The Oscars are like a tree. Anne Thompson’s theory about building a Best Picture contender “branch by branch” is spot on. From the early days of Oscar until now, almost every category that can relate back to Best Picture almost always does. Aye, but here’s the rub: how to find Best Director now when the Best Picture category has more than five nominees. From the mid-1940s until 2009 there were five Best Picture contenders and five Best Director contenders. Now that the rules have interfered with the straightforward one-to-one correspondence, the Best Director category has become a much less important indicator than it used to be in terms of deciding Best Picture. The reason for this is due to two significant factors.
Argo changed everything
The first, there are more Best Picture contenders. The year after Argo, the vote split easily, with Alfonso Cuaron taking Director and 12 Years a Slave taking Picture. Last year, Birdman took both, settling things back to the way they used to be. But still, there is the commonly held belief that Picture and Director are no longer as tightly bound as they used to be. After all, if Argo could win the PGA, the SAG and the DGA and Best Picture, did it even matter if the 400 voters in the Academy’s Director branch omitted his name? No, it didn’t matter.
The second, greater disparity between Academy voters and DGA members. Around 400 voters in the directing branch turn in their ballots before the much larger DGA (14,500 members) announce their five nominees. In the old days, the Golden Globes would announce their five, then the DGA would be the biggest influencer, helping to build a consensus around five names, give or take one or two. That consensus helps build momentum for Best Picture.
What happened in 2012 was that the momentum was supposed to be building for Ben Affleck and Argo. For the first time in their long-conjoined history, the Academy’s director branch turned in their ballots before getting a look at the consensus building DGA’s list of five. The Oscar nominees were announced and neither Ben Affleck nor and Kathryn Bigelow was among them. The DGA then announced their five and of course both Affleck and Bigelow were included. Why does it matter? The DGA helps to build prestige and of course the kind of momentum any Best Picture/Best Director needs to win the whole thing. But of course we know that Argo won anyway, nullifying that need for a DGA consensus building moment.
This year, once again, the Academy voters will turn in their ballots before the DGA announce. Depending on how it goes, the results could be as dramatic as 2012, where only two names matched between DGA and Oscar, or like last year where only four out of five matched, which is how it often goes anyway, with or without the DGA as an influencer. We don’t know what this year will be like because we don’t know if there are a few movies voters will align themselves for — or whether the vote will be more spread out. We’ll eventually get there but right now it’s too soon to know.
To find Best Director this year, we’re looking for big movies. We’re looking for films people will like — after all, can you imagine that we just lived through Morten Tyldum getting a Best Director nomination last year over David Fincher, Paul Thomas Anderson, Mike Leigh, Ava DuVernay or Clint Eastwood, to name a few. Who’d have thunk it? The Imitation Game, as good as it was, seemed not as worthy of a Best Director nomination by that selective group of 400 — yet that’s exactly the kind of film they wanted to reward.
Here is how it’s gone down since the Academy’s ballots began being turned in before the DGA announced:
2014
Golden Globes | DGA | Oscar |
Inarritu (Birdman) | Inarritu (Birdman) | Inarritu (Birdman) |
David Fincher (Gone Girl) | Tyldum (Imitation Game) | Tyldum (Imitation Game) |
Anderson (Grand Budapest Hotel) | Anderson (Grand Budapest Hotel) | Anderson (Grand Budapest Hotel) |
Linklater (Boyhood) | Linklater (Boyhood) | Linklater (Boyhood) |
DuVernay (Selma) | Eastwood (American Sniper) | Miller (Foxcatcher) |
2013
Golden Globes | DGA | Oscar |
Gravity: Alfonso Cuarón | Gravity: Alfonso Cuarón | Gravity: Alfonso Cuarón |
12 Years a Slave: Steve McQueen | 12 Years a Slave: Steve McQueen | 12 Years a Slave: Steve McQueen |
American Hustle: David O. Russell | American Hustle: David O. Russell | American Hustle: David O. Russell |
Nebraska: Alexander Payne | Nebraska: Alexander Payne | |
Captain Phillips: Paul Greengrass | Captain Phillips: Paul Greengrass | |
Wolf of Wall St: Martin Scorsese | Wolf of Wall St: Martin Scorsese |
2012
Golden Globes | DGA | Oscar |
Life of Pi: Ang Lee | Life of Pi: Ang Lee | Life of Pi: Ang Lee |
Zero Dark Thirty: Kathryn Bigelow | Zero Dark Thirty: Kathryn Bigelow | Amour: Michael Haneke |
Ben Affleck: Argo | Ben Affleck: Argo | Silver Linings Playbook: David O. Russell |
Lincoln: Steven Spielberg | Lincoln: Steven Spielberg | Lincoln: Steven Spielberg |
Django Unchained: Quentin Tarantino | Tom Hooper: Les Mis | Beasts of the Southern Wild: Benh Zeitlin |
As you can see, in 2012 there was more upset but in the past two years the DGA/Oscar match up looks more or less like it always has looked — with no more than one or two names unmatched.
What kind of a year will this one be? Will it be an all over the place year with many contending films or will it look like last year, with not as many films, so that there are only eight Best Picture contenders named instead of nine (word has it, ten is an impossible number to reach)? What are the films that are good, great even, versus the ones the Academy will like?
They like people they know. That’s one thing about them. It’s a boys club ruled by cronyism — all the more surprising that Clint Eastwood didn’t make the cut last year. Either way, what we do know is that the directing category is a flattering nomination, no doubt, and makes winning Best Picture a lot easier, but it is nowhere near as influential as it used to be.
Directors enter the race with an “Oscar story” and a career arc. This year, no one has a better career arc than David O. Russell who has been at bat three times in as many years and never won. Sooner or later, he’s headed for that win — it is likely just a matter of time. Joy will put the full force of Jennifer Lawrence to carry a Russell film for the first time. The two work so well together that there’s a very good chance it will be a knock-out. It doesn’t really matter if you like his films — the point is, the Academy likes his films. The bigger point: the actors all like him and his films. That will likely put David O. Russell in the race in some fashion, whether the 400 directors in the Academy decide to put him there or not.
Right behind him is Ridley Scott. Can we talk about Ridley Scott for a minute? That he hasn’t yet won a Best Director Oscar is astounding. Even when his Gladiator won Best Picture, Scott lost to Stephen Soderberg. (In a year when precursors were all over the map, splitting three ways between Scott, Ang Lee and Soderberg, it would be really hard to argue with any of those three winning the Oscar). Scott has been nominated three times, even with both Black Hawk Down and Thelma and Louise not getting a Best Picture nomination. He’s directed two of the best films ever made, unequivocally — Alien and Bladerunner. Even his bad movies have at least been interesting. Let’s face it, he’s way, way, WAY overdue for an Oscar win. He has had to kiss a lot of frogs to get where he has arrived with The Martian. I don’t know if the film industry will see it that way but it’s hard to look at this year so far and not see it that way.
Third, Todd Haynes has also been inexplicably shut out of the cool kids club for quite some time now. We can excuse them for not liking his Bob Dylan masterpiece I’m Not There, and perhaps they were put off by the homage factor of Far From Heaven (that gorgeous, groundbreaking film). There is no good reason for them to not honor Haynes for Carol — this glorious, moving love story. We Todd Haynes fans have gotten so used to their overlooking him and disregarding him that it’s dangerous to even hope they will go there. Carol started its run in Cannes, which can be tricky. Too much buzz too early can lead to a backlash, which Carol has probably been getting a bit of. In the careful hands of the Weinstein Co., however, it seems like this might at last be the movie for the Academy to finally welcome Todd Haynes with open arms (not holding my breath).
And then there’s Quentin Tarantino. Two-time screenwriting winner, one of the greatest American directors and yet has never won Best Picture nor Best Director. Not for Pulp Fiction and not for Inglourious Basterds. The Academy, and the industry overall, seem to love Tarantino but perhaps they don’t quite yet see him in his “The Departed” phase where they will award him for a film that doesn’t give them the feels.
Finally, another Oscar story is Cary Fukanaga whose masterpiece, Beast of No Nations, was so intense every studio passed on. This unflinching look at a young boy’s life as a soldier in Africa is as beautiful as it is heart wrenching. It’s a tough sit and word has it the industry voters are too big of pussies have difficulty handling such rough material. You know, the ones who like things all tied up neatly, preferably taking place back in the 1930s or 1940s when things were easier to understand? It is a no-brainer to see Fukunaga as potentially one of the five. Whether it is accepted or rejected does not take away the ambition. After all, just look at Ridley Scott’s Bladerunner, nominated for Art Direction and Visual Effects only.
Most of the other directors potentially in the race are working from a “career arc” perspective. Can Steven Spielberg continue his long reign of DGA and Oscar nominations? Could he possibly win his third, putting him in the very select company of John Ford, William Wyler and Frank Capra? Spielberg, like Scorsese, is just one of those directors who simply likes making movies. He challenges himself in a different way every time and, as my 17-year-old daughter said about him recently, “he could take a flashlight and a camera phone and make a great movie.” And you know what? He totally could.
Alejandro G. Inarritu is working out his own career arc, having just won last year. Can he pull a double hitter? More importantly, will The Revenant be yet another work of genius from this adventurous and creative director? If his Birdman last year was like a thesis and a challenge to Hollywood to stop making bank off of shitty superhero movies, can he then rise to his own challenge and deliver a big, wide, hard core, artistically daring survival epic? Well, he probably can. It remains to be seen if the film will be “Oscar friendly.” Think: Morton Tyldum.
Tom McCarthy is the name about town at the moment, having the most liked and least hated film of the festival circuit. More than that, Spotlight is good. Really really good. He painstakingly set out to make an authentic film set in a different time to tell us in a subtle way that we must value and preserve real journalism. It matters. McCarthy is on his way now, thanks to Spotlight, to becoming a big name director in town. Where he goes from here will continue that story.
George Miller made his first Mad Max movies back in the early 80s. He’s back with the fourth installment and quite possibly the best of the four. It may or may not end up a classic, like the first one, but it is far and away one of the best films of 2015. Miller attacks the action with non-stop ferocity, quite the opposite of the kid-orieted movies he’s been making lately, like Babe and Happy Feet. Miller is an old timer and that could be what keeps his name at the top of the list.
Let’s look at predictions this week.
Best Picture
Frontrunners seen by me (no change):
1. Spotlight
2. The Martian
3. Steve Jobs
4. Carol
5. Room
6. Mad Max: Fury Road
7. Beasts of No Nation
8. Youth
9. Love & Mercy
10. Truth
Seen by others, likely bets:
Brooklyn
Son of Saul
The Danish Girl
Trumbo
Not seen yet:
In the Heart of the Sea
Joy
Creed
The Big Short
The Hateful Eight
PREDICTIONS – most likely for a nomination
1. The Martian
2. Spotlight
3. The Revenant (sight unseen)
4. Steve Jobs
5. Joy
5. The Hateful Eight (Sight unseen)
6. Bridge of Spies (Sight unseen)
7. Room
8. Youth
9. Carol
10. Brooklyn
11. Beasts of No Nation
12. In the Heart of the Sea
13. The Danish Girl
14. Creed
15. Concussion
16. 45 Years
17. Suffragette
18. Love & Mercy
19. Sicario
20. The Big Short
Best Director
Frontrunners seen by me:
1. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
2. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
3. David O. Russell, Joy
4. Todd Haynes, Carol
5. Ridley Scott, The Martian
6. Danny Boyle, Steve Jobs
7. Paolo Sorrentino, Youth
8. George Miller, Mad Max: Fury Road
9. Lenny Abramson, Room
Seen by others, strong bets:
John Crowley, Brooklyn
Lazlo Nemes, Son of Saul
Still to come
Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies
David O. Russell, Joy
JJ Abrams, Star Wars
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
Ron Howard, In the Heart of the Sea
Robert Zemeckis, The Walk
Predictions
1. Ridley Scott, The Martian
2. Tom McCarthy, Spotlight
3. Alejandro G. Inarritu, The Revenant
4. David O. Russell, Joy
5. Todd Haynes, Carol
alt. Steven Spielberg, Bridge of Spies or Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation or Quentin Tarantino, Hateful Eight
Best Actor
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
2. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
3. Michael Caine, Youth
4. Abraham Attah, Beasts of No Nation
5. Mark Ruffalo, Spotlight
6. John Cusack, Love & Mercy
7. Tobey Maguire, Pawn Sacrifice
8. Ian McKellen, Mr. Holmes
9. Jacob Tremblay, Room
10. Jesse Eisenberg, The End of the Tour
Others have seen, strong contenders:
Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
Bryan Cranston, Trumbo
Tom Hardy, Legend
Jake Gyllenhaal, Demolition and Southpaw
Michael Fassbender, Macbeth
Still to come:
Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
Tom Hanks, Bridge of Spies
Joseph Gordon-Levitt, The Walk
Michael B. Jordan, Creed
Prediction
1. Leonardo DiCaprio, The Revenant
2. Matt Damon, The Martian
3. Johnny Depp, Black Mass
4. Eddie Redmayne, The Danish Girl
5. Michael Fassbender, Steve Jobs
6. Michael Caine, Youth
Supporting Actor
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Harvey Keitel, Youth
2. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
3. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
4. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
5. Robert Redford, Truth
6 Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
7. Tom Courtenay, 45 Years
8. Joel Edgerton, Black Mass
9. Jason Segel, The End of the Tour
10. Oscar Isaac, Ex Machina
Still to come:
Tom Hardy, The Revenant
Robert De Niro, Joy
Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Prediction
1. Paul Dano, Love & Mercy
2. Idris Elba, Beasts of No Nation
3. Harvey Keitel, Youth
4. Michael Keaton, Spotlight
5. Tom Hardy, The Revenant
6. Mark Rylance, Bridge of Spies
Best Actress
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Cate Blanchett, Truth
2. Brie Larson, Room
3. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
4. Charlotte Rampling, 45 Years
5. Charlize Theron, Mad Max: Fury Road
6. Lily Tomlin, Grandma
7. Juliette Binoche, The Clouds of Sils Maria
8. Blythe Danner, I’ll See you in my Dreams
Others have seen/Strong contenders
Maggie Smith, The Lady in the Van
Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
Marion Cotillard, Macbeth
Still to come:
Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Prediction
1. Brie Larson, Room
2. Cate Blanchett, Truth or Carol
3. Carey Mulligan, Suffragette
4. Saoirse Ronan, Brooklyn
5. Jennifer Lawrence, Joy
Supporting Actress
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Rooney Mara, Carol
2. Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy
3. Jane Fonda, Youth
4. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
5. Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
6. Ann-Marie Duff, Suffragette
7. Rachel McAdams, Spotlight
Still to come
Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
Jessica Chastain, The Martian
Jennifer Jason Leigh, The Hateful Eight
Amy Ryan, Bridge of Spies
Prediction
1. Rooney Mara, Carol
2. Alicia Vikander, The Danish Girl
3. Kate Winslet, Steve Jobs
4. Jessica Chastain, The Martian
5. Jane Fonda, Youth
6. Elizabeth Banks, Love & Mercy or Kristen Stewart, Clouds of Sils Maria
Adapted screenplay
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Aaron Sorkin, Steve Jobs
2. Phyllis Nagy, Carol
3. Cary Fukunaga, Beasts of No Nation
4. Drew Goddard, The Martian
5. Emma O’Donoghue, Room
6. Andrew Haigh, 45 Years
Still to come:
Charlie Kaufman, Anomalisa
Nick Hornby, Brooklyn
Matt Charman, Joel & Ethan Coen, Bridge of Spies
Prediction
1. Steve Jobs
2. Carol
3. The Martian
4. Anomalisa
5. Beast of No Nation
6. Brooklyn
7. Bridge of Spies
Original screenplay
Frontrunners I’ve seen:
1. Tom McCarthy and Josh Singer, Spotlight
2. Pete Docter, Meg LeFauve, Josh Cooley, Inside Out
3. Abi Morgan, Suffragette
4. Paul Weitz, Grandma
5. Oren Movermen, Michael A. Lerner, Love & Mercy
6. Alex Garland, Ex Machina
Still to come:
Quentin Tarantino, The Hateful Eight
David O. Russell, Joy
Prediction
1. Spotlight
2. Inside Out
3. The Hateful Eight
4. Joy
Random predictions
Best animated feature film of the year
Inside Out
Anomalisa
The Peanuts Movie
The Good Dinosaur
Minions
Achievement in cinematography
1. The Revenant
2. The Martian
3. In the Heart of the Sea
4. Carol
5. The Walk
Achievement in costume design
1. Carol
2. Suffragette
3. Cinderella
4. The Danish Girl
5. The Hateful Eight
Best documentary feature
1. He Named Me Malala
2. Going Clear
3. What Happened, Miss Simone?
4. Winter on Fire
5. The Look of Silence
Achievement in film editing
1. The Revenant
2. Spotlight
3. Mad Max
4. The Martian
5. The Hateful Eight
Best foreign language film of the year
Son of Saul (Hungary)
The Assassin (Taiwan)
The Second Mother (Brazil)
Mustang (France)
Labyrinth of Lies (Germany
Achievement in production design
Carol
The Revenant
Bridge of Spies
The Martian
Star Wars
Achievement in sound editing
The Revenant
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Inside Out
Star Wars
Achievement in sound mixing
Star Wars
Jurassic World
Mad Max: Fury Road
Son of Saul
The Hateful Eight
Achievement in visual effects
Mad Max: Fury Road
Star Wars
Everest
Jurassic World*
In the Heart of the Sea
Only a few changes here or there, but wanted to post this sooner rather than later.