. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
Seen by others, strong bets:
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Lazlo Nemes, Son of Saul
Still to come
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
David O. Russell, Joy
JJ Abrams, Star Wars
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Ron Howard, In the Heart of the Sea
Robert Zemeckis, The Walk
Predictions
1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
2. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
3. David O. Russell, Joy
4. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
5. Todd Haynes, Carol
alt. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies or Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation or Quentin Tarantino, Hateful Eight
Best Actor
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
2 Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Michael Caine, Youth
4. Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation
5. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
6. John Cusack, Love & Mercy
7. Tobey Maguire, Pawn Sacrifice
8. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
9. Jacob Tremblay, Room
10. Jesse Eisenberg, The End of the Tour
Others have seen, strong contenders:
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hardy, Legend
Jake Gyllenhaal, Demolition and Southpaw
Michael Fassbender, Macbeth
Still to come:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, The Walk
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Prediction
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
3. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Michael Caine, Youth
6. Matt Damon, The Martian
7. Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Supporting Actor
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Harvey Keitel, Youth
2. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
3. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
4. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
5. Robert Redford, Truth
6 Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
7. Tom Courtenay, 45 Years
8. Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
9. Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
10. Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
Still to come:
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Robert De Niro, Joy
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Prediction
1. Harvey Keitel, Youth
2. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
3. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
4. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
5. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
6. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Best Actress
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Cate Blanchett, Truth
2. Brie Larson, Room
3. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
5. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
7. Juliette Binoche, The Clouds of Sils Maria
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See you in my Dreams
Others have seen/Strong contenders
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Still to come:
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Prediction
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Cate Blanchett, Truth or Carol
3. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Supporting Actress
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Rooney Mara, Carol
2. Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy
3. Jane Fonda, Youth
4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
5. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
6. Ann-Marie Duff, Suffragette
7. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Still to come
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Jessica Chastain, The Martian
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Amy Ryan, Bridge of Spies
Prediction
1. Rooney Mara, Carol
2. Jane Fonda, Youth
3. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
4. Jessica Chastain, The Martian
5. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
6. Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy or Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Adapted screenplay
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
2. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
3. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
4. Drew Goddard, The Martian
5. Emma O’Donoghue, Room
6. Andrew Haigh, 45 Years
Still to come:
Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
Prediction
1. Steve Jobs
2. Carol
3. The Martian
4. Brooklyn
5. Beast of No Nation
6. Bridge of Spies
Original screenplay
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
2. Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Inside Out
3. Abi Morgan, Suffragette
4. Paul Weitz, Grandma
5. Oren Movermen, Michael A. Lerner, Love & Mercy
6. Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Still to come:
Charlie Kaufman, Duke Johnson, Anomalisa
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
David O. Russell, Joy
Prediction
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. Anomalisa
4. The Hateful Eight
5. Joy
Random predictions
Best animated feature film of the year
Inside Out
Anomalisa
The Peanuts Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Minions
Achievement in cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. The Hateful Eight
3. In the Heart of the Sea
4. Carol
5. The Danish Girl
Achievement in costume design
1. Carol
2. Suffragette
3. Cinderella
4. The Danish Girl
5. The Hateful Eight
Best documentary feature
1. Time to Choose
2. Going Clear
3. What Happened, Miss Simone?
4. Winter on Fire
5. The Look of Silence
Achievement in film editing
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. Mad Max
4. The Martian
5. The Hateful Eight
Best foreign language film of the year
Son of Saul (Hungary)
The Assassin (Taiwan)
The Second Mother (Brazil)
Mustang (France)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany
Achievement in production design
Carol
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Star Wars
Achievement in sound editing
The Revenant
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Inside Out
Star Wars
Achievement in sound mixing
Star Wars
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Son of Saul
The Hateful Eight
Achievement in visual effects
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars
Everest
Jurassic World*
In the Heart of the Sea